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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You're all better off walking away from this for the next two days. It has virtually no chance of developing until the weekend. 

This.  And it's quite possible it dissipates given the dry air and shear.  If it makes it til Saturday, then we may see it ramp up.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Brian5671 said:

This.  And it's quite possible it dissipates given the dry air and shear.  If it makes it til Saturday, then we may see it ramp up.

The shear isn't really that bad and it's peaking today, so the upper levels will be improving greatly once it reaches the Bahamas. We do have some drier air to deal with too, but it's going to be moving into a more moist environment in the Gulf.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

It looks like the center is North of Hispaniola now with some convection trying to form closer to the center. The first hurdle was surviving a close encounter with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The second hurdle will be the shear for the next day or two and the dry air. But after that, conditions should be greatly improving as it nears FL.

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avn_lalo-animated.gif

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Morris said:

Tropical Storm Gaston advisory 12 issued. Gaston weakens to a tropical storm over the central atlantic. http://go.usa.gov/W3H

It's moving towards a more hostile environment with increasing shear thanks to an ULL. Although it's forecasted to weaken further over the next few days, the official NHC forecast has it reaching CAT 2 Hurricane Status by 96hrs.

  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 20.4N  44.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 22.1N  45.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 24.4N  48.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 26.0N  50.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 27.1N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 29.4N  56.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 31.0N  58.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 33.0N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snow88 said:

It rides the east coast of Florida. West of 6z so maybe it's starting the west trend.

It has been inaccurately blowing up the convection, causing a more pole-ward motion. Then the next run, the model realizes that the convection is actually much weaker and corrects itself. The NAM might be somewhat useful once it nears FL, but it lacks input and skill required. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It has been inaccurately blowing up the convection, causing a more pole-ward motion. Then the next run, the model realizes that the convection is actually much weaker and corrects itself. The NAM might be somewhat useful once it nears FL, but it lacks input and skill required. 

Nam is always fun to look at

Onto the GFS

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