jaxjagman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The weeklies look cold towards the 1st week of Dec,other than that they look more or less seasonable.That's about all i can say right now.I haven't been feeling to hot the last past week and probably shouldn't even be posting anything.I got a double hernia and going under the knife Thursday.Needless to say the meds they got me on my brain feels like scrambled eggs right now from the pain killers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The weeklies look cold towards the 1st week of Dec,other than that they look more or less seasonable.That's about all i can say right now.I haven't been feeling to hot the last past week and probably shouldn't even be posting anything.I got a double hernia and going under the knife Thursday.Needless to say the meds they got me on my brain feels like scrambled eggs right now from the pain killers. Best of luck on your surgery, Jax (aka WarEagle)! I hope you make a quick recovery, Sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Best of luck on your surgery, Jax (aka WarEagle)! I hope you make a quick recovery, Sir! Thanks KVSKELTON Next week still looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Looking like an active week next week.Both the Euro and GFS are showing a negative tilted trough,just timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Ensembles are hinting at a late month pattern change. The NAO and AO are going towards negative and the PNA is heading into the positive in the long range. This could make for good times in early December if that actually comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Next week could feature some good rains in the area. System is slower moving than that previous one. Winds look a bit unidirectional for severe here, but maybe again up north low-top near the WF. That system does usher in a cooler pattern for Thanksgiving. Weeks 3-4 look to return to the classic El Nino pattern mild up north. Seasonable temps around here could be the sum of cloudy days and mild nights. I'm not seeing any big cold yet. Hope I'm wrong. Ready to ski, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro is still faster than the GFS and drops the vort SE more than the GFS although the GFS made a baby step in that direction.The Euro shows some decent winds especially the plateau on east.The GFS though was much better for Middle Tn,i didnt see the cap it's been showing,better PW's and convection but i hope it's catching onto the the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro got even better,gust map is 45-50 kts.for the WHOLE Valley.75kts around Conte.Best pw's 1.8" western Valley.Sweet !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 GEFS has a major pattern change coming toward the end of month It looks similar to last November. The ridge in the west grows and a trough drops into the U.S. Widespread cold anomalies spread across the country. I'm not sure if this pattern change would be long lasting or not. My guess is that it wouldn't last long and we would revert back into a warmer pattern in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 It has been rough going this month with the computer models. Even the normally reliable (and once stellar performer) ECMWF series has vacillated wildly over the past several days. Friday at 12z the European group was showing a shocking cold turn with massive blocking in the -EPO and -NAO positions, with a -AO signal across northernmost Canada by Nov 28. Today, the same scheme and its ensemble package was decidedly milder with no apparent high-latitude blocking by the end of the month. Numerical weather prediction miscues aside, I have come to the conclusion that the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods will have some decent shots of colder air. But nothing extreme, and likely tied to ejections of storms from northern Mexico through the Gulf Coast and along the Eastern Seaboard. The NAEFS ensemble is actually pretty close to my analog-derived forecast, which indicates that it may be tough for the polar regimes (maybe even a pinch of Arctic influence) to get into the Interstate 95 corridor. But something to consider before you believe all of the nonsense floating around with respect to El Nino influence. Yes, the signature is bringing life to the subtropical jet stream that keeps reforming over Mexico into the Gulf Coast. This is the reason why I think we will have a prominent storm threat November 21 - 24 and again around Thanksgiving, taking that southern + eastern track scenario. I still think the period from December 7 through January 10 will be quite mild overall in the U.S., largely due to the abundance of very warm anomalies in the oceanic profiles surrounding North America. But if you look at modeled forecasts for the +ENSO signal (rapid, steady weakening), and the cooling noted of the equatorial waters off of Ecuador, then the analog interpretations of a rough cold/snowy January 10 - March 20 time frame make sense. So look out for a prominent storm threat for your Thanksgiving holiday travel and "Black Friday" shopping. But you should be largely safe from extremely cold air for another month and a half in the lower 48 states.Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE onSaturday, November 14, 2015 at 8:00 P.M. CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Totals from the next system off the 0z GFS tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I can agree with Cosgrove on a Thanksgiving storm. Seems more years than not it happens. Ditto for the other one he writes about in this active pattern. One thing has a 100% probability: Black Friday I will be sleeping in my nice warm bed! Save it for Small Business Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Man, the GFS is doing it's dead level best to deliver the arctic to us all. Has snow in north Florida behind a mega cold front it brings though in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Wild look the GFS is throwing out with a +PNA/-EPO heading into Dec.GFS has a stronger system Sat with better moisture.Looks like rain for us and possibly a mix/and or flurries at the end.Better chance towards the plat on east if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 That +PNA has a conveyor of arctic highs rolling into the lower 48 with the pipeline of storms rolling across the south. We'll see if it actually happens and if the cold and moisture can connect. In the meantime, the GFS shows pretty widespread snow showers and flurries working through the valley on Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 How many posts/stories that start with "The GFS is showing" have a happy ending? If this two week colder period had been shifted back a week in November then there would be some serious cliff diving over the comparison to 1997...ENSO climo should take over for the bulk of December...I think we will have to wait patiently to see if we get any nice surprises in snow season here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Euro concurs with Southern Apps mountain snow showers above 3,000 FT Sunday, maybe even the Plateau if snow levels get down toward 2,000 FT. Nothing for lower elevations on the Euro. Still, the Upper Plateau may find a way. Now it looks mild over Thanksgiving break, a huge GFS flip flop. Frankly we (lower elevations) have a better chance of severe weather before snow. Severe over Thanksgiving break would be convenient for chasing. GFS 11-15 day is going nuts over a typhoon that has yet to form. Tropical Storm In-fa is approaching the Philippines. It is forecast to become a typhoon (cat 3 hurricane), miss the Phils, and then crap out as a tropical storm east of Japan. GFS blows it up and recurves by Japan as a big typhoon, pumping up the AK ridge. Wrong! Euro and CFS weeklies are both warming up after the post-Thanksgiving cold front. December looks warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I agree, but December is suppose to be warm. It's an annual tradition now. Well, that and it follows the strong Nino tendencies. I am much more interested in what comes mid Jan- March 1. I don't really see the comparisons to 1997 and think it will be fascinating to watch the winter play out. Oh yeah........Warm December's are good for winter golf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'd actually say the GFS did pretty well with the current look. 2 weeks ago it showed a big storm then a cool down coming in the 18th-22nd time frame with some snow flurries or snow showers and pretty much kept that look for the time frame. Here we are and the cold shot is a sure thing with the snow flurries likely. So I'd give it an A for calling this. As for December being typical Nino....is that typical Nino 1986? Typical Nino 1991? Typical Nino 1997? Typical Nino 2009? Because in my records and memory, the sensible weather was very different for each of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Good discussion today, everyone. I agree, John. The GFS did well this time. But Mr. Bob also makes a humerous point as a counter balance. For anyone to jump in and answer or discuss...I think the GFS did well with this cold snap as John stated. However, is the next cold snap(after that) dependent just on the cyclone recurving? Or is the GFS sniffing something else out(other than the cyclone) that is a mechanism for cold or just sniffing glue? :-) The GFS CPC teleconnections are terrible...with maybe a mild PNA ridge. Otherwise, ugly. How are the long range Euro forecasts looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Good discussion today, everyone. I agree, John. The GFS did well this time. But Mr. Bob also makes a humerous point as a counter balance. For anyone to jump in and answer or discuss...I think the GFS did well with this cold snap as John stated. However, is the next cold snap(after that) dependent just on the cyclone recurving? Or is the GFS sniffing something else out(other than the cyclone) that is a mechanism for cold or just sniffing glue? :-) The GFS CPC teleconnections are terrible...with maybe a mild PNA ridge. Otherwise, ugly. How are the long range Euro forecasts looking? Weeklies show everything bottled up in Canada.Nothing much to see TBH.PV still looks like a wrecking ball.QBO for Oct was the highest ever for that month. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Weeklies show everything bottled up in Canada.Nothing much to see TBH.PV still looks like a wrecking ball.QBO for Oct was the highest ever for that month. