Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[csnavywx]

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

CFSv2 forecasting a "blue ocean event" for this summer:

 

CFSv2 has been doing that since 2020, give or take. A better system, UFS, is linked below:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jszhu/seaice_seasonal/index.html

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, csnavywx said:

CFSv2 has been doing that since 2020, give or take. A better system, UFS, is linked below:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jszhu/seaice_seasonal/index.html

Wow, they need to expand that y-axis. We're not seeing the full ensemble mean spread for late summer because it's cutoff by the current y-axis. Some of those individual model runs must be at or near BOE criteria as well.

[bluewave]

Lowest December extent on record just below 2016.

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic

Arctic sea ice extent for December averaged 11.42 million square kilometers (4.41 million square miles), the lowest extent in the satellite record for the month (Figure 1a). This comes on the heels of the third lowest extent for the month in November 2024 (Figure 1b). The December extent was 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month set in 2016, and 1.42 million square kilometers (548,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average.

Including 2024, the downward linear trend in Arctic sea ice extent for December is 44,000 square kilometers (17,000 square miles) per year, or 3.4 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979, December has lost 1.98 million square kilometers (764,000 square miles) of sea ice, which is equivalent to three times the size of Texas.

 

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

UFS mean forecast lowered to just above 2012 levels for upcoming season (down from ~4M in Dec to ~3.5M)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's been 13 years since the last max.. You would think we would start moving toward loss exponentially again. Big difference has been cold 500mb and SLP over the Arctic in the warm season. Last strong High pressure Summer pattern was 2019. 

[Typhoon Tip]

[bluewave]

https://science.nasa.gov/earth/arctic-winter-sea-ice-2026/#:~:text=End of dialog window.,Flight Center in Greenbelt%2C Maryland.

For the second consecutive year, winter sea ice in the Arctic reached a level that matches the lowest peak observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979. On March 15, Arctic sea ice extent reached 5.52 million square miles (14.29 million square kilometers), very close to the 2025 peak of 5.53 million square miles (14.31 million square kilometers). Scientists with NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder, note that the two years are statistically tied.

Along with the overall extent, researchers are also observing changes in ice thickness. “Based on what we’re seeing with NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite, much of the ice in the Arctic is thinner this year, especially in the Barents Sea northeast of Greenland.,” said Nathan Kurtz, chief of the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “The Sea of Okhotsk that borders northern Japan and Russia also had relatively low ice this year — a region that naturally experiences significant year-to-year variability.”

Scientists with NASA and NSIDC found that this winter’s peak Arctic ice coverage continues the long-term trend observed over the past several decades. This year, peak ice cover was below the average levels between 1981 and 2010 by roughly half a million square miles (about 1.3 million square kilometers). 

Sea ice extent is defined as the total area of the ocean with at least 15% ice concentration. The area of the Arctic Ocean covered in ice expands in the cold of winter. Although much of the sea ice melts in warmer months, some ice remains throughout the year. Recently, less new ice has been forming. As a result, less multi-year ice has accumulated.

“A low year or two don’t necessarily mean much by themselves,” said NSIDC ice scientist Walt Meier. But viewed within the long‑term downward trend since 1979, Meier added, they contribute to the overall picture of change in Arctic sea ice throughout the seasons.

[Typhoon Tip]

Relative to date, according to Climate Reanalyzer source the running sea ice is presently at a historic low

[iluvsnow]

So we're nearly to mid June and not any Arctic Sea Ice updates in nearly a month and a half. What's up?

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

So we're nearly to mid June and not any Arctic Sea Ice updates in nearly a month and a half. What's up?

 

[ORH_wxman]

Area on 6/13….8.66 million sq km

Heres how other years faired on the same date (I.e, 2012 had 420k less area than this year on the same date)

 

2012: -420k

2025: -130k

2019: -60k

2016: -50k

2007: +150k

2020: +190k

2011: +230k

2010: +240k

2023: +250k

2022: +280k

2021: +300k

2017: +310k

 

Still a lot of time left in the critical month of June. We’re lagging 2012 decently but it’s definitely possible to catch up. On the flip side, if we continue to lose ground to 2012 over the next couple weeks, then we can rule out a new record this year. Most of the cake gets baked in May and June in the arctic sea ice workd

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Area on 6/13….8.66 million sq km

Heres how other years faired on the same date (I.e, 2012 had 420k less area than this year on the same date)

 

2012: -420k

2025: -130k

2019: -60k

2016: -50k

2007: +150k

2020: +190k

2011: +230k

2010: +240k

2023: +250k

2022: +280k

2021: +300k

2017: +310k

 

Still a lot of time left in the critical month of June. We’re lagging 2012 decently but it’s definitely possible to catch up. On the flip side, if we continue to lose ground to 2012 over the next couple weeks, then we can rule out a new record this year. Most of the cake gets baked in May and June in the arctic sea ice workd

 

 June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C:

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C:

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just haven't been able to get Summer Arctic ridging since the ice melt peak in 2012. 15 years is impressive for that record to hold, in this exponentially warming world. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just haven't been able to get Summer Arctic ridging since the ice melt peak in 2012. 15 years is impressive for that record to hold, in this exponentially warming world. 

