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rbowman

August 21, 2017 (was "2 Years From Today!")

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Clayton, GA and Black Rock Mtn SP might be a good view, though not right on the center line. Parts of the Cumberland Plateau in Tenn would offer nice views. Both locations might avoid Great Smoky Mountain NP crowds. Still, both may be quite busy too.

May plan A is to head northeast for Chatty, perhaps finding a ridge but I do not see a need for a high mountain view. Wide sky is favored, and just high enough to maybe see the shadow move. Few clouds or better I will stick with Plan A so it can be a family event. Scattered clouds becomes a gamble if one covers the sun/moon those 2 minutes.

Plan B is to head to points north and west the day before if bad weather is forecast. Silly me never got around to booking motels a year ahead, as I promised myself in this very thread, and the clock is running out. However we have some options within an hour of the path all the way back to the KC metro.

Plan C is 2024, lol! That one is in April when weather is more fickle; so, it would be nice to avoid any unforced errors this year. Maybe I should be planning more for such a rare event, but for now I'm treating it like storm chase. Plan, but don't over analyze if 30 minutes from the path.

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4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Clayton, GA and Black Rock Mtn SP might be a good view, though not right on the center line. Parts of the Cumberland Plateau in Tenn would offer nice views. Both locations might avoid Great Smoky Mountain NP crowds. Still, both may be quite busy too.

May plan A is to head northeast for Chatty, perhaps finding a ridge but I do not see a need for a high mountain view. Wide sky is favored, and just high enough to maybe see the shadow move. Few clouds or better I will stick with Plan A so it can be a family event. Scattered clouds becomes a gamble if one covers the sun/moon those 2 minutes.

Plan B is to head to points north and west the day before if bad weather is forecast. Silly me never got around to booking motels a year ahead, as I promised myself in this very thread, and the clock is running out. However we have some options within an hour of the path all the way back to the KC metro.

Plan C is 2024, lol! That one is in April when weather is more fickle; so, it would be nice to avoid any unforced errors this year. Maybe I should be planning more for such a rare event, but for now I'm treating it like storm chase. Plan, but don't over analyze if 30 minutes from the path.

My options are less favorable.  I need to hope the weather pans out in GA/SC. 

 

Any other suggestions for someone coming from west Atlanta?

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32 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Hopefully no MCS riding down from KC to South Carolina!

Wouldn't that just suck.  I'm so pumped for the event.  I'm trying to not think about how much can go wrong. 

 

I guess best case is a 595dm death ridge centered right over us?

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Me and a buddy plan on riding down 411 from Sevierville that morning, and make a day of it.  If rain is in the forecast, I don't mind taking a longer road trip, if needed. 

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Long time lurker, dont have much to add on weather but I am so stoked about this, bought my welding goggles 4 years ago haha. Saw a partial solar eclipse in 94, still remember it vividly to this day!

 

My wife and I just bought our first house in Louisville TN. We just happen to be right on the edge of totality. According to http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/TSE_2017_GoogleMapFull.html we will receive 50 seconds of total eclipse. Eclipse starts at 1:04 for us, totality at 2:34, and ends at nearly 4

 

I have plenty of room in our yard for folks if they are interested! We have 180 degrees of open sky, so no issues as long as the clouds work with us

Parking would be a pain, but we can figure something out.  

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Thank you Knoxtron. Might have to take 50 seconds of totality if the entire countryside is a mess. Plan is to get near 2 minutes; assume the exact center will be a total zoo (like OKC during a tornado). However I'm getting nervous about the following anywhere in totality: traffic, full parking lots, businesses blocking off lots, confused law enforcement, people with shotguns sitting on their lawn, and dueling banjos. We'll see it might turn out pretty easy and simple.

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Euro weeklies now reach Eclipse Week, but it's week 6. Verbatim shows a broad ridge east of the Mississippi River the prior week. Tries to shift the ridge north during the week of Aug 21, which would open us up to easterly flow underneath - not good. Week 6 I'm not too worried yet.

First let's see if this week 2-4 flip to hot is real and lasts another run. Then we can worry about the Great American Eclipse later.

