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downeastnc

2017 General Severe Weather thread

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Looks like the severe season will be getting off to a early start.....will probably need a dedicated thread for the Wed Mar 1st  threat. This thread will be for discussing threats in the 2-7 day range or the random severe storms, using dedicated threads for days that are forecast to be "busier" seems to work well and help for archiving etc.

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Should be active in extreme western GA, NC, and SC and west from there.  In our neck of the woods, as usual, there will be a mitigating factor, bad diurnal timing in this case.

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8 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Should be active in extreme western GA, NC, and SC and west from there.  In our neck of the woods, as usual, there will be a mitigating factor, bad diurnal timing in this case.

Yeah that always seems to be the case I cant remember the last time we had a squall line come through in the early afternoon, they are always later at night it seems...the Nam3K keeps flipping back and forth on intensity with the system this far east....

 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Storms look to be rough around 7 pm , according to future radar! 

That might even be a bit late the models seem to be a bit behind with the timing especially on the southern end of the line its already almost to Nashville and racing east....

NAM 3K for your neck of the woods...

 

nam3 1.png

 

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

That might even be a bit late the models seem to be a bit behind with the timing especially on the southern end of the line its already almost to Nashville and racing east....

NAM 3K for your neck of the woods...

 

nam3 1.png

 

That sure is a strong line , as modeled, coming through at peak heating, especially if it's a few hours ahead of schedule! Local mets were saying that the line was going to break up over the mountains !?

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Paranormal Nam keeps the line together through the Triangle, actually.  Kind of surprised to see that.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_17.png

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DP's in the low to mid 60's in central and eastern NC will be enough to support the storms, how severe is still a pretty big question mark....the timing is still a issue for RDU and east, lower DP are the issue in the foothills/piedmont. Parameters in eastern NC are actually pretty robust for Feb......looking at the SPC parameter page its a good thing there are no storms firing over eastern NC or SE VA right now......

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Cool , I'm in the enhanced and 30% area!

70% chance you'll be ok!

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
1210 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
  NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
  
* UNTIL 1245 PM CST  
      
* AT 1210 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROGERSVILLE, OR 15 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE,  
  MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   

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HRRR is bullish one run then not so much the next...if those discrete cells it has over the upstate SC form those could be trouble.....and any bowed areas of the main line...

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Quote

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 59
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NC
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE             ALEXANDER           ANSON
AVERY                BUNCOMBE            BURKE
CABARRUS             CALDWELL            CASWELL
CATAWBA              CHATHAM             CLEVELAND
DAVIDSON             DAVIE               DURHAM
FORSYTH              GASTON              GRAHAM
GUILFORD             HAYWOOD             HENDERSON
IREDELL              JACKSON             LEE
LINCOLN              MACON               MADISON
MCDOWELL             MECKLENBURG         MITCHELL
MONTGOMERY           MOORE               ORANGE
PERSON               POLK                RANDOLPH
RICHMOND             ROCKINGHAM          ROWAN
RUTHERFORD           STANLY              STOKES
SURRY                SWAIN               TRANSYLVANIA
UNION                WILKES              YADKIN
YANCEY

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Hickory area got a decent storm headed in....a decent area of rotation developing with it.....just popped a tornado warning on it rotation sharpened up quick, rotation about to pass just south of Salem.

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Verified account @NWSGSP 1m1 minute ago

 
 

TORNADO WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5:15 PM FOR BURKE-NC CATAWBA-NC

 

* At 440 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 6 miles southwest of Morganton, or 5 miles south of
  Glen Alpine, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Drexel around 450 PM EST.
  Connelly Springs, Rutherford College, Valdese and Lake Rhodhiss
  around 500 PM EST.
  Hickory, Hildebran, Mountain View, Longview and Hickory Regional
  Airport around 510 PM EST.

 

 

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There is some very weak and broad rotation in the storm near Suwanee straddling the Forsyth/Gwinnett County line. It's nothing to report, but just a general piece.

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Cell near Forest City getting a broad rotation on it will be headed in the general direction of Charlotte more so the northern half of the metro.....

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5 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Does storm south of Walhalla look like it's getting a possible hook echo to anyone else?

Sure does to me as well. That cell looks pretty bad and heading for Greenville. 

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11 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Does storm south of Walhalla look like it's getting a possible hook echo to anyone else?

The cell near Reed Creek/Hartwell is the best looking storm in SC....of all of them it appears in the best environment and it has that "look".

Cell in NC north of Gastonia getting a decent rotation in it as well....

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mcd0250.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern North Carolina and
   northern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59...

   Valid 012321Z - 020115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Clusters and small lines of strong/severe thunderstorms
   will continue east across the region this evening, with an attendant
   threat for damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a
   tornado. Watch 59 will probably need some eastward expansion and/or
   a new downstream watch closer to coast could be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Small bowing segments/clusters of occasionally severe
   thunderstorms are advancing east across the Carolinas early this
   evening. These storms are encountering an air mass characterized by
   a relatively well-mixed boundary layer, with dew points in the
   mid/upper 50s. In turn, mixed-layer convective inhibition may cause
   less organized cells to weaken further in the near-term. However,
   considering 1-3 km southwesterly flow around 35-50 kts and
   relatively steep low-level lapse rates, any modest upscale growth
   may pose a threat for some strong/damaging gusts in the near term. A
   southward-sinking outflow boundary over northern NC may continue to
   provide a focus for downwind propagation, which would also focus a
   greater wind threat. As such, Watch 59 may need eastward expansion
   across parts of central NC and central/eastern SC.

   Later this evening, an increasing low-level jet may advect higher
   dew points (in the lower 60s) ahead of the line across the eastern
   Carolinas. A resultant uptick in MLCAPE may encourage some
   strengthening of these storms later this evening. If such an
   increasing wind threat were to materialize, new watch issuance would
   be needed downstream. Additionally, strong low-level wind fields and
   a moistening boundary layer could support the potential for a
   tornado or two.
 

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