mackerel_sky Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Umm cause TWC doesn't get to declare storms only NHC can do that and they haven't upgraded it from a disturbance yet since the plane didn't find a solid LLC.....I know TWC doesn't name anything but winter storms, but ever since I can recall, 39 mph was TS threshold , so it was at 40mph, so wondering why NHC didnt officially name it? Maybe they jumped on the common core math train!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I know TWC doesn't name anything but winter storms, but ever since I can recall, 39 mph was TS threshold , so it was at 40mph, so wondering why NHC didnt officially name it? Maybe they jumped on the common core math train!? It's because they (recon) need to find a closed sfc low as well for an upgrade to a TS....and they didn't. This applies to the Atlantic basin only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Recon still not finding a well defined low level of circulation.....1003 mb pressure so far is the lowest....it has a great sat presentation but when you get into it, its still got work to do. Plane making another pass right now but if they don't hit a true LLC I doubt we see this classified at 11....then again its gonna be onshore pretty soon so they might name it just to be able to throw the warnings since there is a really good chance it will be a storm by landfall..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Recon found a bit better center that pass and the thing looks to be hauling ass...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Bill and expects to release the advisory in the next 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yay, we have Bill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Remember when the Atlantic basin used to light up like this? Yeah, me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Remember when the Atlantic basin used to light up like this? Yeah, me either. not sure whats happened to the Atlantic Basin, granted this year is an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 It's going to take a tropical system to get us out of this drought ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 We are going to be sorely disapointed if we are counting on a tropical system to save us from a drought. Impacts from these are rare these days in the upstate, well, other than subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 WxSouth said a tropical system could form or affect someone in the SE, in between heatwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Wright-Weather.com @MikeWDross 5m5 minutes ago I give this area of convection near the NC Coast a 60% chance of (Sub)Tropical development a it moves NE @JimCantore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 12, 2015 Author Share Posted July 12, 2015 Another invest off the coast of NC! Yawn fest ! El Niño FTL ! Subtropical, hybrid garbage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 The Hi Res Nam models had this getting to 995ish yesterday at best it will be a name waster for a subtropical system and they most likely wont name it even if it looks good since I doubt they waste a recon on it unless models suggest it will threaten Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Claudette 1230 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on the low pressure system east of the United States mid-Atlantic coast. 1. Satellite pictures indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located about 450 miles east- northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to become better organized. Satellite wind data also indicate that the low's circulation is well defined, with winds of tropical storm force. Based on these data, advisories on a tropical storm will be issued within the next hour. The low is expected to accelerate northeastward during the next day or two, away from the U.S. coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Damn wasting a name but its look halfway decent but the shear is about to make it a naked swirl unless it speeds up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Models flirting with a storm off the Carolinas around the end of July.....GFS kinda tried to have it yesterday and the Euro has it today...both had it roughly 10 days from now...and the track looks more like a near miss or eastern NC kinda track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Interesting read. https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2015/07/20/cyclones-and-warnings-and-names-oh-my/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Interesting read. https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2015/07/20/cyclones-and-warnings-and-names-oh-my/ Very good idea, why not be more aggressive with putting it out there that it MAY happen, at least do it to the point that the local media etc is putting the word out or there is a scrawl across the bottom of screens in the affected area informing them a TC may be forming that could impact them. I would only do it though when its at least 60-80% likely within 48 hrs and modeled to make landfall or directly effect the coast with winds rain etc above TS force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I fail to see why a TS Watch couldn't be issued even for lack of an existing TS. Severe Thunderstorm Watches are issued by the SPC (similar to the NHC) often in advance of development. Would seem to be a consistent policy to allow for the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Crown Weather Services 8 mins · Wednesday 7/22/2015 - 8:35 am ET/7:35 am CT: *** Tropical Storm Danny May Form Along The US Southeast Coast Between Sunday & Wednesday Of Next Week *** A frontal boundary will gradually push offshore of the US Southeast coast over the next 2 to 3 days. This frontal boundary is then forecast to become nearly stationary along the US Southeast Coast this weekend into next week. As this happens, the upper level trough of low pressure associated with this front will lift out leaving behind a piece of energy near Florida by this weekend and early next week. This type of setup is often times called a trough split scenario where a piece of the trough splits off and can many times lead to the development of a tropical cyclone. I think there is a chance that we will see the formation of Tropical Storm Danny near the US Southeast Coast between Sunday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I think business could really pick up in August with as warm as it had been this summer. The Atlantic has to be getting ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I think business could really pick up in August with as warm as it had been this summer. The Atlantic has to be getting ripe. El Niño. Wind shear. Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 Game set match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago ECMWF keeps trying day 7-10 to develop TC.I think its sniffing out the pattern that can produce it. Last 4 192 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 Yeah! A tropical something, off the Carolinas, moving out to sea! That subsidence , will go great with our all summer long, NW flow! Can't wait to get even drier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Our local met mentioned this today and said to keep an eye out by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Easy come, easy go... ILM this morning: MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH ANY TROPICAL ENTITYDEVELOPING WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ASWELL. NHC HAS REMOVED ANY MENTION WITH THE LATEST TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Crown Weather Services 13 mins · Sunday 8/2/2015 - 6:25 pm ET/5:25 pm CT: I am closely monitoring the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening where I think we have a organizing and strengthening low pressure system that looks to me to be a classifiable tropical cyclone. This includes it has a well defined closed circulation, barometric pressures have fallen to about 1008 millibars and there are wind gusts to 40 mph along the west coast of Florida and across the Big Bend area of Florida. The latest information can be read at http://crownweather.com/…/important-late-sunday-afternoon-…/ . Additionally, I am monitoring things extremely closely and will have further updates this evening as conditions warrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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