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August 1st-7th Severe Weather Threat


HillsdaleMIWeather

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0200 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL WI...WRN/SRN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021900Z - 022100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A

S/SEWD-PROGRESSING SQUALL LINE...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT

TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR

TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS EXHIBIT WINDS VEERING TO THE

N/NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS PRESSURE

RISES UPWARDS OF 1 MB/HR. THIS LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IS LIKELY A

MANIFESTATION OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPINGING UPON THE

REGION FROM THE NW. THUS...AS SFC CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED AND

MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED...CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE

IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN/CNTRL WI EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MI.

INDEED...A DEVELOPING CU FIELD OVER WI PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE

INITIAL REGION FOR INITIATION...WITH CONVECTION INCREASING

DOWNSTREAM INTO MI...LARGELY FOCUSED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM

EARLIER CONVECTION.

18Z RAOBS FROM GRB/DVN ILLUSTRATE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER

THE REGION. IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE...THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE

VERTICAL ACCELERATION IN THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE...SUGGESTING LARGE

HAIL SHOULD BE A THREAT WITH INITIAL QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS. AS

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE OCCURS HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY

THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...AIDED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL

FLOW OF 40-50 KTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING. FURTHERMORE...OBSERVED

PROFILES/MESOANALYSIS DISPLAY SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND EFFECTIVE

SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 M2/S2...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A

TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. AS SUCH...WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY WITHIN

THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

 

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