Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

Recommended Posts

Getting very close to the NSIDC annual minimum extent. Most recent update was at 4.601 million sq km. A minimum in the 4 to 5 million sq km range has been typical for the new post 2007 Arctic. 

4 to 5 million sq km minimums 

2018

2017

2016

2015

2011

2010

2008

2007

Below 4 million sq km

2012

Slightly above 5 million sq km

2014

2013

2009

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bluewave, I think you are referencing the 5 day average....the daily on NSIDC did get as low as 4.55 million sq km.

I'm actually not 100% sure what NSIDC uses...I think they might actually use the 5 day average as the min if I recall correctly, so your number might be more "official".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bluewave, I think you are referencing the 5 day average....the daily on NSIDC did get as low as 4.55 million sq km.

I'm actually not 100% sure what NSIDC uses...I think they might actually use the 5 day average as the min if I recall correctly, so your number might be more "official".

They will probably issue the official annual minimum extent in the next few days. I used the latest daily reading from the chart below.

 

IMG_0244.thumb.PNG.4658a70750d2d03d01f8c568156f7c00.PNG

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, bluewave said:

They will probably issue the official annual minimum extent in the next few days. I used the latest daily reading from the chart below.

 

IMG_0244.thumb.PNG.4658a70750d2d03d01f8c568156f7c00.PNG

 

Yeah the interactive graph uses the 5 day mean....it's updated daily, so its a daily reading, but the data is a 5 day average. The single day reading is actually 4.56 million sq km today. Like I said before, I can't remember if they use that or the 1 day reading as the min...but looking back at past mins, I think they use the 5-day reading that's on the graph. I seem to remember them explaining that the single day jumps can be a bit volatile and produce faux numbers on the margins, so they prefer to smooth it out. JAXA actually does this too but they do it over a 2 day average. We'll know soon enough. Not that there is a big difference...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the interactive graph uses the 5 day mean....it's updated daily, so its a daily reading, but the data is a 5 day average. The single day reading is actually 4.56 million sq km today. Like I said before, I can't remember if they use that or the 1 day reading as the min...but looking back at past mins, I think they use the 5-day reading that's on the graph. I seem to remember them explaining that the single day jumps can be a bit volatile and produce faux numbers on the margins, so they prefer to smooth it out. JAXA actually does this too but they do it over a 2 day average. We'll know soon enough. Not that there is a big difference...

This would probably have been a minimum closer to 7 million sq km in a pre 2007 Arctic world. Zack Labe posted a great chart on how low the pressures were over the Arctic the last two summers. Lowest pressures since the 1990's. But extents well below those levels.

Another summer of predominately cyclonic (low pressure) conditions over the#Arctic polar cap (>65°N) --> cloudy and "cool" pic.twitter.com/7LySJd5pqN
 
DnbYcmtU0AItYY7.jpg-small.jpg.757efda5e690bf8e7eaaff1527fcda72.jpg
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This would probably have been a minimum closer to 7 million sq km in a pre 2007 Arctic world. Zack Labe posted a great chart on how low the pressures were over the Arctic the last two summers. Lowest pressures since the 1990's. But extents well below those levels.

Another summer of predominately cyclonic (low pressure) conditions over the#Arctic polar cap (>65°N) --> cloudy and "cool" pic.twitter.com/7LySJd5pqN
 
DnbYcmtU0AItYY7.jpg-small.jpg.757efda5e690bf8e7eaaff1527fcda72.jpg

I remember someone had written an overview of the 2013 Arctic melt season and I can't find it now...but either way it showed how much the loss of multiyear ice had changed the Arctic. The 2013 summer was the coldest in the Arctic basin since 1996...but yet we still had a min around 5 million sq km, which was lower than any min pre-2007...despite some really warm years like 2005 or 2002. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember someone had written an overview of the 2013 Arctic melt season and I can't find it now...but either way it showed how much the loss of multiyear ice had changed the Arctic. The 2013 summer was the coldest in the Arctic basin since 1996...but yet we still had a min around 5 million sq km, which was lower than any min pre-2007...despite some really warm years like 2005 or 2002. 

