Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Major changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Euro is further east and very Ukie like ( track wise ) Pounds the west coast of Florida and stalls there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 big changes on the euro-cat 4 into LA to weak but prolific rain producer into FLA. Unusual to see such a dramatic change in 12 hrs on the Euro....dynamic situation and will change 10 more times. Storm doesnt even really develop until 4 days from now-it could completely dissipate by then given its ragged appearance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Makes another landfall near Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 10-20" of rain over almost the entirety of the state of FL. Only exception are areas North and East of Orlando and the far Western panhandle. Then it looks to come right up the coast with moisture reaching our area as early as Wednesday while the system is still near the FL/GA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 983mb into the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Cat 1 into the Big Bend, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Such a huge run to run shift. Not even close to any consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Somewhat banterish, and obviously this is going to change, but even 10-20" of rain in a state, which by and large is a massive sandbar, would it not be the best case scenario, as opposed to striking New Orleans, aka an upside down bucket of a city? The roads will flood, but if there is one state, aside from Louisiana almost designed to handle mass quantities of water, it would be Florida imho. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Such a huge run to run shift. Not even close to any consensus Long way to go on this one. (unless it falls apart in the next day or two which is possible in my opinion) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Just a ridiculous amount of rain from Miami, all the way around FL, up the West coast of FL, into the Big Bend, through GA, SC, NC and extreme SE VA. Secondary max of 10"+ near OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Weird run for sure.. later in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 What is it going to do once it exits the east coast at southern NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Anywhere along the east and gulf coast has to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Just now, Morris said: What is it going to do once it exits the east coast at southern NC? heads ENE out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, Morris said: What is it going to do once it exits the east coast at southern NC? Slides OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Strengthening again off of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Passes us close enough to brush the SNJ coast with the far outer bands. And ten days away. If this happened verbatim it would be a historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Euro sort of looks like Hurricane Donna but further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jason WX said: Euro sort of looks like Hurricane Donna but further west Track, not intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 big shift east. 18z initilization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 8 minutes ago, UnionWX said: big shift east. 18z initilization And the vast majority never have it as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Animated 12z JMA and 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 NAM is 998 east of the Carribeans at 84 . A little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 EPS is way west of OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 GFS very similar through 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 7 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Normally the NAM is completely useless when it comes to tropical systems. In this case, it fits fairly decently into the model consensus with a location near the Bahamas in about 4 days and a ridge located over the Eastern US and Western Atlantic. The ridge is also building, shunting the trough well West into the Northern Plains. If this occurred verbatim, I see no way to miss a landfall on the East coast of Florida. Locally, we typically have less impacts when tropical systems landfall in the gulf, but with the ridge placement, it's possible that the remnants could track up the Apps. See TS Lee 2011. Ugh, that one. Closest I ever saw to total disaster in my lifetime back in NEPA, right up there with the 1996 flood event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Even weaker on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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