• Member Statistics

    16,026
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Bobby Orr
    Newest Member
    Bobby Orr
    Joined
JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, StormChazer said:

00Z Euro Control Vs the latest 12Z run Control.

Now we see if tonight continues the trend.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-scentus-total_snow_10to1-6627200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-scentus-total_snow_10to1-6627200 (1).png

Piggybacking off this to show the latest control. Trending more in our area.

D2503A50-771C-4C62-83AF-ADD12652CA9C.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone have a breakdown of the ensembles? I looked at the 12z ensembles last night, and there were several with decent hits. Did 0z continue that trend?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Anyone have a breakdown of the ensembles? I looked at the 12z ensembles last night, and there were several with decent hits. Did 0z continue that trend?

I'll do a breakdown of all 50 members here shortly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Here are my findings for the 00Z Euro run members. For S&G I ran the same deal on the 12Z afternoon run yesterday(see below).

 

00Z-12/10

0      3, 36,37,40,43,45,46,48,        Total:8

<1    4*,9,12,13*,16,18,24,27,30*,32,34,35,39,49, Total:14

1-3    1,5,10,11,14,15*,23,26,29,38,41,42*,44*,50  Total:14

3+    2,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,22,25,28,31,33,47  Total:14

 

* on edge of 3+

 

 

 

Here is the 21Z run from yesterday.

12Z-12/9/19

0      3,7,8,15,16,17,28,29,30,32,33,35,38,41,42,47,48,49 Total:18

<1    2,12,14,20,34,36,46,50 Total:8

1-3   1, 6,11,19,21,23,24,31,37,45, Total:10

3+    4, 5,9,10,13,18,22,25,26,27,39,40,43,44, Total:14

As you can see, 10 members moved from a no-snow solution to snow, excited to see the noon run today.1468105700_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-scentus-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-6713600(1).thumb.png.0cc3477131a96bdb1a44fbf6f448643d.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-scentus-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-6713600 (1).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well there certainly seems to be decent agreement from all the major global models for some sort of system in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The GFS, Euro & GEM were all showing some snow as of last night's runs. It has got my attention for maybe the first time this season here in Wichita. I'm now in check the models daily mode and hopefully the trend continues over the next 72 hours. Feels like it's been forever since we had a good snow here. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work.

Im not gonna get too worried about a single model run 5-6 days out. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Holy moly is this happens. This is the last day before Christmas break for many public schools in Oklahoma.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Energy still digging in the SW, going to be a massive snow and ice storm on the 12z GFS after 228. 

Holy cow, could you even imagine? On the shortest day of the year no less.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know we are talking about 1 run on a system 9-10 days out, but this is pure eye candy.

It can't even comprehend the sleet totals, lol. But the max says 7.5 inches of sleet.

2.64 inches of freezing rain

18 inches of snow.

gfs-deterministic-scentus-sleet_total-7102400.png

gfs-deterministic-scentus-total_snow_10to1-7102400.png

gfs-deterministic-scentus-frzr_total-7102400.png

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Such great weather porn! 

Back to reality, and the 12z canadian has a bit less snow and a sharper cutoff a bit farther north than the 00z run.

gem_asnow_scus_25.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on a quick low-res look at the 12z GFS Ensembles. I wouldn't count out anything wrt the 15th-17thish system. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Main precip shield is looking further south but not quite as strong as of hour 126.

 

Edit: looking like more lagging juice with this run though, so might see similar totals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Main precip shield is looking further south but not quite as strong as of hour 126.

But it comes back with a stronger band later on. I dig. But it's a really precarious situation. Nice "4" inch snowfall for Joplin and Tulsa. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it looks like about a 60 mile wide band of the heaviest snow, outside of that, respectable to the north, quick decline south. 

A run I'd be more than happy with resolving.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-oklahoma-total_snow_10to1-6562400.thumb.png.2a319c982c2ffed069d68d0ea8af9876.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

None of us are surprised with the major difference between the GFS and the Euro.  Southern end of measurable snow is Fayetteville on the Euro and Kansas City on the GFS. Only 250 mile difference.  And the Canadian splits the uprights.   I think we all agree to lean towards the Euro even if it wasn’t currently in our favor. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the GFS has a bias of scouring out cold air too quickly, but it's really going to come down to the orientation of the trough which won't be known for a few more days. Many more model runs to watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There were a few very impressive members on the Euro ensemble. Close to 20 members showed roughly 3+ for the springfield area. 

 

Is there somewhere you can publicly view the GFS ensembles?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

There were a few very impressive members on the Euro ensemble. Close to 20 members showed roughly 3+ for the springfield area. 

 

Is there somewhere you can publicly view the GFS ensembles?

I'll post the 12Z ensembles shortly.

Not sure if there's any free public options.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.