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ChescoPaWxman

MLK Weekend Winter Event

80 posts in this topic

Little out of range but the 12K 12Z NAM showing a nice thump of snow Saturday evening/night. Looks cold enough at all levels. Feeing this might be a 2-wave wintry event attm with wave 1 Saturday being mostly snow and wave 2 Sunday being more of a mix. Very touch-and-go situation as a degree here and there as well as boundary location will make a big difference. I'm sure this will change as we get closer but those are my current thoughts.


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Cold air wants to hang in all weekend but the problem is little moisture shows up for the party. Models keep trending drier 12z GFS is <.5" snow and ice now. What do you think Ralph? 

 

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UKIE and CMC south of PA for the weekend, GFS OP is weak sauce and the majority of it's members are moister and north. Another event 72hrs from start and it could go any way possible.

 

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

UKIE and CMC south of PA for the weekend, GFS OP is weak sauce and the majority of it's members are moister and north. Another event 72hrs from start and it could go any way possible.

 

I think it all depends on the Strength of that High that sets up to our North.  

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Just now, penndotguy said:

I think it all depends on the Strength of that High that sets up to our North.  

Yes 

12z ECM is virtually nothing

 

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Cold air and moisture don't like to get together this winter, can't miss this opportunity with close to two weeks of late March like weather coming.

 

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I feel like I have already surrendered to no more snow this winter...I could really use a few inches this weekend to remind me that we are still in the heart of it.!

 

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Its weird to me that the CMC and Ukmet went South with the boundary with such a pig ridge in the Southeast ... real battle between HP in the northeast and pig ridge in the SE.

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35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its weird to me that the CMC and Ukmet went South with the boundary with such a pig ridge in the Southeast ... real battle between HP in the northeast and pig ridge in the SE.

In Mt Hollys AFD earlier they mentioned that high weakening Saturday night so ?

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Now everyone knows why a 3" storm got so much following and attention.  Probably will be our most substantial storm of the year.  Trees will probably be budding by the end of the month.

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its weird to me that the CMC and Ukmet went South with the boundary with such a pig ridge in the Southeast ... real battle between HP in the northeast and pig ridge in the SE.

May be a problem if this continues...cold enough but no moisture. Accu weather going w/coating - 2" late Sat afternoon/evening. (depending on/or not going more south)

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Now everyone knows why a 3" storm got so much following and attention.  Probably will be our most substantial storm of the year.  Trees will probably be budding by the end of the month.



This post belongs in the winter discussion thread, but I will humor you. One doesn't need to look very far to see many pieces are finally falling into place starting in about a week based on ensembles and other various teleconnection forecasts. MJO finally looks to come out of the COD and into phase 1. PNA finally spikes. NAO finally looks to take a solid dip. STJ becoming very active and energetic in the next 7-12 days. All the pieces are falling into place. Doesn't mean we will score but with this much pattern support, things are certainly looking hopeful anyway. I have a funny suspicion we are going to revisit your post at the end of February or early March and we will all have a chuckle. And trust me, you aren't the only one to have thrown in the towel....I think RedSky gave up the second week of December or so. Hang in there....this winter hasn't been a shutout and is still salvageable for a decent hit or two going forward.

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I'm somewhat confident about this weekend. Nothing huge but nickel and diming our way along. The thing that is encouraging this year, even in crappy patterns and when things were marginal/borderline, we have had wintry weather. Several minor events that were progged but somehow overproduced (last week). This morning was yet another example of how we got temps to somehow drop below freezing while all signs said screaming South winds, etc. Just something about this year. If we actually get a decent pattern I'm really eager to see what happens.



