A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 counterpoint - izzi sounds rather unimpressed for tonight and even less so with mcs chances into the weekend which are looking worse and worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfan40 Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 counterpoint - izzi sounds rather unimpressed for tonight and even less so with mcs chances into the weekend which are looking worse and worse Can you elaborate on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 There will likely be a sharp cut-off to the precip along the western/southwestern flank of this band, with much of our CWA probably remaining dry tonight. In fact, not out of the question that the band of convection could set up just to our NE and keep most, if not all, of the CWA dry tonight. For this reason, have sharpened up the POP gradient and kept the highest pops at the lower end of the likely range. as far as Fri and Sat, overdone dews, weak forcing, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfan40 Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 as far as Fri and Sat, overdone dews, weak forcing, etc ^ thanks Alek I see SPC still has SW Ontario (where I am located) and points SE into OH and PA in the slight risk for D3. I've been following this forecast and I'm getting wary that this potential MCS may be a bust for SW Ontario. Typical considering the model signals were somewhat consistent for most of the week. SMH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Had some pea size hail around 4:30 this morning and nearly continuous lightning for about 90 minutes. 1.8" in the gauge. 4000 people in the TC metro without power. Looks like another good blast possible tomorrow night per the 4k NAM and a few other cams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 nice^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Today isn't going to happen like some wanted/expected. Training flooders tonight will be about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Both today and Saturday have slowly looked less and less impressive. May still get an MCS on Saturday this far east. What a slow start to the season it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Today isn't going to happen like some wanted/expected. Training flooders tonight will be about it. that's all i want never had any interest in svr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Today isn't going to happen like some wanted/expected. Training flooders tonight will be about it. +1 Sun should have been out by now to heat things up. Ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 i'd hit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2016 Author Share Posted June 9, 2016 welp Looks like the recent runs are still hinting at a farther south placement for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Looks like the recent runs are still hinting at a farther south placement for tonight. yep, with 4km/RGEM north given the current location, cloud cover, and festering garbage...i'm leaning on a further south placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2016 Author Share Posted June 9, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 UPDATE 1122 AM CDT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS HAVE EVOLVED SOMEWHAT AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN ANTICIPATED. THE TWO MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS WERE FOR THE MORNING ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AND FOR REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, OR FOR THE MORNING ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND INHIBIT OR DELAY LATER REDEVELOPMENT. THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING OUT. STILL THINK TRENDS WILL FAVOR DISSIPATION OF EXISTING ACTIVITY AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH THE MOST RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER SO FAR THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH CENTRAL IL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING A NEW AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS IS THE REASON FOR NOT BUMPING TEMPERATURES DOWN MORE THAN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES, AT LEAST FOR NOW. IT IS POSSIBLE ONLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THE FORECAST COULD BE TOO COOL FOR THOSE LOCATIONS AND TOO WARM FARTHER NORTH. LENNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 getting close to throwing in the towel on the train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Nothing is going to pop in this overcast environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2016 Author Share Posted June 9, 2016 getting close to throwing in the towel on the train Severe prospects are meh but gonna be disappointing if we don't at least get training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Severe prospects are meh but gonna be disappointing if we don't at least get training. not liking what i'm seeing out of the hrrr in that respect wrf-weenie keeping hopes alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Looks like todays part busted, we can only hope for Friday and Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2016 Author Share Posted June 9, 2016 Signal on HRRR looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 hot run fo sho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 LOT lowered pops tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Steady rain here, but no thunder with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 just west of ARR in srn Dekalb county off the new HRRR valid at 23z which is trending in the direction of a more favorable environment in that area, just dependent on actually getting a storm to go...also sharpening up the boundary more and catching onto the stronger sfc winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Convection in SW Wisconsin continues along the nose of the low-level jet, which is still forecast to slowly progress eastward and focus over south-central and southeast WI and northeast IL this evening. It's not a matter of if there is training, in my opinion, just where. PWATs are already higher than in the axis of precip over MN and IA last night, where some 2-4" amounts occurred. Should see PWAT peak near 1.75" this evening per global guidance, which has a good handle on them now. Lack of sun and heating is irrelevant for strongly forced, elevated events like these. The HRRR has not performed well with this event so far, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Favorable wind shear near the warm front already, but as mentioned, it seems conditional/questionable at best that any storms can fire there. The HRRR and HOPWRF ENS show only weak, short-lived convection to the west of ongoing shower/t-shower activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Seen a lot of talk about things further west for today/Saturday, but what does everyone think about tomorrow in the MN area? Kinda hard to decide which thread to put this in since MN is split in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 New HRRR hitting the Chicago area hard. Heavy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Some good forecast soundings for DTW coming from the 18z suite just before the cold front rolls through. Doesn't look that impressive for tornadoes but should be good for damaging winds and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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