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April 1-3 Severe Threat


1900hurricane

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Can we please stop pretending that the environment tomorrow over southeast Texas wont be that impressive? Because it will. A simple look at most of the models would reveal this. 

I don't think anyone is downplaying the threat. But seeing the same soundings posted isn't much for discussion or analysis ;)

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1 hour ago, JasonOH said:

It's contaminated, so It won't be that crazy.

That actually is not a contaminated sounding. You'd expect saturation up the column. There's actually a pretty classic dry punch there in the mid levels. Also a simple glance at the 18z NAM shows no significant precip north of Houston at 18z. The parameter space is pretty crazy, looking at the NAM and some HiRes models verbatim. However, crazy parameter space does not always mean violent tornado outbreak. I am definitely concerned about tomorrow's ceiling, but there are still quite a few fly's in the ointment. Models do not agree on storm modes yet, and we could see a problem with cloud cover and simply too much convection. Also some disagreements on the wind profiles between the models with the VBV vertical profile which would lead to messy storm modes and keep the long track tornado threat tempered. I think the setup has a high risk ceiling, but I'm not sure it will warrant a high risk yet simply because there are still too many question marks.

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6 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

To piggyback off BJC, if the dew point line and temperature line are at the same point, you cannot trust the hodograph on a model. For the CAMs, they are literally modeling the storm and the soundings do not represent the environment around the storm.

Agreed, but even soundings pulled from locations away from closest storms are impressive, per HRRR.

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8 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

To piggyback off BJC, if the dew point line and temperature line are at the same point, you cannot trust the hodograph on a model. For the CAMs, they are literally modeling the storm and the soundings do not represent the environment around the storm.

Not completely right... you need saturation all the way up. In a moist environment, you will always have a close T/Td near the surface at some point.

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I still maintain that if the temp and dews are the same on the modeled sounding it cannot be trusted.  With that thick of a layer I don't fully trust the high SRH, but I do think it is still quite high and will pose a major threat tomorrow.  

Edit: that HRRR sounding is really nice though. It has that sight layer but that's going to be as close to the environment as I think we will find.

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Just now, JasonOH said:

I still maintain that if the temp and dews are the same on the modeled sounding it cannot be trusted.  With that thick of a layer I don't fully trust the high SRH, but I do think it is still quite high and will pose a major threat tomorrow.  

With all do respect, you can maintain that all you want, but it is not correct.

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Just now, Msalgado said:

There's SRH values of over 300 for virtually all of East Texas.  There's no need to cherry pick a sounding as every one in that area will look great.

Exactly... Environment over a large area is forecasted to be highly volatile... low-level winds will be very impressive tomorrow area-wide.  

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2 minutes ago, ZackH said:

With all do respect, you can maintain that all you want, but it is not correct.

I'll take your word on it though.  From my understanding the CAM is modeling the cloud/storms at that location, so it is literally modeling the cloud, so it won't be the same as environment.  There's also a reason you have the red name and I don't, so I have trust you are right. (I was on mobile for first post and forgot you were a met since mobile doesn't show the name)

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8 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

I'll take your word on it though.  From my understanding the CAM is modeling the cloud/storms at that location, so it is literally modeling the cloud, so it won't be the same as environment.  There's also a reason you have the red name and I don't, so I have trust you are right. (I was on mobile for first post and forgot you were a met since mobile doesn't show the name)

I'm not trying to shut you down here, and I was honestly not trying to disrespect you. There is definitely more risk with the CAMs... but the first sounding I was referring to was the NAM at a time and a point where there was no modeled precipitation.

With any CAMs in a moist atmosphere, even if the storm is close by your sounding point, you will have a little modification simply due to the fact that its a convection resolving model. However, if that point was actually where a storm was being resolved, it would be saturated all the way up the column. I would be more concerned if it was just cherry picking, but the parameter space on the CAMs and soundings just like that are basically all over the warm sector and the warm front... therefore I doubt you have much contamination. Of course, that's if the model is correct... the nice caveat :)

EDIT: on a second glance, the first HRRR sounding may have some contamination, but the second HRRR sounding and the NAM sounding look good.

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8 minutes ago, CGChaser said:

FWIW, this is a solid post addressing contaminated soundings, etc..

 

One thing with Pivotal is that you don't have those lines on the side (I'm having a memory blank will probably remember right when I press post). Not sure about COD.

 

And I was wrong, that's not called getting shut down. It's called learning and it's always good to get smarter.  And excellent post Zach, thank you!

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6 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

One thing with Pivotal is that you don't have those lines on the side (I'm having a memory blank will probably remember right when I press post). Not sure about COD.

 

And I was wrong, that's not called getting shut down. It's called learning and it's always good to get smarter.  And excellent post Zach, thank you!

I still learn every day, sir! Thanks for understanding my post.

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48 minutes ago, ZackH said:

Not completely right... you need saturation all the way up. In a moist environment, you will always have a close T/Td near the surface at some point.

This isn't completely right either. You actually don't have to see saturation thru the column. 

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47 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Exactly... Environment over a large area is forecasted to be highly volatile... low-level winds will be very impressive tomorrow area-wide.  

storm mode and raging MCS have me tempering my expectations.

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