dj3 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Man this one is going to sting. I wouldn't care nearly as much if it the max potential was some where around a foot, but this looks to be a historic storm. Hard to believe how many major snowstorms DC and suburbs have gotten in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What if euro bounces north. Then I get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Let's be patient wait for good or bad changes .off topic Duquesne light should hire more operators on phone for 49 minutes waiting ., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Then I get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is either gonna keep moving south or north. There is no way this will be the final snow amounts.. Today slight northern trend or if we are going to stay Eeyore, the southward trend has been retarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Let's be patient wait for good or bad changes .off topic Duquesne light should hire more operators on phone for 49 minutes waiting ., Gonna suck when power crews from Ohio drive through PA to get to Maryland/Virginia. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gonna suck when power crews from Ohio drive through PA to get to Maryland/Virginia. lol. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Since we're 48 hours out from the onset, I'll go with 4-8" on my first call south of I-70 down to Morgantown, and 2-6" between Butler and I-70. South of Morgantown and you're looking at 8-12" probably, definitely more into the mountains to the East. I can easily see these totals moving in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro will be huge ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1343Z WED JAN 20 2016 THE 12Z NAM BEGAN AND IS RUNNING ON TIME WITH 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...73 CONUS...9 MEXICAN...AND 8 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS AVAILABLE FOR INGEST. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 70414/SYA - MISSING TTBB 76225/CUU - 10156...WEAK SIGNAL 78073/NAS - 10148...ASCENT NOT AUTHORIZED FOR THIS PERIOD 91348/PNI - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 673-671 MB, 613-610 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE 91376/MAJ - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 767-756 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE 78970/POS - PURGED ALL HGTS/TEMPS...PORTIONS LOW/COLD CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE U.S. EAST COAST. IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM. *** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS *** CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING NM AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z. READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Since we're 48 hours out from the onset, I'll go with 4-8" on my first call south of I-70 down to Morgantown, and 2-6" between Butler and I-70. South of Morgantown and you're looking at 8-12" probably, definitely more into the mountains to the East. I can easily see these totals moving in either direction. Move your I-70 line to I-80 and I'd agree. I-80 to I-70 4"-8", East of Plum down through Irwin 10", Somerset and points south and east you get pounded(Can you say a foot of fresh powder at Seven Springs)) DC I feel a historic bust coming, 6-10" in Metro DC, Hagerstown to the PA line the sweet spot 18'+. When I hear the words "historic" being thrown around, kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro will be huge ? I don't think so. It has been all over the board. All it will be is another data point to compare. I dont think it is the leader to follow for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I like the trends so far. We are now 2 days out and if we can wobble another 50 miles north over the next 5 or 6 models we should get into some higher totals.. I still remember Jan 1996 where we went from 2-4 to 3-6 to 4-8 and then 10-20 final over the last 2 days. Not saying it will happen but just saying it has happened and can happen. I have learned my lesson over the years and you can not be jealous of someone else. If DC gets 20 inches..so be it. I care what we get. If I get 4-6 I will enjoy it. Somebody will always get more. When we got our last 16 inch snowfall did I care that DC and Philly had 25? No. Let's keep this north trend going and get what we get. WE all know the drill. If it was Christmas week and we were getting 2-4 we would be happy but now some people aren't because it isn't 20. We will get our foot and usually when we do it is a surprise. Maybe this will be that storm. The Detour sign is fighting for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Man.. GFS Ensembles seem to be mostly fringe jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 TWC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Considering that this timing is exactly the same as feb '10.... Anyone have the wed models from then? Were they still this iffy? Doesnt mean anything concrete, but curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS are terrible for anyone north of border especially western areas. GEFS has the low going due east at OBX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I said yesterday that I thought the Euro would come back north a little and we'd end up with something in between the Euro and the GFS. I said probably a 1-3 or 2-4 in Allegheny County. I'm still thinking that as of now. Local mets seem to be going with that as well. I'll say 2-4. I don't think the models are going to move much more from here on out, now that the storm is sampled, but with the tight gradient, even a slight shift could make the difference between getting next to nothing and possibly getting warning criteria snow. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Considering that this timing is exactly the same as feb '10.... Anyone have the wed models from then? Were they still this iffy? Doesnt mean anything concrete, but curious I was here then and yes very similar, we were on the NW cusp of things and then about a day out the 1' line kept creeping towards us The DC boards were all a buzz with words "Historic" being thrown around. If this was tomorrow afternoon, I'd be more confident. I'll wait till the 0z runs with new data ingested in them including fresh soundings to either get real excited or admit I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Considering that this timing is exactly the same as feb '10.... Anyone have the wed models from then? Were they still this iffy? Doesnt mean anything concrete, but curious No. I mean I think for a week it basically showed us getting a foot plus of snow, except maybe a run or two it drifted south and gave us 3-6 inches (and pgh rants cancelled the storm lol), but then immediately went back to a crushing hit. The reason people remember uncertainty is because the local mets kept calling for 3-6 up until the start of the event, even at 6pm that night when we already had 4 inches. We knew, and the nws knew that it was going to be huge as nws I think put out 8-16 that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't think the models are going to move much more from here on out, now that the storm is sampled, but with the tight gradient, even a slight shift could make the difference between getting next to nothing and possibly getting warning criteria snow. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Way to go out on a limb and contradict yourself. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Way to go out on a limb and contradict yourself. ;-)Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see anything contradictory in my statement. Just giving my opinions, like everyone else here, including you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see anything contradictory in my statement. Just giving my opinions, like everyone else here, including you. I was being sarcastic and having fun with you, it's weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 EURO looks to fall in line with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 BigJoeBastardi day 2-4 modeling notoriously too far e on east coast. So my forecast is blend of 3 similar storms, all in el nino years btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The reason the storm doesn't come up the coast A transfer is taking place. The system looses it's moxie and finds the next wave traveling up the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nothing at all on the EURO for Pgh area Sharp edge is about 20-30 miles to your southeast. Basically the NW tip of Garrett County MD is at 1" qpf and it starts going down FAST going NW from there. that count to the NW of Garrett goes from 1" along its southeat tip to only .1 on the nw side. The trend south of the primary and earlier transfer to a secondary along the GA/SC coast instead of further north means the WAA thump probably cuts off before doing much into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Indeed I think the Euro is faster. It essentially just slides south and almost due east. It cuts back on QPF quite a bit even for the main areas of precip. Like with most of the GFS Ensemble members, almost all of them have very little around the mason-dixon line in SW Pa. I'll hang in through 12Z tomorrow; the recent Euro isn't exactly encouraging, would nearly mean a drop of all WSW from our area (meaning any more movement and this could become a WWA event at best). For those wanting to see, this is the Euro snow map from the MA forum (sorry it cuts off everyone to the north, but as you can see there isn't much to show that direction): https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2016/01/ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_21.png&w=1484 Greene county would go from 0" to 6 inches W to E, Monongalia in WV would go from 2" to 12" W to E. That looks all too familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like the models are all in agreement now of the over all general setup for this storm and unfortunately it leaves us on the outside looking in. Possibility remains that a 50-100 mile north or south jog of the precip shield could happen and given the tight gradient will make a big difference for folks on either side of it. I doubt what was printed today is exactly what will verify. Today's runs have the low going NE rather than hugging the coast and stalling out further west so we get nothing form the CCB. There still a shot at a modest snow fall (4-8) region wide, but the foot + is probably off the table now. I think there is a better chance we get nothing though given the GEFS are all SE too. Just gotta face this is not our storm. It makes it hard to swallow knowing its going to be a historic blizzard for some locations and we a couple counties away from something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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