January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

I'll buy this and roll with it. 

[Bob Chill]

^ perfect example of why -pna's aren't always bad. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

^ perfect example of why -pna's aren't always bad. 

Yep. A positive Pna with those other factors would just be a cold dry look. Nothing is universal it's how all these moving parts play off each other.   That's why I laugh when someone posts a single teleconnections chart like they unlocked the code. Wish it was that simple!

[Bob Chill]

I'd run with the d10 euro surface plots...all the makings of a significant overrunning event covering a lot of real estate. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

Glad you mentioned that ice thing. There are members in there that have 8"+ of actual snow. Some with a lot more than that. Fewer GL screw jobs as well. Can't wait to see if EPS follows suit with a higher mean. Feeling good for that Jan. 5th-Jan. 10th window.

 

It's a good look. I'm hesitant to say too much because it obviously could fall apart, real threat or not, and then things will get insufferable in here with "it's never gonna snow again" posts from the usual suspects. And then the next threat all we will hear is "but look what happened last time" instead of analysis. But if a 1 is what we were looking at a week ago and a 10 is the pattern a week before feb 2010 or last January this is a solid 7-8 IMO. Our odds of seeing some snow are pretty good. About as good as we can ask 10 days out anyways. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd run with the d10 euro surface plots...all the makings of a significant overrunning event covering a lot of real estate. 

Last nights control basically did that and ended up a nice 6-10" Overunning event west to east right across our region. 

[Bob Chill]

One key difference to the upcoming period that the mid Dec threat didn't have is multiple ways to get there. Mid Dec was always going to be a west track. When the euro threw out the big dog run the GFS was still showing a west track and hp exiting due east.  As we approached the antecedent air mass kept getting worse every single run. 

We're still out there in range but there are no signs of hp sliding due east with strong southerly return flow. We also have agreement with a block forming in a decent spot. The west track solutions have much better high placement. A ton of lead time means anything and everything can go wrong but for now it looks ok. We need to have something legit to track by this weekend or wnwxluvr is going to troll the hell out of me. lol

 

[usedtobe]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd run with the d10 euro surface plots...all the makings of a significant overrunning event covering a lot of real estate. 

That's how we need to get snow as I think eventually, another low will track to our north but probably not nearly as quickly as the 12Z GFS.  I wrote an article for CWG before seeing the Euro saying the pattern was getting better for snow but still the pattern is far from optimal.  Still,  the Euro with it's block over Greenland would be good and would belie the GFS solution.  That doesn't mean the latter is impossible as that far in timing almost all thee players will be somewhat different than shown on the models and for us the devil is usually in the details.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One key difference to the upcoming period that the mid Dec threat didn't have is multiple ways to get there. Mid Dec was always going to be a west track. When the euro threw out the big dog run the GFS was still showing a west track and hp exiting due east.  As we approached the antecedent air mass kept getting worse every single run.

We're still out there in range but there are no signs of hp sliding due east with strong southerly return flow. The west track solutions have much better high placement. A ton of lead time means anything and everything can go wrong but for now it looks ok. We need to have something legit to track by this weekend or wnwxluvr is going to troll the hell out of me. lol

 

While in a general sense it's true this is a bit of a recycling of the pattern there are significant details that are different. The nao seems to want to be more friendly this time. I think we're seeing enough evidence to suggest at the very least it's less hostile this go around. The pv is displaced in a better location with a lobe pressed into eastern Canada this time. The AK ridge looks to be a bit east of where it was last time it flexed and drove the pattern in December. Add in January climo over December and there is a lot more going for us this time.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll buy this and roll with it. 

Yeah, I think we all would take that and run if it ends up real. Just screams overrunning event! 

[BristowWx]

I have never told this to anyone but I love overrunning events.  They can surprise and go longer than expected if set up is right and the moisture feed is solid.  There's I said it

[benjammin]

I like overrunning events also because watching a wall of moisture coming is pretty cool.

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, benjammin said:

I like overrunning events also because watching a wall of moisture coming is pretty cool.

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk
 

As long as it's blue

[psuhoffman]

Eps seems to support the op general idea. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I have never told this to anyone but I love overrunning events.  They can surprise and go longer than expected if set up is right and the moisture feed is solid.  There's I said it

Yup, something like PD-II. Kind of had a setup like that in some ways. Not comparing directly here, just agreeing that we don't need a big low off the coast to get a good event. Give us that setup Psuhoffman showed from the Euro and toss in a big-ass 1040mb high in southeast Canada/northeast US, and we would be in like Flynn!

Side note, I won't comment on the potential double-entendre of your post, whether intended or not! Hahaha! 

