MUWX Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, StormChazer said: I'll post the 12Z ensembles shortly. Not sure if there's any free public options. I can find the Euro ensembles super easily but I have never been able to find the GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 So initial thoughts, the GFS backs off the first round of precip on Sun night, but the 2nd round is still in play, and technically comes a touch closer to Northern OK than the 12Z run, it's also looking at this point that the big winter storm on the 12Z run is still in play, but it hasn't gone that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: There were a few very impressive members on the Euro ensemble. Close to 20 members showed roughly 3+ for the springfield area. Is there somewhere you can publicly view the GFS ensembles? The awful looking ones are still here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: I can find the Euro ensembles super easily but I have never been able to find the GFS ensembles Took it out to the 17th so as not to be influenced by the monster afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 This was posted on KFOR in Okc FB page on 12/10 around 7:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, lokee said: This was posted on KFOR in Okc FB page on 12/10 around 7:45 Seems like this is already starting to get a decent of media attention. Probably the kiss of death 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 00z GFS looking to stick pretty close to it's 18z solution on the first storm. EDIT: 00z GEM is a hair farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GFS looking to stick pretty close to it's 18z solution on the first storm. Canadian still doesn’t look too bad. Definitely more in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 6z GFS has the low in perfect position to give Oklahoma a lot of wintery type precipitation Sunday Night early Monday, 12/15- 12/ 16, but it shows no activity with it till it kicks out into NE Oklahoma. That Friday storm is still showing up but all rain now and a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just as much spread on the 0z ensembles as there was on the 12z. Lots of bust, several boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Anyone know if the 06Z and 18Z runs of the Euro are ever worth looking at? Because the 06Z runs on the Euro push the snow a touch south of last night's run which would benefit most all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just now, StormChazer said: Anyone know if the 06Z and 18Z runs of the Euro are ever worth looking at? Probably about as much as the GFS, if I were to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z GFS looks to be a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Yeah, inched south a decent amount, more towards the euro as opposed to the other way around. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows. FWIW the 06Z euro members upped our snow chances from the 00Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Oklahoma Mesonet explanation of events and why it is so hard to call for something so many days out. http://ticker.mesonet.org/?fbclid=IwAR3YrcuPFSk1IeD59wKHFEpCT1L_XwzKGXaedoJf7A7I7GR4qt3NLybGLio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 OK, here are the latest 5 Euro runs. I analyzed the snowfall amounts in a 100 mile radius of Tulsa. Here are my results. Looking for trends here. Number of members from each run are indicated below. 0 Inches. 18,8,6,3,2 Summary: looks more and more likely that a "no snow" option is out the door. Under 1 inch. 8,14,15,20,19 Summary: Better than nothing, but an underwhelming category. Goes up over recent runs, mainly converting "no snow" options to minimal snow(so still positive). 1-3 inches. 10,14,12,14,11 Summary: This is a broad category that I'll refine in future analysis, some of these are 1 inch across half the area, others are a solid 2 inches across everywhere. Regardless, this option remains pretty steady consisting of about 20%-25% of the members. 3+ inches, 14,14,17,13,18 Summary: Some of these are BOMBS, some are just a respectable swath of 3-4 inches, some give half the area a winter storm while leaving the other half out high and dry. Point is, this category has remained pretty steady throughout the last couple days. Last night's run brought it down to a low, but then the 6Z brought it up to a high(don't know if we can trust the 6z). If the 12Z this afternoon brings this category back to last night's, then we can throw out the 6Z. So it looks like someone within 100 mile radius of Tulsa is pretty much guaranteed to get snow, could be a trace, could be a good dumping. Time to wait for the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: OK, here are the latest 5 Euro runs. I analyzed the snowfall amounts in a 100 mile radius of Tulsa. Here are my results. Looking for trends here. Number of members from each run are indicated below. 0 Inches. 18,8,6,3,2 Summary: looks more and more likely that a "no snow" option is out the door. Under 1 inch. 8,14,15,20,19 Summary: Better than nothing, but an underwhelming category. Goes up over recent runs, mainly converting "no snow" options to minimal snow(so still positive). 1-3 inches. 10,14,12,14,11 Summary: This is a broad category that I'll refine in future analysis, some of these are 1 inch across half the area, others are a solid 2 inches across everywhere. Regardless, this option remains pretty steady consisting of about 20%-25% of the members. 3+ inches, 14,14,17,13,18 Summary: Some of these are BOMBS, some are just a respectable swath of 3-4 inches, some give half the area a winter storm while leaving the other half out high and dry. Point is, this category has remained pretty steady throughout the last couple days. Last night's run brought it down to a low, but then the 6Z brought it up to a high(don't know if we can trust the 6z). If the 12Z this afternoon brings this category back to last night's, then we can throw out the 6Z. So it looks like someone within 100 mile radius of Tulsa is pretty much guaranteed to get snow, could be a trace, could be a good dumping. Time to wait for the 12Z Euro. Is the 06z available any where publicly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I don't think so. i can post the members on here if you'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z Canadian is going to be farther south with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z Canadian takes the band of snow North of I40 into Northern Oklahoma, as far South as Stillwater, and on up into Ks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Looks to me like the current “consensus” is for Southern MO to have the best chances as it stands. Obviously a LONG way to go. GFS tucking south is a good sign. We’ll see what the Canadian and Euro has to stay. Bottom line is nothing is off the table yet. Edit: As you all just pointed out, nice trend on the Canadian but still what I call an I-44 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Looks to me like the current “consensus” is for Southern MO to have the best chances as it stands. Obviously a LONG way to go. GFS tucking south is a good sign. We’ll see what the Canadian and Euro has to stay. Bottom line is nothing is off the table yet. Depends on how you define southern MO. I think somewhere between the I70 and I44 corridor is in the best place ATM. A long ways to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I'll agree with MUWX's assessment that the bulls eye right now is between I-70 and I-44. Something to keep in mind here is that this isn't the typical winter system we have out here, where we have a huge low coming out and a large precip shield. Rather, this is a rather weak low and the event will be driven by warm air advection processes. The whole forecast is going to hinge on where the baroclinic zone sets up, as that will be the axis that sees the 2-8" snows. Overall, for it being >3 days out, the models have a good agreement on some type of winter storm out here this weekend. It will be nice to see some snow over a widespread area, since most of us have been dry for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: I'll agree with MUWX's assessment that the bulls eye right now is between I-70 and I-44. Something to keep in mind here is that this isn't the typical winter system we have out here, where we have a huge low coming out and a large precip shield. Rather, this is a rather weak low and the event will be driven by warm air advection processes. The whole forecast is going to hinge on where the baroclinic zone sets up, as that will be the axis that sees the 2-8" snows. Overall, for it being >3 days out, the models have a good agreement on some type of winter storm out here this weekend. It will be nice to see some snow over a widespread area, since most of us have been dry for a while. Indeed, also, we don't want this to be a strong system as that will simply give us all rain. Instead, this wave needs to be pretty flat/weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, MUWX said: Depends on how you define southern MO. I think somewhere between the I70 and I44 corridor is in the best place ATM. A long ways to go though Agreed. I was being a bit generic. I-44 and north seems to be the best bet right now. Maybe some counties in NE OK could squeak about warning criteria so we can get that monkey off our backs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Noticing some changes in hour 102 in the euro, waiting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Hour 111 difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 This run is looking more south but weaker, colder air pushing further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Hour 129 Diff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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