Not to overstep or bypass your statement.  It is interesting that the single one year overshot so far.   More on that in a moment...   

For me, the bigger story is that despite that record holding as long as it has, the year-to-year deltas since have in total averaged negative. In fact, an aspect that's been going on for decades prior to 2012 for that matter.  Global ice, not just sea ice, began receding around 1850 - altho it's accelerated notably since 2000.  So, a rather low bar of intelligence can infer we are at risk of another plummet at any time.

However, I think what 2012, and the 2023 (unilateral atmospheric/sea-temperature coupled explosion of thermal imbalance) both implicate is troubling:  the global climate system is capable of moving in unpredictable thrusts.  Not in a steady, predictable, thus easier to plan and adapt, linear ascent.  Even though 2023 seemed to cause a pause, followed by flurry of pimped out memes, there nothing in the climate reconstructions that suggests that wouldn't happen.  I mean geological history is not smooth nor a predictable practice.  So epistemically it should never be a surprise to anyone. 

When's the next thrust?

 

[GaWx]

 The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall:

 

This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall:

 

This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:

It’s a favorable pressure pattern for sea ice retention with the deep low north of Alaska. We have been seeing this weak dipole pattern much of the time since 2013.

Pretty much the opposite of the strong dipole pattern which was in place from 2007-2012 which lead to the multiple records.

But the post below shows that the Euro has a cold bias on the DMI chart below. Still a colder pattern but nothing as cold as the Euro shows. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

As of 6/29, 2026 sea ice area is 7.09 million sq km. This is currently 5th lowest:

 

2012: -380k

2010: -280k

2019: -170k

2024: -40k

2011: +2k

2020: +4k

2025: +10k

 

Still another day or two before I run the numbers but a new record is nearly ruled out. Top 3 is definitely still on the table. 

[GaWx]

19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

As of 6/29, 2026 sea ice area is 7.09 million sq km. This is currently 5th lowest:

 

2012: -380k

2010: -280k

2019: -170k

2024: -40k

2011: +2k

2020: +4k

2025: +10k

 

Still another day or two before I run the numbers but a new record is nearly ruled out. Top 3 is definitely still on the table. 

 
Thanks. Looking forward to your update.

 Per the following source (AMSR2), the current Arctic ice area is now getting pretty low with it a bit lower than 2020 and 2016, ~0.5 million sq km lower than 2024, and ~0.4 million sq km lower than the 2013-24 mean. Do you know anything about the reliability of this source?
 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

As of 6/29, 2026 sea ice area is 7.09 million sq km. This is currently 5th lowest:

 

2012: -380k

2010: -280k

2019: -170k

2024: -40k

2011: +2k

2020: +4k

2025: +10k

 

Still another day or two before I run the numbers but a new record is nearly ruled out. Top 3 is definitely still on the table. 

New record relative to what?   Do you mean monthly or whole year?  -I'm assuming month.

This rusty dark curve doesn't look like 5th lowest, per date though.  As far as yearly, given that steepness of this delta, that doesn't really infer it won't end up lower then every other member ( May-June-July), but obviously too early to get a fix on that. 

I don't know about Climate Reanalyzer accuracy and statistics therein ? but this is off their product fwiw.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 
Thanks. Looking forward to your update.

 Per the following source (AMSR2), the current Arctic ice area is now getting pretty low with it a bit lower than 2020 and 2016, ~0.5 million sq km lower than 2024, and ~0.4 million sq km lower than the 2013-24 mean. Do you know anything about the reliability of this source?
 

AMSR2 area is totally fine as an instant metric. It’s more accurate than NSIDC SSMI/S area….but the key is that SSMI/S area has much more predictive power than AMSR2 area. 
 

SSMI/S (what NSIDC uses) gets fooled by melt ponds whereas AMSR2 not nearly as much. But we actually like that SSMI/S gets fooled by melt ponds because melt ponds in June are more predictive of seasonal minimum area than AMSR2 area itself. So we’re basically using SSMI/S as a proxy tool for meltponding. 
 

This is why there are some years where we may be flirting with the lowest extent or area late in June and I’ll make a post that says a new seasonal record is almost impossible and many will ask why or in earlier times, call me crazy and a science denier. The reason is that meltponding isn’t prolific enough to sustain huge melting deeper into the summer.
 

The second half of June was quite cold in the Beaufort/Chukchi region which has the highest sea ice area in the post-2007 arctic right now at this point (nearly tied with 2009). That is another bearish sign for a new record. That region is typically where we see huge losses in record or near-record low sea ice years. A lot of the low area numbers are currently being driven by record low sea ice in Hudson Bay, Greenland sea, and Baffin Bay. These are mostly irrelevant to the minimum later in the season. In fact, if you go just by arctic basin (Beaufort/Chukchi/East Siberian Sea/Laptev/Central arctic basin) plus CAA (Canadian Archipelago) composite area, the only post-2007 years that are higher than 2026 are 2009, 2013, and 2014. Those also happen to be the 3 highest minimums post-2007.

