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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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32 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Is nice to see isnt it, its a nice light snow now shame its not a smidge colder cause everything is wet from it. MoWeatherGuy, anything up there? I hope you are getting to see this too man

 

20190113_212215-1040x780-01.thumb.jpeg.27f189ae4d7dc6dcd9bfbe22ef6497e5.jpeg

Yah surprisingly got a little dusting here around Springdale.

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33 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Wasn't forecasted at all.  1st trace of the year.

Cool you didn't miss this unexpected lil event. Grass is white. I just read Tulsas 9:30 writeup, they sound lost as to what is causing this and mentioned lake effect snow...said nothing is really showing up on radar either. Well it is super cloudy(has been all day) and the humidity is at 100 percent almost so yea maybe. Ok done yappin, gonna enjoy the snow

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Lake effect snow is/was occurring tonight from the north in the Joplin to Springfield area originating from Stockton Lake.

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7 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Cool you didn't miss this unexpected lil event. Grass is white. I just read Tulsas 9:30 writeup, they sound lost as to what is causing this and mentioned lake effect snow...said nothing is really showing up on radar either. Well it is super cloudy(has been all day) and the humidity is at 100 percent almost so yea maybe. Ok done yappin, gonna enjoy the snow

Wow, have to say that's the first I've heard of lake effect around here.   Had it up in SW Mo some tho as Garfan mentioned. 

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Well here in Wichita, I'm certainly curious to see what the Friday/Saturday time frame can do. Last nights ECWMF run certainly caught my attention. I'm not holding my breath as we have been missed from all sides this year. However, when the Euro says something I typically listen. Still 5 days out though, so we'll see if it remains consistent over the next few days. 

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4 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Wow, have to say that's the first I've heard of lake effect around here.   Had it up in SW Mo some tho as Garfan mentioned. 

Yea pretty crazy for sure! But they said that was up in missouri around stockton lake, I guess that's what was causing it here too? That writeup had me scratching my head some lol

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3 hours ago, RocketWX said:

Well here in Wichita, I'm certainly curious to see what the Friday/Saturday time frame can do. Last nights ECWMF run certainly caught my attention. I'm not holding my breath as we have been missed from all sides this year. However, when the Euro says something I typically listen. Still 5 days out though, so we'll see if it remains consistent over the next few days. 

Agree with this. When you look at the winds that are progged behind the cold front, we could very easily have blizzard conditions over a wide area if this comes to pass. 

FWIW, the 12z GFS ensembles had a much snowier solution than the operational run. 

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Man the skies off to the west look like snow again tonight! The air has that feel and smell to it (I know that sounds stupid but sometimes like rain you can just smell it in the air lol).

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hmmmm..wondering how much the weekend storm can dig and how low is the HP above it going to be? 18Z ICON looks similar to the GHD storm of 2011. 

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1 hour ago, ouamber said:

hmmmm..wondering how much the weekend storm can dig and how low is the HP above it going to be? 18Z ICON looks similar to the GHD storm of 2011. 

I don’t get lost very often but, what is the ICON and GHD storm?

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12 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

I don’t get lost very often but, what is the ICON and GHD storm?

ICON is a model, and Groundhog Day storm from 2011. 

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10 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

Thanks. I’ve never heard of ICON :(

 

No worries! I think it's one of the newer ones on tropical tidbits, but I know nothing about it, lol. 

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I raced home to beat that storm the day before it happened...

It was fun driving around town looking at all the people in minivans stuck in the snow. My truck sits high off the ground and was still hitting the snow with the bumper in areas. I'd love for that to happen again...

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1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said:

Buddy of mine just told me he was stuck in Sapulpa for several days after the GHD storm.

bring it!!!

We lived in Tulsa and had to walk a mile to the Walgreens for milk and bread! I lived in an apartment complex and my car was buried for two weeks! Good times! I ate so much snow ice cream!

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Someone is going to get slammed with the weekend storm. Chiefs fans... it may be harder to sit through the game this weekend at Arrowhead... with snow and temps in the single digits and below zero wind chills. Yikes. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Someone is going to get slammed with the weekend storm. Chiefs fans... it may be harder to sit through the game this weekend at Arrowhead... with snow and temps in the single digits and below zero wind chills. Yikes. 

 

I just have a feeling southern mo is going to get slammed with cold rain again, because that's what we do. 

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For Tulsa county, running H/L averages using GFS, v3, CMC, ICON, GEM, GEFS1-20, Euro1-50, C, M:

Low end average of 1.4 - high end average 2.5 with an overall average of 1.9.

Not super exciting at this point.

 

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19 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Someone is going to get slammed with the weekend storm. Chiefs fans... it may be harder to sit through the game this weekend at Arrowhead... with snow and temps in the single digits and below zero wind chills. Yikes. 

 

Here's a look at 925 mb winds based off the GFS for Saturday morning at 6 am. The red indicates winds at 50-55 kts about 2000 feet off the surface. If this verifies, then we may very well have blizzard conditions across C & E KS into parts of West Missouri. 

GFSCGP_925_spd_096.png

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39 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I just have a feeling southern mo is going to get slammed with cold rain again, because that's what we do. 

Not this time my friend. We may not get much snow... but cold rain won't be the show in town this time. 

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5 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Not this time my friend. We may not get much snow... but cold rain won't be the show in town this time. 

I can't get behind some light snow I suppose 

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It will be interesting to see how well models handle the cold air. Most globals don't handle artic air well, and tend to be slow with it. Plus it seems like there will be snow on the ground still north of us. Would a quicker arrival of the colder air, push the system further south?

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44 minutes ago, MUWX said:

It will be interesting to see how well models handle the cold air. Most globals don't handle artic air well, and tend to be slow with it. Plus it seems like there will be snow on the ground still north of us. Would a quicker arrival of the colder air, push the system further south?

The latest Euro must be dry slotting this region.  Heavier snows are east of here. 

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46 minutes ago, MUWX said:

It will be interesting to see how well models handle the cold air. Most globals don't handle artic air well, and tend to be slow with it. Plus it seems like there will be snow on the ground still north of us. Would a quicker arrival of the colder air, push the system further south?

I'm not sure it would push it further south,  just maybe give more frozen due to quicker transition. 

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For those interested, here is the average(mean) of all 50 ensembles over the last 5 runs of the Euro.

As you can see, there is definitely a trend to higher amounts in NE Oklahoma. 

 

In order from oldest to newest.

eps_snow_m_tx_25.png

eps_snow_m_tx_25 (1).png

eps_snow_m_tx_25 (2).png

eps_snow_m_tx_25 (3).png

eps_snow_m_tx_25 (4).png

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Thanks for the trend images.

I would love to see 3-5 around here but, based on recent trends, I expect the models to start moving the system too far N or dry slot us. I do like where the NAM is placing the L in SW OK at the end of its run but expect that to change or for the L to weaken as it turns NE.

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12 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

Thanks for the trend images.

I would love to see 3-5 around here but, based on recent trends, I expect the models to start moving the system too far N or dry slot us. I do like where the NAM is placing the L in SW OK at the end of its run but expect that to change or for the L to weaken as it turns NE.

The NAM is significantly colder than the GFS. Not sure what to think of that, but the 18Z nam was 11 degrees colder than the 18z GFS, at 84 hours. I don't put much stock into the Nam, especially at 84 hours but that may be something to watch.

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