Yeah, the 2017 Arctic Report Card showed how the loss of multiyear ice created a new normal over the last decade.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if this has been discussed so excuse any redundancy -

I've accepted the notion smoldering underneath all this monitoring that the perennial ice is on a course toward extinction ... whether that reality is observed next year or decades away, notwithstanding. 

What I'm interested in is the "rate" of recovery over the seasonal transition.  Those modalities are perhaps more telling about the drivers and forces effecting a system than the scalar statuses.   

Many of these more impressive cold wave winters (that may or may not have had concomitant snow storm efficiency) were led off by fantastic recovery rates with sea ice expansion, as well, with land-based cryospheric metrics, during the preceding autumns.   

I think it is also less systemically observable over antiquity because passed decades did not have as much exposed naked sea-surface, having ice more enduring during warm months ...such that said rates more likely merely went unnoticed.  

So, it's supposition...but, I suggest a rapidity in areal ice recovery ... along with land-based numbers, can be telling signs for an ensuing winter's arctic contribution to modulating middle latitudes around the Hemisphere - notice I said 'Hemisphere' and not 'local-yoke's  backyard'... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the latest Arctic sea ice minimum extents on record. As of 9-23, the NSIDC extent is still holding at 4.594 million sq km. Record warm SST's for this time of year over the Chukchi Sea.

IMG_0246.thumb.PNG.990e2023922a93bef4897a76f65e8cef.PNG

sstanom0.png.205652a5ce809da59ac359ed238067dd.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The models show what is probably unprecedented for this time of year.

The refreeze will completely stop. 

 

Well it really hasnt even begun outside the CAA.

 

But it will flatline easily for 10-14 days. 

 

I mean like zero growth. 

 

 

 

satanom.arc.d-01.png

ECMOPNH00_168_34.png

ECMOPNH00_144_34.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That EC run last night -- oof. +4SD ridge. Even the EPS is +3SD at a week out with widespread +10-15C anomalies across almost the entire basin. The FV3-GFS is much the same. OP deterministics are of course even more extreme. This would be a pretty hefty ridge by mid summer standards, much less late Sep/early Oct.

Yet another year with an extreme autumn setup.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

That EC run last night -- oof. +4SD ridge. Even the EPS is +3SD at a week out with widespread +10-15C anomalies across almost the entire basin. The FV3-GFS is much the same. OP deterministics are of course even more extreme. This would be a pretty hefty ridge by mid summer standards, much less late Sep/early Oct.

Yet another year with an extreme autumn setup.

Looks like a new positive 500 mb height record for this time of year over that region.

 

IMG_0250.thumb.PNG.92dcfde36bed7236f8dffb19ef03395f.PNG

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a new positive 500 mb height record for this time of year over that region.

 

IMG_0250.thumb.PNG.92dcfde36bed7236f8dffb19ef03395f.PNG

 

 

Chris, we've been setting records like this in different parts of the world's oceans for a few years now.  What year had our latest sea ice minimum and does it look like we could break that record this year (with a sea ice minimum as late as October for the first time ever?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, we've been setting records like this in different parts of the world's oceans for a few years now.  What year had our latest sea ice minimum and does it look like we could break that record this year (with a sea ice minimum as late as October for the first time ever?)

This delayed freeze-up continues to be very impressive. The record ridging and warmth dropped the extent to the 3rd lowest on record behind 2012 and 2007 for 9-26.

IMG_0251.thumb.PNG.41ec7ded5ced77eb7b662049d40c1d2b.PNG

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, bluewave said:

This delayed freeze-up continues to be very impressive. The record ridging and warmth dropped the extent to the 3rd lowest on record behind 2012 and 2007 for 9-26.

IMG_0251.thumb.PNG.41ec7ded5ced77eb7b662049d40c1d2b.PNG

According to that the sea ice extent has been increasingly slightly in the last few days- so the minimum likely wont be in early October?  Is this still the latest we've ever seen the minimum, Chris?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

According to that the sea ice extent has been increasingly slightly in the last few days- so the minimum likely wont be in early October?  Is this still the latest we've ever seen the minimum, Chris?

