colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Feeling like 4-6" is the right call for down here, and even that feels a little high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Whats the qpf, all these different snowfall maps with different algorithms are driving me nuts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Whats the qpf, all these different snowfall maps with different algorithms are driving me nuts lol Was thinking the same.....fun to look at 5 days out, but at some point have to start nailing things down That Euro map is a straight 15:1, so take about 2/3 of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, colonel717 said: 10:1 is gonna be tough to achieve, much less 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, snowsux said: 10:1 is gonna be tough to achieve, much less 15:1. No doubt for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, snowsux said: 10:1 is gonna be tough to achieve, much less 15:1. I agree, 10:1 is probably the right way to go. I'm thinking our maximum upside now would be a 6-8 area wide, and I'd take that. Can't believe Eastern PA and NJ up into NE, might be an all timer for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: Was thinking the same.....fun to look at 5 days out, but at some point have to start nailing things down I found this that goes out 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Looks looks more realistic. 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree, 10:1 is probably the right way to go. I'm thinking our maximum upside now would be a 6-8 area wide, and I'd take that. Can't believe Eastern PA and NJ up into NE, might be an all timer for those areas. Trout how can you put a max on this type of storm. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Lol at that green section. Pretty fitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: Looks looks more realistic. 4-6 Trends just started back west at 6z were at start of the trend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree, 10:1 is probably the right way to go. I'm thinking our maximum upside now would be a 6-8 area wide, and I'd take that. Can't believe Eastern PA and NJ up into NE, might be an all timer for those areas. They seem to have 1 every year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That SW PA screw zone is about as real as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, southpark said: I found this that goes out 72 hours Awesome! Thanks. Looks like .4-.5 for most of us, if we can just get rid of that middle finger through SE AGH and into Westmoreland and Armstrong we might be good lol Trends have been positive at 12z for sure, if we keep seeing minor improvements up until the start we could end up beefing the upside. I wonder if NWS will expand Winter Storm Watches after digesting 12z data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, colonel717 said: Looks looks more realistic. 4-6 Yeah I am thinking the same. These setups are never too good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, southpark said: I found this that goes out 72 hours I can't get enough of this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stinkbugspecialist said: Trout how can you put a max on this type of storm. ? I mean I could be wrong, I just think given we are only 36-48 hours out now you aren't going to see any big changes. 12Z today was really the last opportunity for that in my mind, and I think we did see some very positive trends. From here on I would only expect to see minor changes one way or another. Given this storm is such a beast though I guess its still possible we see another big shift, if so I hope its in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Burghblizz said: I can't get enough of this.... Lol, the middle finger, or maybe its genitalia about to urinate all over SWPAs snow hopes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 I hope it shifts just far enough west to give all the big cities rain. I literally can't stand the people that post in their forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Awesome! Thanks. Looks like .4-.5 for most of us, if we can just get rid of that middle finger through SE AGH and into Westmoreland and Armstrong we might be good lol Trends have been positive at 12z for sure, if we keep seeing minor improvements up until the start we could end up beefing the upside. I wonder if NWS will expand Winter Storm Watches after digesting 12z data? We will probably get an advisory and not a watch is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I hope it shifts just far enough west to give all the big cities rain. I literally can't stand the people that post in their forums. Yeah.. there's going to be some big time disappointments somewhere. At least we don't have to worry about that here. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I hope it shifts just far enough west to give all the big cities rain. I literally can't stand the people that post in their forums. You and me too. I have stayed far away from those forums. We need a track west like UK but keep inland at least until over Philly and that should suffice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I mean I could be wrong, I just think given we are only 36-48 hours out now you aren't going to see any big changes. 12Z today was really the last opportunity for that in my mind, and I think we did see some very positive trends. From here on I would only expect to see minor changes one way or another. Given this storm is such a beast though I guess its still possible we see another big shift, if so I hope its in our favor. I always remember Jan of 1996 where we had the big shift. Of course there were no models back then for us to look at or boards to post on but I remember going from 1-3 to 2-4 to 6-12 over a 48 hour period. Of course I lived in Westmoreland County which helped me get to 20 or so. I believe Greater Pitt was closer to 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, southpark said: Yeah I am thinking the same. These setups are never too good for us. NOAA said this said this setup mimics the 93 superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: You and me too. I have stayed far away from those forums. We need a track west like UK but keep inland over Philly and that should suffice.. There are a few posters over at accuweather forums that would have a meltdown if Philly was rain or a mix. I think you know who I am talking about since I see you over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This map shows how noneventful this storm will be for us. Laughable...Snow showers and light winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I hope it shifts just far enough west to give all the big cities rain. I literally can't stand the people that post in their forums. Neither can I, but I say let em' get what they're wishing for. 4-6" (or thereabouts) ain't too shabby a storm for us. A snowstorm is a snowstorm. Would you really want 30 inches with all the trouble that entails? You also know damn well that flooding is gonna wind up being an issue (and possibly a major one) where this thing dumps the most. No thanx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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