CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Enhanced with large 30% wind risk, 30% hatched hail risk. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0751 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MN...NRN/CNTRL WI...UPPERPENINSULA OF MI...NRN LOWER MICONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 021251Z - 021515ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVING WITHIN A CORRIDORFROM CNTRL MN INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ISOLATED SVRPOTENTIAL. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENTLY EXPECTED...THERE ISSOME CONCERN THAT A GREATER SVR RISK COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING --DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- AND THIS MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE ACROSSA PART OF THE REGION.DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARYEXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER W-CNTRL MN TO LOW PRESSUREN OF EAU...WITH THE SAME BOUNDARY ARCING EWD/SEWD INTO WRN LOWER MI.CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION BEING FED BY UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE THENOCTURNALLY COOLED PBL ARE ONGOING N OF THE BOUNDARY IN A WAAREGIME. RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED IN CONJUNCTIONWITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE REGION AND IN ADVANCE OF ASHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ESE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIEPROVINCES PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY.THE 12Z RAOBS AT MPX AND ABR SAMPLED AN EML PLUME WITH H7-H5 LAPSERATES AROUND 8 C/KM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED OVER THEUPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELYRICHER PBL MOISTURE S OF THE SFC BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED WITHLOWER/MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD TOTHE E OF THE WI SFC CYCLONE. THIS WILL ESTABLISH AN INCREASE INSFC-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AS AREASOF INSOLATION ENCOURAGE SFC HEATING. AS SUCH...ONGOING CONVECTIONMAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL TSTMDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ALREADY-PRESENT FORCING FORASCENT MARKED BY 2-HOURLY SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 1.5-2 MB ACROSSTHE REGION. GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS AND12Z RAOBS...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH25-40-KT WLYS AROUND H85 FACILITATING FAST-MOVING COLD POOLS WITHSVR-WIND POTENTIAL. SVR-WIND POTENTIAL ASIDE...THE STEEP LAPSERATES/MODERATE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHANY MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS.ULTIMATELY...CONFIDENCE IN UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND AGREATER-COVERAGE SVR RISK -- IN THE SHORT-TERM -- IS LIMITED...ASSTRONGER DCVA IS STILL DISPLACED UPSTREAM AT PRESENT.REGARDLESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THEMORNING HOURS. THE ONGOING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUGGESTSSOME POSSIBILITY IN WW ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLYBE THE CASE IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/BOWING SEGMENTWERE TO BECOME EVIDENT AND JUXTAPOSED WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR INCLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY...COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...LAT...LON 45018360 44238435 43978638 44048948 44679304 4528950545819531 46319405 46208824 45798520 45018360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 smells like morning debris with a garbage line in the afternoon last night's bust means i'm gonna bust looks p good for Wisconsinwx into N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 I'm shocked! Not a bad picture on the visible satellite (for once)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 I'm shocked! Not a bad picture on the visible satelitteYee, SEMI and SW Ontario might be in for some damaging wind action this afternoon and evening. Looks like I won't be barbecuing tonight.Sent from my GT-N8010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Severe T'storm Watch in effect for N. Lower MI until 5:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Golf ball sized hail reported with the lone cell in central MN. Pretty impressive for an early morning storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Hmm, nice pocket of 3500 cape already on the SPC mesoanalysis at 11AM just a hair to my south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 FWIW, none of the models are handling the storms over Lake MI / N. Lower MI very well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 looks like a spread the wealth type squall line event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 looks like a spread the wealth type squall line event It looking to be one of the better setup this season (with the lack of morning convection to **** things up and the fairly large area of strong daytime heating), as far as wdiespread severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Strong worded severe watch up for parts of central Ontario, including Manitoulin Island and Bruce/Grey counties. THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUED FOR: (For the next 4 hours, any Warnings, Watches, Advisories or Statements will be posted as comments to this post) .... A significant severe weather situation is possible beginning this afternoon and extending into this evening. A line of severe thunderstorms is currently crossing Northern Lower Michigan towards Lake Huron. Conditions will become increasingly favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms associated with this line. They will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain. Although this initial line may weaken somewhat a little later this afternoon, new strong thunderstorm development is highly likely in its wake. This watch will likely be extended southwards and eastwards throughout the afternoon as this dynamic thunderstorm situation develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Strong worded severe watch up for parts of central Ontario, including Manitoulin Island and Bruce/Grey counties.Nice, but do they usually have strong wording? