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Yellow Evan

E North Pacific Tropical Action 2015

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About time to make this thread.

 

I've never seen the EPAC more conducive. Ever. Very warm SST's and very high instability. Developing El Nino. Near record PDO. 

 

Josh probs has a few chases up his sleeve this season in Mexico.

 

Could be a long season folks.

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So we have a TC outbreak looming.

 

We have two mandarins/cherrys near 130w (where no TC has been observed in may) and the GFS and ECMWF show a MX hurricane at day 8-10

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Tropical Storm Andres was designated this morning. It should have little issue becoming a hurricane and eventually a major hurricane amid record warm sea surface temperatures, a sufficiently moist environment, and anticyclonic flow aloft. The system doesn't appear to be a direct threat to land.

 

uE5Frrg.gif

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Andres looks to be undergoing some significant strengthening over the last few satellite frames.  The eye is clearing out and there's a solid ring of cold cloud tops.  A very compact storm.

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Andres is definitely very near Category 4 intensity after undergoing an impressive/somewhat unexpected period of rapid intensification. It is the 5th major hurricane in the month of May on record, and it is the farthest west a major hurricane has formed in the East Pacific prior to June.

 

UewoJmN.gif

 

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Two-E was just designated. Although shear from Andres should shear the cyclone over the next 36 hours or so, the environment is forecast to become dramatically more conducive thereafter, and TD Two-E may end up surpassing Andres in peak intensity.

 

7b6CCHn.gif

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Andres is a fearsome-looking storm at the moment with a clear, symmetrical, buzzsaw eye and a concentric ring of severe thunderstorms.  We could be in for an insane season.

 

 


 
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Two-E was just designated. Although shear from Andres should shear the cyclone over the next 36 hours or so, the environment is forecast to become dramatically more conducive thereafter, and TD Two-E may end up surpassing Andres in peak intensity.

 

7b6CCHn.gif

 

 

 

 

Really love the early panels showing the well-organized low-level circulation!

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Blanca now a hurricane and getting going in a hurry.  You really have to wonder what kind of season we're going to see in the EPAC.  Two big majors by early June?  Every wave is going to be exciting this season.

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NHC is now predicting a peak of 140 knots for Blanca. That will make Blanca the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record.

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Incredible.

 

Blanca is both the earliest 2nd hurricane (surpassing 1990's Boris) and the earliest 2nd major hurricane (surpassing 2014's Cristina) on record in the East Pacific. Assuming the current NHC forecast holds, it will become the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the basin tomorrow.

 

OIbbwPN.gif

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Blanca's clearly been having problems with extensive outer convective banding on its south side over the past few days. The extreme upper-level divergence in the environment is facilitating outer convection that is choking off inflow to the core, hence the relatively warm CDO around the eye.

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Ava's record of earliest Category 5 hurricane should remain firm. Although Blanca put on an incredible burst of rapid intensification yesterday morning, the storm remained over the same location for too long and caused upwelling, which resulted in a disruption of the core. This disruption in return allowed for dry air to become more easily entrained, and that dry air in return induced an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. A series of unfortunate events for the cyclone. Although the upper-level setup, with poleward and equatorward outflow channels, is as good as it gets for a tropical cyclone, and although the storm is accelerating and moving over warm waters again, its current structure should deter anything other than slow to steady intensification.

 

wgUdrCH.gif

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Blanca made a dramatic recovery over the past 18 hours once it began to move away from its own upwelling. NHC has it at 115kts. The core will remain over 27-28° celcius SSTs through this evening, then it should gradually begin another weakening trend as it moves over colder SSTs.

 

post-845-0-29739700-1433608092_thumb.gif

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AF309 about to make its first pass into Blanca, we should get a better gauge on the intensity of this storm shortly.

 

Definitely a comeback storm.

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AF309 about to make its first pass into Blanca, we should get a better gauge on the intensity of this storm shortly.

 

Definitely a comeback storm.

 

Recon experienced a problem and had to bail before the mission was complete. They did punch the core and sent a vortex data message before having to leave though:

 

URPN12 KNHC 061851

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022015

A. 06/18:13:30Z

B. 17 deg 48 min N

109 deg 44 min W

C. 700 mb 2700 m

D. 84 kt

E. 053 deg 30 nm

F. 144 deg 106 kt

G. 053 deg 31 nm

H. 953 mb

I. 10 C / 3044 m

J. 18 C / 3048 m

K. NA / NA

L. CLOSED

M. C45

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF309 0202E BLANCA OB 12

MAX FL WIND 106 KT 053 / 31 NM 18:04:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 234 / 21 NM 18:19:30Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 09 KT

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Socorro Island automated reporting station reporting 74mph sustained winds and a gust to 101mph.

 

An automated station on Socorro Island recently
reported sustained winds of 74 mph (118 km/h) and a wind gust of
101 mph (162 km/h).

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Tropical Depression Three-E has been declared south of Mexico. Further intensification is likely over the coming days, and the official NHC forecast calls for it to attain hurricane status in ~48 hours. Model guidance, which unanimously supported a landfall in the Gulf of Tehuantepec yesterday, is now indicating more of a westward turn that may allow the storm to parallel the coast.

 

Yet another storm in this already record-active Pacific hurricane season.

 

BC0TMWK.gif

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Saw an interesting feature on IR.  You can see the tower go up on the east side of Carlos and start to make its expected counterclockwise motion following the storm's rotation, until it suddenly reverses course.  Must be some strong northerly sheer.  Is that correct?

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Carlos has not received much attention, but it began a shrinking process and then began to reintensify. It's currently a 75kts hurricane, and it appears it is still strenghtening, as it has started to show an eye on the vis imagery. This is a real microcane, as hurricane winds only extend outward up to 10 miles(!)

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Was this the first time the Central Pacific basin had three classifiable tropical cyclones simultaneously? 

 

Yes.

 

We also have Dolores now and Enriue. Enrique has a dim future, but Dolores could become a Cat 3 or 4 in a day or two.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Guillermo reaches Category four intensity.

is this the first system since iselle that may potentially make it to the big Island of Hawai'i? or is my memory wrong?

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