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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N


bluewave

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big changes on the euro-cat 4 into LA to weak but prolific rain producer into FLA.   Unusual to see such a dramatic change in 12 hrs on the Euro....dynamic situation and will change 10 more times.  Storm doesnt even really develop until 4 days from now-it could completely dissipate by then given its ragged appearance now.

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10-20" of rain over almost the entirety of the state of FL. Only exception are areas North and East of Orlando and the far Western panhandle. 

Then it looks to come right up the coast with moisture reaching our area as early as Wednesday while the system is still near the FL/GA line.

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Somewhat banterish, and obviously this is going to change, but even 10-20" of rain in a state, which by and large is a massive sandbar, would it not be the best case scenario, as opposed to striking New Orleans, aka an upside down bucket of a city? The roads will flood, but if there is one state, aside from Louisiana almost designed to handle mass quantities of water, it would be Florida imho. Thoughts?

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7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Normally the NAM is completely useless when it comes to tropical systems. In this case, it fits fairly decently into the model consensus with a location near the Bahamas in about 4 days and a ridge located over the Eastern US and Western Atlantic. The ridge is also building, shunting the trough well West into the Northern Plains. If this occurred verbatim, I see no way to miss a landfall on the East coast of Florida. 

Locally, we typically have less impacts when tropical systems landfall in the gulf, but with the ridge placement, it's possible that the remnants could track up the Apps. 

See TS Lee 2011.

lee_precip.png

Ugh, that one. :( Closest I ever saw to total disaster in my lifetime back in NEPA, right up there with the 1996 flood event.

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