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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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The first part of both videos reminded me of the Wichita Andover storm as it was over McConnell AFB. The debris being thrown just beyond the parking lot. All it needed was a barracks building to the right of the screen.

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Looks like the first real week of heat will be arriving in Texas next week with mid-90's in the forecast and dry conditions.

We've been doing pretty well with receiving rain this spring in east Texas... but it looks like I'll have to start watering my lawn next week.

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I was looking at the radar for a thunderstorm in Amarillo, and then I came upon something I hadn't thought about for a long time. Coming from the north, US-87/287 splits into two streets southbound, two streets northbound. It then combines into a single street that is US-87. Then US-87/I-27 goes to the south of town, but US-287 goes east, after combining with I-40 at the large interchange. US-287 then splits away from I-40.

 

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I got lucky on a few days ago and picked up 0.35" at my house, enough to avoid watering. The forecast for the next week looks favorable for rain as well.

We drove to Fort Worth last night as the MCS was rolling in, it blew our Toyota around pretty good on 635.

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Many areas around DFW got around 2" of rain, but some storm cells must have sat over Dallas for a long time.

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The DFW metro sure has been lucky with getting some really nice rains the last few days.

Not so lucky here in Longview - yet. Chances of rain continue through the weekend.

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Rained today in Albuquerque. Now up to 1.07" for the month. One of the wettest June in the last 30 years, fourth I think - with a week to go yet.

For the past 90 years, the wettest Junes are all 1.40" and higher. Will be interesting to see if we can get there. Chance of rain again tomorrow. 

My analogs had 1.30" or so for June, so pretty good really, although most was in early June, and I thought it would arrive in late June.

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I ended up getting 0.7" in my rain gauge yesterday evening. Just narrowly missed much heavier downpours that would have given me double the amount or more, but I'll take it!

The NWS forecast seems much more optimistic than the QPF predicted by WPC over the next few days. We have 40-50% rain chances each day through Friday, and then 30% chances Saturday and Sunday. WPC's graphics show dry conditions Friday-Sunday.

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On 6/23/2020 at 6:58 PM, raindancewx said:

Rained today in Albuquerque. Now up to 1.07" for the month. One of the wettest June in the last 30 years, fourth I think - with a week to go yet.

For the past 90 years, the wettest Junes are all 1.40" and higher. Will be interesting to see if we can get there. Chance of rain again tomorrow. 

My analogs had 1.30" or so for June, so pretty good really, although most was in early June, and I thought it would arrive in late June.

this is a weird pattern. North of Denver is OK, Albuquerque and south is OK, in between is an absolutely cracking drought. Persistence!!

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The June pattern nationally is pretty dry. Even in NM, it is really just small areas of the Rio Grande Valley that have been wet this month. The CFS has been trending much colder in July for the West though. My outlook for June had the SE/NW cold, with the NE/MW warm, other areas near average. That'll be too cold for the Plains, but decent to good elsewhere. I think I had the June high for Albuquerque at 89.4F from the pure analogs, and through yesterday it was 90.8F. So I'll be a bit too cold, but not much. Sometimes I adjust the analogs warmer for the Earth warming, but whenever I try it here, it ends up being colder. June highs are warming ~3.5F/century here, so I would have added 1.4F based on the analog years I used for 90.8F if I had done it - but even that will likely be a bit too cold.

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Continuing the trend of getting just enough rain, but missing out on much bigger amounts. I got about 0.1" Friday evening and 0.75" early this morning. 

About 10 miles away NWS Shreveport noted a measurement of 6.43" from just this morning... :raining:

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Multiple severe thunderstorm warnings over the DFW area. More active afternoon than most of chasing season

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The local NWS actually has 104 now for July 12th. I'm skeptical that it will be that hot this late into the year. 

It hasn't been over 100 here in the July 7 - Sept 30 time frame since 2010. It has only happened twice since 2000, in 2003 and 2010. Hitting 100 exactly is a lot more common. But 104 would be top five for heat after week one of July.

Initially, last week, it had looked like July 7 or so would see 100 degree heat, but it doesn't look like it will now. Today is certainly clear, it will be in the mid-90s.

My rule for Albuquerque highs is that the temperature at noon is 10 degrees below the high. So 104 implies a 94 degree reading at Noon. I've been in Albuquerque since 2010 and I think that's only happened one day in 10 years. Today was 86 at noon, and sure enough it is 94 at 3 pm, and will probably get to 96. It's pretty hard to be 94 at Noon here, since the lows even on the hottest days, tend to drop to about 70 around 6 am. We'll see though.

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Monday through Tuesday (mostly overnight) I finally cashed in. I measured 3.25" in my rain gauge. Pretty crazy how wet we have been over the last week or so. I'm glad I finally got a really good rain since the Texas furnace is about to start crankin'.

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Corpus Christi should really watch out for some water damage with the tropical storm Hannah they will get some consisten high water surge!

 

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I've been updating my sheets that compare solar tendencies to weather in Albuquerque. First look since 2015-16 data was in.

- Snowfall frequency in March & April now looks like it may be significantly impacted by the sun, with two of the last four low solar years seeing snow in April in Albuquerque (way above average frequency for four years) and none of the last four Marches seeing snow (way below average frequency, especially with two El Ninos). Over the next 10 years, I think snow frequency for March & April will both become statistically significant between the high and low parts of the solar cycle here - both have p-values of around 0.05-0.10 if you do a difference in proportions test right now.

- Cold winter highs in Albuquerque are still far more common with low solar activity. This held up to some extent in the last four years, with 2018-19 about 2F below the 30-year average (1991-2020), and 2019-20 about 0.5F below the 30 year average, with the winters also below (2018-19) and dead on average v. the past 100 year average highs.

- Heavy snow months are much more likely in high solar winters, despite the tendency for low solar winters to be colder.

The data now includes 89 years, up from 85 before, with a substantial growth in low solar years (32, +4). I waited until we had two more La Nina and two more El Ninos for the update too. Long term, the odds of very heavy precipitation in a high solar winter also seem to be nearing statistical significance relative to low solar winters. 

For snow, it looks like there is an extra 19 percentage point shot at getting 2", 3", 4", 5", or 6" of snow in a month with high solar activity, compared to low solar activity.

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A couple showers last week added up to about 0.25" but yesterday I cashed in on 0.55" from a strong shower produced by the enhanced sea breeze from one of Hanna's outer bands.

Another wave is headed this way this afternoon. 

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Storms later yesterday morning ahead of a July 31 cold front (say what??) brought about 1.05" of rain in about 30 minutes. Chances of rain for the next week look pretty slim with drier air moving into the region.

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No rain last week and nothing in the forecast for this week. The real summer has finally arrived. Highs forecast in the upper 90's. Guess it's time to break out the sprinkler!

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