This was the latest minimum so far on record tied with 1997. But the extent was much higher that year. The CPC issued an historic forecast for the the NW Alaska region due to the record warmth there. 

https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-2018-minimum-extent

Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for the year, at 4.59 million square kilometers (1.77 million square miles) on September 19 and 23, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. The 2018 minimum ties with 2008 and 2010 as the sixth lowest in the nearly 40-year satellite record. September 23 is the latest day in the year the Arctic sea minimum has occurred in the satellite record—observed this year and in 1997.

https://www.arctictoday.com/open-warm-waters-off-arctic-alaska-spark-bold-forecast-warm-october/

The lack of sea ice off Alaska and the persistence of warm temperatures in the open waters there have set up an unusual weather situation — a near-certain forecast of significantly higher-than-normal temperatures for northwestern Alaska.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts and 85 percent chance that northwestern Alaska will have temperatures significantly warmer than normal in October.

That is the “first time in recorded history” that the Climate Prediction Center has issued a probability above 80 percent, said Rick Thoman, climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service in Alaska.

“That is a really bold forecast, but all the pieces are in place,” he said at his monthly Alaska climate outlook briefing, held on Friday.

Sea-surface temperatures “are about as warm as they’ve ever been” in that region, hitting levels up to 4 degrees Celsius above normal in the northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea.

For fall and early winter, all of Alaska is expected to have weather that is both significantly warmer and significantly wetter than normal, according to the Climate Prediction Center forecast.

The wetter-than-normal conditions are part of a clear pattern in place since at least 2003 that is linked to sea-ice retreat, Thoman said.

The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for a wetter-than normal early winter is influenced by an expected El Nino weather pattern in the North Pacific Ocean.

Thoman, a climate-science fixture in Alaska, is retiring from the National Weather Service this month and moving to the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, a NOAA-funded program headquartered at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Last night's Euro run was +4.25 SD at 168 right over the pole.

We've seen some nutty height anomalies over the Arctic at times in the past few freezing seasons, but this takes the cake. It's like taking the entire North Pacific atmosphere/airmass and ramming it into the Arctic.

Seeing some hints of an extended chinook event off the Kuskowim-Alaska Ranges and later the Brooks Range too. Definitely going to throw an extended brake on re-freeze. Might even see some drops (as Friv alluded to earlier).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

We've seen some nutty height anomalies over the Arctic at times in the past few freezing seasons, but this takes the cake. It's like taking the entire North Pacific atmosphere/airmass and ramming it into the Arctic.

Seeing some hints of an extended chinook event off the Kuskowim-Alaska Ranges and later the Brooks Range too. Definitely going to throw an extended brake on re-freeze. Might even see some drops (as Friv alluded to earlier).

What, if any consequences does this have for high lattitide blocking in October and even beyond,  in and around this region ? 

Also,  recently looking at the SST changes in the Gulf Of Alaska they are rising .

Would any of this warmth cause and or re-inforce a + PDO in developing in the month(s) ahead. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On September 30, 2018 at 10:55 AM, csnavywx said:

Records are going to get steamrolled for the next week or so.

The continuing record warmth is allowing the 2018 extent to edge closer to October 2007 and 2012.

IMG_0261.thumb.PNG.4adc7b3356cad3c283563a1dfb3cadd9.PNG

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On October 4, 2018 at 4:53 PM, LibertyBell said:

2016 was pretty low too.  This year's is later than any of them though like you said.

This current Arctic temperature spike is now easily the warmest on record for the early part of October. Another example of Arctic amplification going off the rails.

http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/Dox0x4RU8AAbota.jpg-small.jpg.94ae4a536fa4a5aaa3c232b3d4b462f2.jpg

Rick Thoman
@ AlaskaWx
Chukchi Sea ice extent from the @NSIDC passive microwave data has fallen over the past several days and as of October 05 is the third lowest since 1979: only 2007 and 2012 were lower. #Arctic #akwx #seaice @Climatologist49@ZLabe @CinderBDT907 pic.twitter.com/aZiqV4FWuT

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Record warmth continues with nearly no sea ice gains the last few days. The delayed freeze up is letting 2018 get closer to 2nd lowest extent for early October set in 2007.

 

IMG_0276.thumb.PNG.593f946a6de16d9adbfecb2fd6646354.PNG

dmi_temp_80N.thumb.png.47e8c0ef11f478760b2f562fdbe32ce6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×