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I'm borrowing my in-laws' camper and setting up on Watt's Bar Lake near Spring City on Friday the 18th.  I'm hoping for good weather, but will move from "home base" on the 21st if there is a considerable chance of cloudiness.  Hoping the next weeklies gives us some preliminary ideas.

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On 7/19/2017 at 2:57 PM, EastKnox said:

I'm borrowing my in-laws' camper and setting up on Watt's Bar Lake near Spring City on Friday the 18th.  I'm hoping for good weather, but will move from "home base" on the 21st if there is a considerable chance of cloudiness.  Hoping the next weeklies gives us some preliminary ideas.

This the only time I've ever wished for a huge death ridge to setup over the SE. 

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Weeklies are out, and no clear ridge signal is noted for the US Southeast. If dews are above 70 TCu will form under a ridge anyway. Therefore, I am now rooting for a clean FROPA. Risk of post-frontal strato-cu is near zero in August. How is clear blue and 82/52?

Plan to position early in the day, whether it is far away or here in East Tenn. Will bring water, food, eclipse glasses, shadowbox, sunscreen, a book, playing cards and perhaps a board game. It will be like waiting on the dry line, yet knowing the forecast for certain. 

No plans to photograph or bring special equipment. Blogs (probably rightly so) recommend just watching for total solar eclipse virgins. Media and professionals will have images later. Nobody will be able to capture the awe of it anyway.

Big risk is losing costly seconds fumbling around with just a 2 to 2:30 minute event. Plus you'll remember better not photographing or tinkering. Tornadoes I remember in my head the best are ones I did not photograph. I also remember an aurora 25 years ago like it was yesterday - no photos. With that in mind, I will not attempt photography.

Probably use my shadowbox or punched hole device for most of the partial stages. Break out my eclipse glasses for the diamond ring stages including a few minutes before and after totality. Plan to just watch totality with no special equipment. Corona should be the main show but apparently the horizons are quite interesting too. Look all over.

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Starting to get into the ensembles range but much to me depends on what the tropics do in this time frame and where the MJO is.Right now to me looks like the heights are rising into Mongolia and China long range,this would be good news to me with a trough into the east mid month followed by some sort of ridge possibly,but its kinda moot right now,its the GEFS

GEFS Model   Tropical Tidbits.png

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I'm going to try to get to the top of the Cherohala Skyway. It's at 5400 ft, so heat won't be an issue, but cloud cover might be. There are several balds in the area that would make great vantage points. 

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21 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

I'm going to try to get to the top of the Cherohala Skyway. It's at 5400 ft, so heat won't be an issue, but cloud cover might be. There are several balds in the area that would make great vantage points. 

That was originally my plan as well, but I feared that I might find myself in a traffic jam trying to get to one of those spots, so I opted for a location that I could anchor down over the weekend and be waiting on Monday.

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On 7/21/2017 at 0:01 PM, nrgjeff said:

Weeklies are out, and no clear ridge signal is noted for the US Southeast. If dews are above 70 TCu will form under a ridge anyway. Therefore, I am now rooting for a clean FROPA. Risk of post-frontal strato-cu is near zero in August. How is clear blue and 82/52?

Plan to position early in the day, whether it is far away or here in East Tenn. Will bring water, food, eclipse glasses, shadowbox, sunscreen, a book, playing cards and perhaps a board game. It will be like waiting on the dry line, yet knowing the forecast for certain. 

No plans to photograph or bring special equipment. Blogs (probably rightly so) recommend just watching for total solar eclipse virgins. Media and professionals will have images later. Nobody will be able to capture the awe of it anyway.

Big risk is losing costly seconds fumbling around with just a 2 to 2:30 minute event. Plus you'll remember better not photographing or tinkering. Tornadoes I remember in my head the best are ones I did not photograph. I also remember an aurora 25 years ago like it was yesterday - no photos. With that in mind, I will not attempt photography.

Probably use my shadowbox or punched hole device for most of the partial stages. Break out my eclipse glasses for the diamond ring stages including a few minutes before and after totality. Plan to just watch totality with no special equipment. Corona should be the main show but apparently the horizons are quite interesting too. Look all over.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

 

Looks like a strong CCKW upcoming,gonna dampen our spirits?

