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September 2017 Discussion

391 posts in this topic

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Guess we will just wait and see. I dont see it being a wash by Sept 20th, we would have to run a nearly +9F temp departure over the next 8 days for that to happen. Either way, during the beginning of the leaf-changing season, abundant sunshine is all I am worried about so we maximize beauty in October when the crisp air is supposed to be here.

20-22nd, by that point it will be a wash if we are in the 80s next week. The departure is -6.6, that isn't insurmountable when we are projecting highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s. Let's say we end up with a week of that next starting late this week. By that point the daily average will be 74/54. You get a week plus of 82/62 that is +8 every day and the averages only go down from this point. Either way I wouldn't be rooting on a cool September, the 4 of the last 5 that ended in the 59 to 63.5 range going back to 1999 ended up being garbage for snow and the 5th was average. We have seen what years do when we are warm in Sept and early October, think 2007 or 2010

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In Houghton for the night on my circle Huron and Superior vacation, I had to check the obs it was 78 up here but it felt a bit humid. Dew points in the mid 50s, felt muggier than that to be honest. Nice view though across the channel to Hancock.20170912_192612.thumb.jpg.c48ca9d73a06e02e37308734ab7f9c8b.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

20-22nd, by that point it will be a wash if we are in the 80s next week. The departure is -6.6, that isn't insurmountable when we are projecting highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s. Let's say we end up with a week of that next starting late this week. By that point the daily average will be 74/54. You get a week plus of 82/62 that is +8 every day and the averages only go down from this point. Either way I wouldn't be rooting on a cool September, the 4 of the last 5 that ended in the 59 to 63.5 range going back to 1999 ended up being garbage for snow and the 5th was average. We have seen what years do when we are warm in Sept and early October, think 2007 or 2010

Im not rooting on a cool september, just saying I didnt see it washing by then. September is one of the more boring months. I LOVE Fall, but full fledged Fall in Sept would take some of the fun out of October. While I place little emphasis on the month of Sept and the following winter, the coldest Sept on record (1918) was one of the mildest, least snowy winters on record, so trust me I know lol.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

In Houghton for the night on my circle Huron and Superior vacation, I had to check the obs it was 78 up here but it felt a bit humid. Dew points in the mid 50s, felt muggier than that to be honest. Nice view though across the channel to Hancock.20170912_192612.thumb.jpg.c48ca9d73a06e02e37308734ab7f9c8b.jpg

I can see the color starting, but im surprised it isnt more given the color showing up down here. Really want to check out Houghton some time.

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I can see the color starting, but im surprised it isnt more given the color showing up down here. Really want to check out Houghton some time.

Yeah I have a bunch more pictures to post on Facebook which I will do when I get home and can spend some time on it. Color is spectacular in the Porcupine Mountains.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

20-22nd, by that point it will be a wash if we are in the 80s next week. The departure is -6.6, that isn't insurmountable when we are projecting highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s. Let's say we end up with a week of that next starting late this week. By that point the daily average will be 74/54. You get a week plus of 82/62 that is +8 every day and the averages only go down from this point. Either way I wouldn't be rooting on a cool September, the 4 of the last 5 that ended in the 59 to 63.5 range going back to 1999 ended up being garbage for snow and the 5th was average. We have seen what years do when we are warm in Sept and early October, think 2007 or 2010

Good info on the correlation between September temps and the winter following it. I'll take warmth till mid November then let the bottom drop out please. Enjoy your trip Stebo, great time of year to be up there I bet with the bugs being pretty much gone.

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Wondering how warm it gets this weekend. With the lack of rain lately (and the grass really shows it) I could see temps overachieving a bit.  Maybe upper 80s around here.  Setup looks a little marginal for warmer temps so I'd assign maybe a 20% chance of 90 at this point.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

:lmao:

 

Seriously though, it was a great summer here. Steadily warm with almost no heat.

 

Yeah this summer was about as good as it gets IMO.  Plenty of beach days to be had if that's your thing.

I can't wait for some more normal temps and some dew points in the air. My wardrobe and I were not ready for almost 7 days in a row of 60's

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wondering how warm it gets this weekend. With the lack of rain lately (and the grass really shows it) I could see temps overachieving a bit.  Maybe upper 80s around here.  Setup looks a little marginal for warmer temps so I'd assign maybe a 20% chance of 90 at this point.

It is definitely overachieving here, with highs in the upper 70s today.

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2 hours ago, slow poke said:

Good info on the correlation between September temps and the winter following it. I'll take warmth till mid November then let the bottom drop out please. Enjoy your trip Stebo, great time of year to be up there I bet with the bugs being pretty much gone.

Thanks and yeah I like a nice long fall as well. I don't know how this plays out beyond this month though.

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This was really my first look deeper into the extended, and I'm fairly impressed by the overall warm signal for the next couple weeks (ensembles also strongly supportive). Besides what should be fairly consistent above average temps, I see some opportunities for warm spikes that could possibly even approach daily records in some areas (perhaps most favored in western areas).  The drier than average stretch in many areas should only serve to maximize warming. 

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15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I can see the color starting, but im surprised it isnt more given the color showing up down here. Really want to check out Houghton some time.