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Basically, a stable pattern as Mr. Bob mentioned in an earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'd actually say the GFS did pretty well with the current look. 2 weeks ago it showed a big storm then a cool down coming in the 18th-22nd time frame with some snow flurries or snow showers and pretty much kept that look for the time frame. Here we are and the cold shot is a sure thing with the snow flurries likely. So I'd give it an A for calling this. As for December being typical Nino....is that typical Nino 1986? Typical Nino 1991? Typical Nino 1997? Typical Nino 2009? Because in my records and memory, the sensible weather was very different for each of them. Not to belabor this point, but the GFS has so many different solutions in its operational runs, that I don't generally give it any grade for sniffing things out. I do give it credit leading into 2014 for the extreme cold that it did advertise in the 11-15 (so I am not totally biased) but the Euro has been pretty much on track with this pattern from the get go. The biggest thing I worry about this year is the lack of Arctic air in the east so that even the wedgiest of wedges will not lead to anything decent in the east this year. We are likely going to be normal-ish in the south this year, not torch. But without Arctic air, it will be hard to make magic happen. I think sometimes the biggest problem we have with these analogs is bounding things by the arbitrary month by month measurements. As I said earlier, if this cold snap as back 5-10 days, then "November" is cold and people are running around honking 97-98 even more than before. No two winters will ever be alike...I get that wholeheartedly...But there is some validity to comparing full well knowing the end result will not be exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Previously the GFS had the cold lasting from this weekend through Thanksgiving. Now looks like Thanksgiving and next weekend will be much warmer than normal. The GFS is a waste of taxpayer money. We should outsource to the ECMWF and focus on hi-res severe wx models for the safety of the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 November 16 update from Judah Cohen. A good read. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 November 16 update from Judah Cohen. A good read. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Love this quote.... " It remains challenging to anticipate how the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather." Sums things up well....certainly the spread of forecasts among everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Love this quote...." It remains challenging to anticipate how the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather." Sums things up well....certainly the spread of forecasts among everyone. So true! The initial summary would seem to be optimistic. Then, one reads on and...QBO favors a strong vortex...he discounts their own model showing a weakening vortex in December(admirable he would admit that)...and IMO seemed to punt to mid January or later for the East Coast. He pushes the envelope(of thinking) as he self-proclaimed. Thought it was a decent write-up. I think he sees a vortex that is just locked in place and is going to take a lot to move it. Fits Nino climo very well in terms of the progression of the cold into the East favoring late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Not to belabor this point, but the GFS has so many different solutions in its operational runs, that I don't generally give it any grade for sniffing things out. I do give it credit leading into 2014 for the extreme cold that it did advertise in the 11-15 (so I am not totally biased) but the Euro has been pretty much on track with this pattern from the get go. The biggest thing I worry about this year is the lack of Arctic air in the east so that even the wedgiest of wedges will not lead to anything decent in the east this year. We are likely going to be normal-ish in the south this year, not torch. But without Arctic air, it will be hard to make magic happen. I think sometimes the biggest problem we have with these analogs is bounding things by the arbitrary month by month measurements. As I said earlier, if this cold snap as back 5-10 days, then "November" is cold and people are running around honking 97-98 even more than before. No two winters will ever be alike...I get that wholeheartedly...But there is some validity to comparing full well knowing the end result will not be exactly the same. I've been saying something similar over on the SE side. It doesnt matter how many damming highs you get if canada is torching. Of course, they end up claiming you're cancelling winter early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Canada torching hasn't got a ton to do with cold/snowy weather here. 2009-10 is a perfect example. We may not get to -10 when Canada torches but cold enough for snow/wintery weather is easily obtainable. Actually our winter seems to be in trouble when Canada is colder than normal, as it often means the cold is bottled up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Our sensible weather this November is actually very similar to 2009. Similar temperatures so far and both were somewhat dry, though this year is a bit wetter than 2009 was to this point. 1997 had a cool November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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