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Nice, but do they usually have strong wording? No. I haven't seen wording like that for a severe watch since the Sept 5th, 2014 damaging wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Weed Trimmer would never over-hype the situation....never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Should get a pretty decent line through here this evening. Ideally would rather be farther north and have non negligible concern that it may be in a weakening phase by the time it gets here, but overall, looks like a fairly nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 The storms over Lake Huron appear to be in the form of a bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Been a while since we've seen a weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 No change on the SPC day 1 outlook for now, but I wouldn't be surprised if they go moderate risk at some point for wind if a MCS and cold pool does manage to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Should be a pretty fun day for many of us. Been awhile since we've seen a threat over this large of an area. Nice to see morning convection not being a big issue for once. Back this way we'll be on the western end of the squall line. Probably not as much of a wind threat, but hoping for a good thump nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Driving home from the farm in NW IL today...going to try and time this out as best as possible to stay ahead of the squall as I head southeast...and be home for the impact back home in b-brook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MICONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...VALID 021649Z - 021745ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI FOR SEVEREWIND GUSTS 55-70 MPH WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MULTIPLE SWATHSOF WIND DAMAGE.DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN EFFECTIVEWARM FRONT/OUTFLOW DRAPED FROM THE TRAILING PORTION OF STRONG STORMSOVER LAKE HURON WESTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MI. THE AIRMASS INVOF THEBOUNDARY AND TO THE S HAS DESTABILIZED MARKEDLY THE PAST FEW HOURSWITH AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND HEATING RESULTING INUPPER 70S TEMPS. THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW /50 KT AT 2-3KM AGL/ AT KAPX PRIOR TO QLCS PASSAGE WILL LEND SUPPORT FOR MOMENTUMTRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENEDSUFFICIENTLY. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS DURING THE PAST30-60 MINUTES IS YIELDING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINEWIND DAMAGE AND SWATHS OF 55-70 MPH WIND GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE PRIORTO THE QLCS MOVING OFF THE LAKE HURON COAST...SMITH.. 08/02/2015ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...LAT...LON 45368467 45348364 44338327 43978409 44058527 45368467 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Question for me in northern IL and northwest IN as it was yesterday is timing and will the likely squall line weaken with southward extent given possible loss of destabilization with time this evening. The 15z HRRR seems to show some weakening over northern IL while the 12z 4km NAM maintains intensity well into central IL and IN. Wonder if the strong southwest low level advection ahead of the squall line will slow the stabilization process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Starting to doubt whether any robust convection can develop any farther west than the 39/90/94 corridor in WI/IL....Really any meaningful height falls/mid-level cooling is confined to eastern WI into MI. I guess I'll see when I wake up this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Ready to bust in N and NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Woo... NW Ohio gets the slight risk today... the entire east half of Ohio gets the slight risk tomorrow. SW Ohio gets completely skipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 A line of verticle growth about 30 miles to my south visually here in NW IL...one looks to be getting a decent little tower on it Edit: pretty clumsy looking now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Question for me in northern IL and northwest IN as it was yesterday is timing and will the likely squall line weaken with southward extent given possible loss of destabilization with time this evening. The 15z HRRR seems to show some weakening over northern IL while the 12z 4km NAM maintains intensity well into central IL and IN. Wonder if the strong southwest low level advection ahead of the squall line will slow the stabilization process. That strong southwest flow is keeping the dewpoints relatively in check across the area at this time. NAM seems particularly overdone with dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 New watch will need to be issued soon for SEMI. Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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