Hey everybody!  Been super busy.  This time of year, always am.  Fall chores seem to pile up after a summer of procrastination, playing around outside, and drinking entirely too much beer.  :P

What a fantastic stretch of weather the past several days, and I'll agree with Stebo, it felt humid yesterday with a high of 77 at my house.  Was down in big bay on the shore and it felt much nicer, however.  Should reach 80 today and maybe again tomorrow.  Where was this all Summer??

Down in Negaunee early this morning and took these pics.  Josh, I think the Autumn leaves are much further along around here than the Keweenaw.  They haven't even had a frost adv, and I've seen 3 frosts and 2 freezes, which I think has spurred the color change here. At any rate, will enjoy the warm weather as long as possible because in the UP, winter is always coming!

913175.thumb.jpg.a8d1fa46c510c80cd827b3390c2cf37c.jpg

913177.thumb.jpg.e265b32af45e2b8777ff092f74e5a09f.jpg

 

 

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It should make 80 today across most of the UP. Passing through Ishpeming right now and it is already 74. Can't buy better weather for the UP this time of the year.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

It should make 80 today across most of the UP. Passing through Ishpeming right now and it is already 74. Can't buy better weather for the UP this time of the year.

If you have time in negaunee, stop by midtown bakery and cafe and eat lunch. Tell them Bo sent ya and to put your lunch on my account! You'll love it! 

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GFS/Euro (at least the 00z Euro) had 2m temps in the low-mid 90s as far east as eastern IA/western IL on Friday and Saturday.  


I don't buy any max temps on warmer days that the ECMWF shows after the terrible performance on 2M temps since spring.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


I don't buy any max temps on warmer days that the ECMWF shows after the terrible performance on 2M temps since spring.

Well, if we turn to MOS, the 12z MEX has 88 and 89 at MLI on Fri/Sat.  

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3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Hey everybody!  Been super busy.  This time of year, always am.  Fall chores seem to pile up after a summer of procrastination, playing around outside, and drinking entirely too much beer.  :P

What a fantastic stretch of weather the past several days, and I'll agree with Stebo, it felt humid yesterday with a high of 77 at my house.  Was down in big bay on the shore and it felt much nicer, however.  Should reach 80 today and maybe again tomorrow.  Where was this all Summer??

Down in Negaunee early this morning and took these pics.  Josh, I think the Autumn leaves are much further along around here than the Keweenaw.  They haven't even had a frost adv, and I've seen 3 frosts and 2 freezes, which I think has spurred the color change here. At any rate, will enjoy the warm weather as long as possible because in the UP, winter is always coming!

913175.thumb.jpg.a8d1fa46c510c80cd827b3390c2cf37c.jpg

913177.thumb.jpg.e265b32af45e2b8777ff092f74e5a09f.jpg

 

 

Beautiful!

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

If you have time in negaunee, stop by midtown bakery and cafe and eat lunch. Tell them Bo sent ya and to put your lunch on my account! You'll love it! 

Yes do stop in! Everything is made from scratch and delicious!

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I found some interesting stats about 80 degree streaks at ORD beginning on/after September 15.  I can post more at a later time but basically, a 3 or 4 day streak is not all that uncommon.  If it gets out to 6+ days, that would be a lot more unusual.  There may be a shot at that during this upcoming stretch, but it will have to survive whatever cooldown occurs around Sun-Mon.

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I'll just take a wind shift for excitement plz.   Relentless cool east winds.

I'll take a first week of Oct, 2007.  had a nice stretch of 80's i bet. 

:snowwindow:

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In Sault St. Marie it is 80 here perfect weather. Hard to believe when I first looked at this range it was highs barely making it to 55. Goes to show you once again that long range cold shots on models this time of year are complete bunk.

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Different look on the ECMWF with Jose trying to back westward into the east coast. Still a warmer than average pattern overall but not as warm as the GFS.

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1 hour ago, UMB WX said:

I wish i could  debunk  the 6 days in a row of 60's

It was originally showing 50s for like 5 days down state, with snow mixed with rain north of Superior. Nice try though.

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4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

If you have time in negaunee, stop by midtown bakery and cafe and eat lunch. Tell them Bo sent ya and to put your lunch on my account! You'll love it! 

I wish I had seen this, I would have stopped there instead of in Marquette at Hudson's. I mean the food I had was good, but a bit pricey.

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Stopped by the Tower of History in Sault St Marie, great view of the river and the locks, would recommend. 20170913_152251.thumb.jpg.2b4535a686eb8085dfab13979f470676.jpg20170913_152248.thumb.jpg.3072637b44a1f5e3199df505b046acfd.jpg

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On 9/12/2017 at 10:47 AM, UMB WX said:

 

 

Why are you bringing your saltiness and trolling from that forum to here?

Salty Links of me,  and post that everything revolves around MBY, please.   

Heed your own advice and take a break if you'd like to continue trolling your agenda here in to winter.

 

Easy call, Spot on, Hot summer, my Micro-climate.

 

Take a break.  The heat is on - you must be exhausted from the hot summer. Better luck next summer.

 

ranks1.gif

Lol thanks for proving my point. Half the nation had above average to record-breaking warmth this summer. Also, these are just max temps, you should probably look at mean temps too but keep moving the goalposts. Along with that, the cool August is what brought the departures down. June and July were complete blowtorches for nearly the entire CONUS. 

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32 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It was originally showing 50s for like 5 days down state, with snow mixed with rain north of Superior. Nice try though.

and we already discussed that was happening.. nice try though.

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