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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion


mackerel_sky

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Umm cause TWC doesn't get to declare storms only NHC can do that and they haven't upgraded it from a disturbance yet since the plane didn't find a solid LLC.....

I know TWC doesn't name anything but winter storms, but ever since I can recall, 39 mph was TS threshold , so it was at 40mph, so wondering why NHC didnt officially name it? Maybe they jumped on the common core math train!?
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I know TWC doesn't name anything but winter storms, but ever since I can recall, 39 mph was TS threshold , so it was at 40mph, so wondering why NHC didnt officially name it? Maybe they jumped on the common core math train!?

 

It's because they (recon) need to find a closed sfc low as well for an upgrade to a TS....and they didn't. This applies to the Atlantic basin only.    

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Recon still not finding a well defined low level of circulation.....1003 mb pressure so far is the lowest....it has a great sat presentation but when you get into it, its still got work to do. Plane making another pass right now but if they don't hit a true LLC I doubt we see this classified at 11....then again its gonna be onshore pretty soon so they might name it just to be able to throw the warnings since there is a really good chance it will be a storm by landfall.....

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  • 3 weeks later...


Claudette

1230 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on

the low pressure system east of the United States mid-Atlantic

coast.

1. Satellite pictures indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity

associated with a low pressure system located about 450 miles east-

northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to become

better organized. Satellite wind data also indicate that the low's

circulation is well defined, with winds of tropical storm force.

Based on these data, advisories on a tropical storm will be issued

within the next hour. The low is expected to accelerate

northeastward during the next day or two, away from the U.S. coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

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Very good idea, why not be more aggressive with putting it out there that it MAY happen, at least do it to the point that the local media etc is putting the word out or there is a scrawl across the bottom of screens in the affected area informing them a TC may be forming that could impact them. I would only do it though when its at least 60-80% likely within 48 hrs and modeled to make landfall or directly effect the coast with winds rain etc above TS force.

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Wednesday 7/22/2015 - 8:35 am ET/7:35 am CT: *** Tropical Storm Danny May Form Along The US Southeast Coast Between Sunday & Wednesday Of Next Week ***

A frontal boundary will gradually push offshore of the US Southeast coast over the next 2 to 3 days. This frontal boundary is then forecast to become nearly stationary along the US Southeast Coast this weekend into next week. As this happens, the upper level trough of low pressure associated with this front will lift out leaving behind a piece of energy near Florida by this weekend and early next week. This type of setup is often times called a trough split scenario where a piece of the trough splits off and can many times lead to the development of a tropical cyclone. I think there is a chance that we will see the formation of Tropical Storm Danny near the US Southeast Coast between Sunday and Wednesday.

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Sunday 8/2/2015 - 6:25 pm ET/5:25 pm CT: I am closely monitoring the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening where I think we have a organizing and strengthening low pressure system that looks to me to be a classifiable tropical cyclone. This includes it has a well defined closed circulation, barometric pressures have fallen to about 1008 millibars and there are wind gusts to 40 mph along the west coast of Florida and across the Big Bend area of Florida.

The latest information can be read at http://crownweather.com/…/important-late-sunday-afternoon-…/ . Additionally, I am monitoring things extremely closely and will have further updates this evening as conditions warrant.

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