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September 2017 Discussion

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Looks like Harvey's remnants will be moving into the Ohio Valley with a heavy rain threat in parts of the area, and perhaps isolated severe.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like Harvey's remnants will be moving into the Ohio Valley with a heavy rain threat in parts of the area, and perhaps isolated severe.

12z Euro brings Harvey northeast up to about Cincy before heading eastward.

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Maybe an early leaf change this year.

I got down to 42F with a warmer airmass a few days ago, frost isn't out of the question.

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2 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And brings a nasty 15 degree below normal shot of air down by mid week next week..or colder!

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that...

I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore.

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1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that...

I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore.

They never learn, it is the same thing every fall, every cold snap early in the season is crop killing summer ending.

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3 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that...

I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore.

216 hours out isn't that far fetched. 10 years ago, sure... but in 2017, not so much.

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

216 hours out isn't that far fetched. 10 years ago, sure... but in 2017, not so much.

This summer would have been the coldest on record if the ECMWF had been right the entire time. It isn't just the Euro either the GFS and CMC both have severe cold biases in the medium and long range ,which doesn't really make sense in a warming climate.

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47 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

warminista's never fail either to disappoint on the first page of every new month.

Are you still traumatized after seeing 70 degree temps in February? Also, was there anything I said that was false? Have the models been overdoing cold shots?

ice******* are the ones who deny AGW, so...

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6 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Are you still traumatized after seeing 70 degree temps in February? Also, was there anything I said that was false? Have the models been overdoing cold shots?

ice******* are the ones who deny AGW, so...

Seems your stay here will thankfully be short.    Toodles

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1 hour ago, UMB WX said:

Seems your stay here will thankfully be short.    Toodles

It's most likely Cromartie.

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best time for warmth - I'll take a +3 fall.  Spring was a total bust and  Summer has been taco bell mild sauce weak so bring on some - fading daylight fall warmth

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The next two weeks are going to put September's departure into quite a hole to climb out of.

I'm thinking we will be sitting near -3F to -5F by September 15th.

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Jonger...you could be right. All of the global models seemed to be determined to bring down some anomalous cold for later next week. They have been consistent with this for some time. We will see if the doubters are right...or the models....:D

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

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I'm absolutely loving this weather. It's sunny and 75F where I am... virtually no humidity.

I'm in Lansing right now.

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46 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Jonger...you could be right. All of the global models seemed to be determined to bring down some anomalous cold for later next week. They have been consistent with this for some time. We will see if the doubters are right...or the models....:D

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

There is a cool snap coming but -15 to -20 is probably not happening. Every fall this happens with the first cold snap, the models assume that it is already into fall and drop the bottom out. By the time this period is realized it will be -5 to -8 departures.

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41 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There is a cool snap coming but -15 to -20 is probably not happening. Every fall this happens with the first cold snap, the models assume that it is already into fall and drop the bottom out. By the time this period is realized it will be -5 to -8 departures.

The EURO has been smoking pretty good **** lately. It's been busting so hard this entire season, ride the GFS. 

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We had double digit negative departures on the cold snap this week alone. Lansing had a -11 and -12 departure back to back.

Metro airport always leans warm in the heat island.... the -5 to -8 is probably more likely there.

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2 hours ago, rainsucks said:

The EURO has been smoking pretty good **** lately. It's been busting so hard this entire season, ride the GFS. 

We are looking at the GFS. Your palm trees are going to freeze soon.

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

We had double digit negative departures on the cold snap this week alone. Lansing had a -11 and -12 departure back to back.

Metro airport always leans warm in the heat island.... the -5 to -8 is probably more likely there.

Just like the GFS/Euro saying that Harvey would go straight into Texas at day 9-10. You have to realize things change in models through time, I mean are you honestly thinking we will be in the low 50s for highs late next week? That is what these models are trying to show.

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I think to be in the Low 50's here late next week would be way more impressive than the 94 we had last yr on Sept 6th.   Its Not Happening.  Struggling for the Low 60's I could buy. 

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Record low maxes for Milwaukee are in the low 50s, and in the upper 50s/low 60s in Detroit on the days in question.  So pretty unlikely, and who would call for it over a week out anyhow.

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On 8/28/2017 at 11:01 PM, rainsucks said:

This summer would have been the coldest on record if the ECMWF had been right the entire time. 

:huh: Not even close lol. I can remember several hot days the euro showed here that never materialized. 

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