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Should not be a problem in August. That chart would hurt for the April 2024 eclipse, lol. In August the chart could mean moisture coming in from the Gulf, not good but not a wash-out. It could also turn out to be northwest flow at shorter summer wavelengths (MJO phase). Avoid the front day and post-frontal would be great. Third, how about a tropical system up the East Coast? We would have dry stable clear air over this way. At any rate, verbatim, does not look like a monster ridge. OK In August as we have other paths to fair skies.

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On 7/26/2017 at 11:27 AM, nrgjeff said:

Should not be a problem in August. That chart would hurt for the April 2024 eclipse, lol. In August the chart could mean moisture coming in from the Gulf, not good but not a wash-out. It could also turn out to be northwest flow at shorter summer wavelengths (MJO phase). Avoid the front day and post-frontal would be great. Third, how about a tropical system up the East Coast? We would have dry stable clear air over this way. At any rate, verbatim, does not look like a monster ridge. OK In August as we have other paths to fair skies.b

GEFS is now is now in the range today,long range though looking at Asia.Maybe a clean FRONTPA right now as you mentioned above,but right now looks to be extended into the Korea Bay which would be N of the Valley which would possibly put us in a more S/SW flow.Might not be bad though with more diurnal driven late afternoons stuff.To early to tell but if that CCKW kicks off something and that makes it into the GOM,we'll be inundated with clouds possibly if it does

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On 7/23/2017 at 1:39 PM, dwagner88 said:

I'm going to try to get to the top of the Cherohala Skyway. It's at 5400 ft, so heat won't be an issue, but cloud cover might be. There are several balds in the area that would make great vantage points. 

Two people on the same sub-forum with the exact same idea, this doesn't look good. Luckily enough my dad booked a room back in April just before rooms had become unattainable so we won't be driving in. My dad and I are going to try to get up there before sunrise, that is assuming weather conditions are favorable. From what I read as long as all four wheels are off the skyway it is legal parking wise. "Where to Park: There is no official parking at this spot, but the Skyway rules are the same as any other national park property: get all four tires off the Skyway and you’re fine" Here is a guide for anyone interested. http://www.southeasterntraveler.com/travel-guide-solar-eclipse/tennessee/cherohala-skyway/

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My first inclination was to go to Hooper Bald on the Skyway.  I'm afraid the whole area will be a parking lot though so I'm keeping the kids at home to watch it from west Knoxville.  That is a nightmare I'd like to avoid.

Ideally, if I could rationalize the time off work and could take the family backpacking, Bob Stratton Bald would be awesome.  Get to the Wolf Laurel trail head 2 days before and settle in.  Oh well, it'll be interesting to find out just how bad the traffic gets while I swill cold beers in the backyard.

 

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Need to avoid a super-typhoon related forecast debacle and thermonuclear war on the Korean Peninsula. Think that might mess up initialization? 

On 7/28/2017 at 10:23 PM, jaxjagman said:

GEFS is now is now in the range today,long range though looking at Asia. Maybe a clean FRONTPA right now as you mentioned above,but right now looks to be extended into the Korea Bay which would be N of the Valley which would possibly put us in a more S/SW flow.Might not be bad though with more diurnal driven late afternoons stuff. To early to tell but if that CCKW kicks off something and that makes it into the GOM,we'll be inundated with clouds possibly if it does

Seriously Super Typhoon Noru is hanging out south of Japan. Hopefully the Kelvin wave will stall and the CFS is wrong. Current regime is pretty good.

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On 7/31/2017 at 0:17 PM, nrgjeff said:

Need to avoid a super-typhoon related forecast debacle and thermonuclear war on the Korean Peninsula. Think that might mess up initialization? 

Seriously Super Typhoon Noru is hanging out south of Japan. Hopefully the Kelvin wave will stall and the CFS is wrong. Current regime is pretty good.

Hope you're right.Still looks to me though we could be in a more S/SW flow,maybe more diurnal?.Not sure of the tropics but by the looks the CCKW in the GOM and or Caribbean seems possible before hand

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Euro today shows a system getting into the Yellow Sea,Korea, possibly the Sea of Japan.There's going to be a ridge in the SW.Pulling for Jeffs forecast ,by the looks on how fast the pattern moves could very well be the 22nd

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