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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 


This post belongs in the winter discussion thread, but I will humor you. One doesn't need to look very far to see many pieces are finally falling into place starting in about a week based on ensembles and other various teleconnection forecasts. MJO finally looks to come out of the COD and into phase 1. PNA finally spikes. NAO finally looks to take a solid dip. STJ becoming very active and energetic in the next 7-12 days. All the pieces are falling into place. Doesn't mean we will score but with this much pattern support, things are certainly looking hopeful anyway. I have a funny suspicion we are going to revisit your post at the end of February or early March and we will all have a chuckle. And trust me, you aren't the only one to have thrown in the towel....I think RedSky gave up the second week of December or so. Hang in there....this winter hasn't been a shutout and is still salvageable for a decent hit or two going forward.
 

 

Funny Ralph now run out and play.

No my annual cancel winter date is January 15th, last cancelled in 2012. I see enough positive atmospheric signals to have confidence I won't see no shadow and cancel winter Sunday. It would be hard to finish below normal snowfall for the second half and be any worse than the first half disaster we witnessed.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm somewhat confident about this weekend. Nothing huge but nickel and diming our way along. The thing that is encouraging this year, even in crappy patterns and when things were marginal/borderline, we have had wintry weather. Several minor events that were progged but somehow overproduced (last week). This morning was yet another example of how we got temps to somehow drop below freezing while all signs said screaming South winds, etc. Just something about this year. If we actually get a decent pattern I'm really eager to see what happens.
 

 

 

 

 

Steve could not agree with you more!! Winter is still coming!!!

 

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Not sure how much the freezing rain will freeze with Temps in the mid 60s today and mid 40s tomorrow. The area won't fall below freezing until late tomorrow night, I just don't see freezing rain being a big deal with Temps hovering between 29-32. I think precip will need to be sleet or snow to have any impact here. Im with ralph in that I'm pretty confident we see a minor event this weekend and maybe someone gets a 4 or 5 inch lollipop.

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Not sure how much the freezing rain will freeze with Temps in the mid 60s today and mid 40s tomorrow. The area won't fall below freezing until late tomorrow night, I just don't see freezing rain being a big deal with Temps hovering between 29-32. I think precip will need to be sleet or snow to have any impact here. Im with ralph in that I'm pretty confident we see a minor event this weekend and maybe someone gets a 4 or 5 inch lollipop.

Completely agree. Never even showed up as an ice threat on guidance. Looks like snow, sleet, rain mix. Roads will be fine. Grassy surfaces etc might see some light accums general PHL area and nearby burbs

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57 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Completely agree. Never even showed up as an ice threat on guidance. Looks like snow, sleet, rain mix. Roads will be fine. Grassy surfaces etc might see some light accums general PHL area and nearby burbs

Fair enough, I think with temps temps out here in the mid 20's Friday night and only 30 on Saturday then back into the mid 20's Saturday night if we do have the dreaded snow/IP mix it will be a mess doesn't take much. heck by tomorrow it may miss us

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Fair enough, I think with temps temps out here in the mid 20's Friday night and only 30 on Saturday then back into the mid 20's Saturday night if we do have the dreaded snow/IP mix it will be a mess doesn't take much. heck by tomorrow it may miss us


Yes. Very different climates in these marginal situations between your area and the general PHL area and nearby burbs.

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Kind of Twilight Zone-ish....low 60s and just gorgeous outside yet local municipalities are out and about brining the roads for Saturday's light snow/sleet event. Doesnt seem right :-D

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Kind of Twilight Zone-ish....low 60s and just gorgeous outside yet local municipalities are out and about brining the roads for Saturday's light snow/sleet event. Doesnt seem right :-D

 

It doesn't take long for the state to get roads brined. No brining here in North Coventry or Douglassville, yet...

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Just washed/sprayed the white/salt/brine on the outside of the car...vacuumed the inside w/the mild temps as well. Weekend thing is a non-event (or very minor)...watching football, that's about it.

63.3F

 

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Euro is a non-event. We need a rule...no starting specific storm threads until 72 hour lead time or less. :-D No matter what subforum, it is almost always the kiss of death for that respective subforum.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro is a non-event. We need a rule...no starting specific storm threads until 72 hour lead time or less. :-D No matter what subforum, it is almost always the kiss of death for that respective subforum.

 

Except the blizzard. For that one it worked out.

 

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