 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

New record relative to what?   Do you mean monthly or whole year?  -I'm assuming month.

This rusty dark curve doesn't look like 5th lowest, per date though.  As far as yearly, given that steepness of this delta, that doesn't really infer it won't end up lower then every other member ( May-June-July), but obviously too early to get a fix on that. 

I don't know about Climate Reanalyzer accuracy and statistics therein ? but this is off their product fwiw.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh

 

See my response above to GaWx…not familiar with climate reanalyzer but it’s probably pretty accurate given that AMSR2 area is very low too. NSIDC area is quite low as well, just not as low as AMSR2 or climate reanalyzer.
 

But we aren’t that interested in getting the most accurate area measurement right now for “seasonal minimum” record purposes. We’re more interested in what can give the most accurate forecast…which I outlined above in that response. 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

See my response above to GaWx…not familiar with climate reanalyzer but it’s probably pretty accurate given that AMSR2 area is very low too. NSIDC area is quite low as well, just not as low as AMSR2 or climate reanalyzer.
 

But we aren’t that interested in getting the most accurate area measurement right now for “seasonal minimum” record purposes. We’re more interested in what can give the most accurate forecast…which I outlined above in that response. 

Yeah...agreed.   I wasn't interested in nailing down - per se - where it is we "actually" are...    full disclosure ( there's alien technology being hid from us!!!  repent repent)  no  but to be honest, I'm wondering if CR can be trusted or might have known this or that.

I mean I don't know anymore.  This f era of reality and civility ... it's got a problem. One that is almost as big as GW and it's entirely self-manifesting at species' level.

[csnavywx]

20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

AMSR2 area is totally fine as an instant metric. It’s more accurate than NSIDC SSMI/S area….but the key is that SSMI/S area has much more predictive power than AMSR2 area. 
 

SSMI/S (what NSIDC uses) gets fooled by melt ponds whereas AMSR2 not nearly as much. But we actually like that SSMI/S gets fooled by melt ponds because melt ponds in June are more predictive of seasonal minimum area than AMSR2 area itself. So we’re basically using SSMI/S as a proxy tool for meltponding. 
 

This is why there are some years where we may be flirting with the lowest extent or area late in June and I’ll make a post that says a new seasonal record is almost impossible and many will ask why or in earlier times, call me crazy and a science denier. The reason is that meltponding isn’t prolific enough to sustain huge melting deeper into the summer.
 

The second half of June was quite cold in the Beaufort/Chukchi region which has the highest sea ice area in the post-2007 arctic right now at this point (nearly tied with 2009). That is another bearish sign for a new record. That region is typically where we see huge losses in record or near-record low sea ice years. A lot of the low area numbers are currently being driven by record low sea ice in Hudson Bay, Greenland sea, and Baffin Bay. These are mostly irrelevant to the minimum later in the season. In fact, if you go just by arctic basin (Beaufort/Chukchi/East Siberian Sea/Laptev/Central arctic basin) plus CAA (Canadian Archipelago) composite area, the only post-2007 years that are higher than 2026 are 2009, 2013, and 2014. Those also happen to be the 3 highest minimums post-2007.

 

Yeah, would need a turbo +AD/-AO to counter how well it's gone in the main basin so far this year. Probably not getting that until next year (post-peak Nino).

[bluewave]

2012 had record May into June early melt ponding with the strong AD and AO blocking continuing through July. Then came the record early August storm leading to the steepest sea ice decline ever during the first half of August. No season since then has been able to put together those three factors.

2020 came the closest with impressive early melt ponding and the strongest AD and AO blocking since 2012. But the lack of a major storm in August and relaxing blocking as the month progressed allowed 2020 to finish just behind 2012.

This season so far with lower pressures and colder temperatures from the late spring into early summer over the CAB is the opposite of 2020. So my guess is that as we head into early August 2012 will remain the leader.

The 2007-2012 era was unique in that it featured consistent AD and AO blocking with plenty of May and June melt ponding. This quickly reversed in 2013 and continues to this day.

The one thing we can say is that the historic Arctic sea ice thickness decline due to the loss from 2007-2012 of older ice has not reversed even with the more favorable summer conditions for retention since 2013. This has resulted in most of the seasons finishing in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range. The finishes in the 6s and 7s haven’t been seen since the early 2000s. 2012 and 2020 were the only seasons to finish below 4million sq km. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/1/2026 at 10:31 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

New record relative to what?   Do you mean monthly or whole year?  -I'm assuming month.

This rusty dark curve doesn't look like 5th lowest, per date though.  As far as yearly, given that steepness of this delta, that doesn't really infer it won't end up lower then every other member ( May-June-July), but obviously too early to get a fix on that. 

I don't know about Climate Reanalyzer accuracy and statistics therein ? but this is off their product fwiw.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh

 

Also note sea ice extent (coverage of 15% or greater) versus area.

[ORH_wxman]

On 7/2/2026 at 1:50 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Also note sea ice extent (coverage of 15% or greater) versus area.

NSIDC extent is actually at a record low for today’s date. But due to the factors explained above, it probably won’t sniff a new record this year.