north pgh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Check out this video from 1996 and see if there are any similarities. It is from a weather channel update after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Would be a pretty brutal flood event, too, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man colonel I love those pivotal weather maps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Philips Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmmm weenies unite, the models now showing a the precip growing NW. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Low res nam looks much different from 4K http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM-4km&p=accsnow&rh=2016012200&fh=60&r=ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Low res nam looks much different from 4K http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM-4km&p=accqpf&rh=2016012200&fh=60&r=ma&dpdt= It does, but took a really huge jump north from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It does, but took a really huge jump north from 18z.Yeah I agree. Just look how close the 12 inch is to Allegheny County compared to 18z. I would hate to be our mets right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's 22 and I'm sweating ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If u pay 2 dollars can we get the gfs early like 10 pm ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Jeff v upped his total by an inch from the beginning of the news to the weather segment went from 3-6 south agc and 6-10 south border and wv to 4-6 and 7-10 I told my wife he just changed it and went back on the dvr lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With not much change on the rgem and nam reputation for overdoing qpf, I guess it comes down to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Do the foreign models get the same data from the balloons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not to rain on the parade here, but did you guys notice that the NWS dropped the totals down to 2-4 with their latest update? They were at 4-6 in the county earlier. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just seems like the nam keeps the low tighter to e coast while it starts pulling away on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS not good for us. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not to rain on the parade here, but did you guys notice that the NWS dropped the totals down to 2-4 with their latest update? They were at 4-6 in the county earlier. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Based on the latest gfs 2-4 might be pushing it http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012200&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS not good for us. Oh well. Can't believe we can't get a lousy 20-40 mile adjustment, I guess there still a chance but models seem to really be locked into that northern extent of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Based on the latest gfs 2-4 might be pushing it http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012200&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=060 Yeah, I just saw it. I hate to see you guys get your hopes up over these NAM runs when most of the time the NAM is garbage. I'm not saying it's always wrong, but it's usually only right when it eventually falls in line with the rest of the models. It gives false hope with an occasional eye popping run, then comes back to earth eventually to join the rest.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah, I just saw it. I hate to see you guys get your hopes up over these NAM runs when most of the time the NAM is garbage. I'm not saying it's always wrong, but it's usually only right when it eventually falls in line with the rest of the models. It gives false hope with an occasional eye popping run, then comes back to earth eventually to join the rest. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk I think we all pretty much expected this right? It was exciting to see the nam until the gfs came out and smacked it down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hey folks one more major model and then nowcasting. Please remember that the model is not a final. The actual precip could be further north when it gets here. It is not an exact science. Just because the model doesn't shift 20 miles the storm could move 20 miles. Let's wait and be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think we all pretty much expected this right? It was exciting to see the nam until the gfs came out and smacked it down lol Yea, the 4K nam was all I needed to see to say Mamma NAM was off her rocket. It will come down to radar watching time tomorrow for any hope of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Does anyone have the HRRR model? Good short range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gfs still creeps a foot into extreme SW Pa, so its not like its horrible. Just not the shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Eh knew the gfs wouldn't cave. Just gotta see where the low ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 True the gfs probably wasn't all that much off from the previous run, just was hoping we might see a bump north after seeing the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Check out this video from 1996 and see if there are any similarities. It is from a weather channel update after the storm passes. So we are also riding the edge here to the west of you guys doing everything we can to suck this storm north. When I saw that snowfall map from '96, (here in Columbus we got 9" from that), I can't believe how similar it is to what the model output is for this storm, (except for the northern extent in the OV). The interesting thing was that storm was entirely a now cast situation here. The forecast the morning of was for a dusting. I know you guys got clobbered, but was that storm also a surprise for PIttsburgh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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