[psuhoffman]

Control is too much of a good thing. Day 9-11 has a 6-10" snowstorm for northern Georgia and central NC. Suppressed south of Richmond even. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Control is too much of a good thing. Day 9-11 has a 6-10" snowstorm for northern Georgia and central NC. Suppressed south of Richmond even. 

Eps looks like a 50/50 split of hits and misses to the south with the cluster that has the d10-12 threat

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps looks like a 50/50 split of hits and misses to the south with the cluster that has the d10-12 threat

I would suppose that seeing misses going more to our south is better than seeing us miss with cutters, in some ways. 

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup, something like PD-II. Kind of had a setup like that in some ways. Not comparing directly here, just agreeing that we don't need a big low off the coast to get a good event. Give us that setup Psuhoffman showed from the Euro and toss in a big-ass 1040mb high in southeast Canada/northeast US, and we would be in like Flynn!

Side note, I won't comment on the potential double-entendre of your post, whether intended or not! Hahaha! 

It was intended.  It's the whiskey and my enthusuiam over the modeled pattern.  It makes one say strange things.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps looks like a 50/50 split of hits and misses to the south with the cluster that has the d10-12 threat

Yea I was waiting for the last couple days to load. But yea not much of a signal for a west track. It's a combo of snow and suppressed. Then later in the run some of the suppressed runs from earlier hold the cold long enough to have a threat later. Some warm up too fast. It's muddy that far out obviously.  In a few minutes I was going to post the splits on hits vs misses south or north.  We're in a good spot though.

[Bob Chill]

What a weenie eps run. Legit -nao in place d10-15. Cold and snowy. 

[leo1000]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

^ perfect example of why -pna's aren't always bad. 

Really?. The only reason why it's that cold is because we will have a negative NAO, negative EPO, negative WPO. The problem is I don't think a pattern like this that is coming to fruition can have staying power. Without a positive PNA. Because mother nature likes to have a ridge/trough formation. A balancing act. Very hard to keep a trough in the west as well as in the east. Which is why I think we will revert back to a trough in the west and a ridge in the east. 

[leo1000]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

What a weenie eps run. Legit -nao in place d10-15. Cold and snowy. 

Is it a strong negative -NA0 if so that would be good and get us in a sustained pattern. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, leo1000 said:

Is it a strong negative -NA0 if so that would be good and get us in a sustained pattern. 

He can't answer that.  No one can.  It could go poof next model cycle.  -NAOs are part of a larger blocking pattern like a traffic jam in the atmosphere.  No telling when the break will occur.  The AK ridge look like a derailed train however.  That will take time to clear.

[Bob Chill]

Leo, +pna/-nao can be cold and dry as a bone here. We've had PLENTY of good events with a -pna. I practice looking at the h5 pattern as a whole and forget about numerical indices. They often don't represent the ground truth. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What a weenie eps run. Legit -nao in place d10-15. Cold and snowy. 

It really is. Please let it be a "real" legit -NAO and not yet another unicorn lol. 

Also per your post on the day 10 threat- I am quite content with what the eps members are showing at this lead time. I like seeing misses to the south. Good sign that this upcoming pattern will indeed offer up something different. We need different.

[packbacker]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Leo, +pna/-nao can be cold and dry as a bone here. We've had PLENTY of good events with a -pna. I practice looking at the h5 pattern as a whole and forget about numerical indices. They often don't represent the ground truth. 

This -PNA setup may may be a good thing (cringing while I type that) with a NAO block...active at least.  The low heights in the Atlantic is so pretty. 

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

Is it a strong negative -NA0 if so that would be good and get us in a sustained pattern. 

Do you live in Nova scotia? If so, looking for insight in our forum is probably not a good idea. Your climo isn't even close to ours. We definitely don't look for the same things. A -nao is probably bad for your yard more often than not. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This -PNA setup may may be a good thing (cringing while I type that) with a NAO block...active at least.  The low heights in the Atlantic is so pretty. 

I'm rooting for a se/ma special. Big overrunning event followed by a coastal that goes out to sea off the delmarva. Like pd2 but colder and snowier and stuff. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What a weenie eps run. Legit -nao in place d10-15. Cold and snowy. 

Definitely concur. Mean is 2.5-4" south to north across our area. Significant bump up. The biggest spike comes day 9-12 with the Overunning threat. There is another bump day 14-15 as a few members get us with the next wave. 

I count 25 members that manage to get us a "significant" event. 2"+ across the majority of the area. And many of those are flush hits 6"+. Of the half or so that miss the majority is because the storm in the 9-12 period is suppressed. Only a small cluster with a nw track.