ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 That is why I am hoping the model is wrong, I would prefer the chance at better action in the afternoon than a dying MCS. Welcome to the struggle of the lower Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Welcome to the struggle of the lower Great Lakes I am from Columbus so know very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 I am from Columbus so know very well Ah yes... I'm sure you're enjoying the severe weather down there more than Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 That triple point setup E of the Caprock tomorrow is looking quite interesting on the higher res models, with some very steep mid level lapse rates (H5 temps of nearly -20˚C) leading to SB/MLCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg there through the later afternoon. Very strongly backed near surface flow veering to SSW at 700 mb should lead to enough low level shear to cause an issue. If we don't see a huge amount of convective overturning through the night into tomorrow morning, this may be a rather volatile spot later on (and more friendly for chasers perhaps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Texas decided that it was game time at 4:30. Nice couplet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The HRRR suggests a substantial severe weather risk will develop from the D/FW Metroplex southwest to Stephenville this afternoon. We'll have to watch trends but the CAPE values are extremely high for early March. The HRRR has them on the order of 4,000 J/Kg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Wow. HRRR has storms riding the outflow boundary near DFW this afternoon. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The HRRR suggests a substantial severe weather risk will develop from the D/FW Metroplex southwest to Stephenville this afternoon. We'll have to watch trends but the CAPE values are extremely high for early March. The HRRR has them on the order of 4,000 J/Kg! Was just going to mention this, a change from last nights run. Seems to show an outflow laying down just north of metroplex, something FWD mentioned the RAP was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Now 10% hatched tor risk for Houston to San Antonio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 A relatively large 10% hatched tornado area at that... No mention of strong tornadoes in the discussion though. Oddly, the ENH category on the D1SWO does not match up with the 30% wind/10% tornado probabilities it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 I thought it was odd there was no mention of strong tornadoes. I guess I'll trust the graphic. All in all, could be a pretty long day for much of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 That snuck up on me. Two areas of embedded rotation there. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The cell SW of Lampasas is starting to get some better rotation aloft. I might head out for that one in a bit. *EDIT: and as soon as I say that, it slops back out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 CASA radar showing 80+ mph winds moving towards Ft. Worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Seems very broad to my untrained eye, but not liking that storm heading my way in the Keller/N Fort Worth area. Really do not want to go to a tornado situation on a critical yearbook work day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The rotation in Lampasas County is pretty strong now Edit: Pretty intense couplet, but no definite debris signature. Still, wouldn't be surprised if there is tornado on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 HRRR showing WAA activity in east Texas strengthening through the morning with supercells/tornadoes possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 I don't think DFW is gonna get much action tomorrow. That MCS is going to ruin the atmosphere. Maybe some thunder, strong winds at best, from an MCS that forms overnight Guess I may have to eat my words. Good thing I'm still a novice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 I just got tornado warning and to take shelter sent to my phone from NWS, but do not show anything arriving for another 30-45 minutes. In Killeen TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 I just got tornado warning and to take shelter sent to my phone from NWS, but do not show anything arriving for another 30-45 minutes. In Killeen TX. There's no warning for you right now, but I'd keep an eye out if I were you. Some storms to the west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 There's no warning for you right now, but I'd keep an eye out if I were you. Some storms to the west and south. Definitely have my eyes open. How odd that I got that message, though. After further investigating, it seems there was a warning on the Lampassas storm which because it was headed to Killeen, I got the warning? I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 HRRR is showing a discrete supercell that lasts for 6 hours this evening. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Definitely have my eyes open. How odd that I got that message, though. After further investigating, it seems there was a warning on the Lampassas storm which because it was headed to Killeen, I got the warning? I'm not sure. your phone must go by county warning area itself. but that storm that was near Lampasas earlier is now back to a severe thunderstorm warning for Gatesville, with Waco wanting to keep an eye on that one. as for the new warned cell that monsoonman just told you about,that one is the one that was showing hail earlier near Liberty Hill and Lago Vista. that storm is ~25 miles SW of downtown Temple. but the new severe t-storm warning you just got is for that whole cluster of storms, from Georgetown to the west end of Ft Hood. Gusts nearing 60+ and downpours likely (~1.5"/hr via radar), all moving NE at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 your phone must go by county warning area itself. but that storm that was near Lampasas earlier is now back to a severe thunderstorm warning for Gatesville, with Waco wanting to keep an eye on that one. as for the new warned cell that monsoonman just told you about,that one is the one that was showing hail earlier near Liberty Hill and Lago Vista. that storm is ~25 miles SW of downtown Temple. but the new severe t-storm warning you just got is for that whole cluster of storms, from Georgetown to the west end of Ft Hood. Gusts nearing 60+ and downpours likely (~1.5"/hr via radar), all moving NE at 35. Thanks, Jim! Having lived in Norman OK for awhile, I was a little freaked out, especially not having my daughter here with me. I'm watching it all unfold. It's pretty nasty outside, with the worst to come. Let's just hope it stays severe! Glad the rotation is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 HRRR is showing a discrete supercell that lasts for 6 hours this evening. Damn. Where does it show that originating? Looks uncomfortably close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Where does it show that originating? Looks uncomfortably close. It can be traced back to 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Thanks, Jim! Having lived in Norman OK for awhile, I was a little freaked out, especially not having my daughter here with me. I'm watching it all unfold. It's pretty nasty outside, with the worst to come. Let's just hope it stays severe! Glad the rotation is gone. Gatesville storm, yea the rotation is gone. the storm near Jarrell moving towards Belton, still got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Close, but no cigar, was hard to tell at first. Two counties west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Gatesville storm, yea the rotation is gone. the storm near Jarrell moving towards Belton, still got it. grk_1528z_0308.png Yuck. Certainly glad I moved from Temple... Keeping my eye on that for sure. THANK YOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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