vortmax Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Yet more potential coming our way tomorrow evening, we've been 'protected' near the S Ontario lake shore for the first 2 rounds: IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR FLOODING...A RISK WILL ALSO EXIST FORSEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SPC HAS INCLUDED WESTERNNEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAYS 2 AND 3. A SURFACE LOW WITHACCOMPANYING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG A STALLEDFRONTAL ZONE CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO AND PROVIDING SYNOPTIC FORCINGFOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS FOROUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE MODELSFORECAST MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN 40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ALSO SHOW VEERING 1000-500MB WINDS SUPPORTIVEOF ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION WITH ROTATING LEADING CELLS DURINGTHE LATE AFTERNOON CONSOLIDATING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS INTO THEEVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE ANISOLATED TORNADO. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL NOT SUPPORT A LARGEHAIL THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Anyone else sick of this incessant rain yet? +2.5" already for the month. Seems like lately its like this every June.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vortex910 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Grab those umbrella's tomorrow, High PWAT values coupled with the slow moving remains of tropical depression Bill equals RAIN RAIN RAIN. A small band of heavy rain will develop tomorrow and these areas could see 2-4" who get hit by this band. Other areas could see amounts approaching 1". Another rainy Sunday ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The dynamics for this next system are quite impressive. If an MCS forms, we could see a whole bunch of severe reports by tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vortex910 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Nasty MCS transitioning into what looks like to be quite the squall line moving into the Upstate tonight and early in the morning. Should see some light rain with the approaching warm front before the main squall line associated with the main cold front sweeps in the overnight hours. Winds in the lower levels in excess of 50KT suggest the squall line will bow out as the cold front becomes negatively tilted and this could pose a threat of damaging straight line winds in excess of 55mph along the leading edge of the bowing segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vortex910 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 To bad the clouds are going to stick around. severe 4 solar storm will give way a nice showing of the Auroras tonight approx. 12am local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 To bad the clouds are going to stick around. severe 4 solar storm will give way a nice showing of the Auroras tonight approx. 12am local. Netwc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looking at the modeling the last few days I had to double-check that I wasn't getting old model output from Dec - March. Monster ridge out west and deep trof right set up over us. Certainly not overly summery for the foreseeable future. Storm this weekend taking a nice track to cash in on a nice 6-12" thump...er, an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vortex910 Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Coming from WA where it has a reputation of being perpetually inundated with rain, I think it has rained more here (Baldwinsville) than it did in Seattle before I left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 This summer effing sucks so far. Shooting now for the third rainiest June for KSYR. Seems like the past 3-4 summers have been a repeat of this nonsense. The mosquitoes are unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vortex910 Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Rinse. Wash. Repeat forecast. Rain with thunderstorms all day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Rinse. Wash. Repeat forecast. Rain with thunderstorms all day tomorrow. Was in Florida the last 8 days with 90s and sun. What did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Happy 4th everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Warning just issued for our region. This must be the 4th or 5th one this season. Pretty active so far, can't complain about much. Just drove home and lights are out over much of the area. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 434 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DERBY...OR NEAR HAMBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUFFALO...CHEEKTOWAGA...WEST SENECA...LACKAWANNA...KENMORE... DEPEW...TONAWANDA AND AMHERST. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 57A AND 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Some bad storms just went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Some bad storms just went through. That is some surprising damage seeing as there were only 7-8 storm reports from all of WNY. Very localized downbursts is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Some bad storms just went through. That's a pretty hefty set of damage there. Hope everyone ended up being okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 That is some surprising damage seeing as there were only 7-8 storm reports from all of WNY. Very localized downbursts is my guess. Yeah it was mainly south of here at Sunset Bay, some extensive damage their for sure. That's a pretty hefty set of damage there. Hope everyone ended up being okay. Yeah definitely was surprising. We lost power all across the southtowns but thankfully o reports of any injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Hey everyone! I was talking with some mods of these forums about possibly joining another sub-forum or combining with ours. As we can see this forum is totally dead from April to October. Even in the prime winter months there is less then 10 active posters, if that. Would you guys be up to joining another forum if it came to it? We were discussing about combining with the Ontario posters which have similar weather to ours or even Northeast Ohio/Northwest PA? They wanted me to post this to see if anyone here agrees or disagrees with joining them. Any input would be appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Hey everyone! I was talking with some mods of these forums about possibly joining another sub-forum or combining with ours. As we can see this forum is totally dead from April to October. Even in the prime winter months there is less then 10 active posters, if that. Would you guys be up to joining another forum if it came to it? We were discussing about combining with the Ontario posters which have similar weather to ours or even Northeast Ohio/Northwest PA? They wanted me to post this to see if anyone here agrees or disagrees with joining them. Any input would be appreciated! I'm still thinking about how this. It's definitely dead in the summer, but LES season can get busy from activity of both locals and non-locals interested in our area. And our daily activity from Oct/Nov through Feb/Mar is so often affected by low end mesoscale events that don't affect NE OH or SW ON & CDN Niagara that I think we do need a separate forum - peak activity, if not number of posters, justifies it. But yeah, W NY weather is really boring during lake shadow season, and nobody has much to say. In maybe five or six weeks lake will be at peak heating and we should be able to get LE convection at night. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I'm still thinking about how this. It's definitely dead in the summer, but LES season can get busy from activity of both locals and non-locals interested in our area. And our daily activity from Oct/Nov through Feb/Mar is so often affected by low end mesoscale events that don't affect NE OH or SW ON & CDN Niagara that I think we do need a separate forum - peak activity, if not number of posters, justifies it. But yeah, W NY weather is really boring during lake shadow season, and nobody has much to say. In maybe five or six weeks lake will be at peak heating and we should be able to get LE convection at night. Can't wait. It's completely dead from Mid April to October here. There is many events that don't affect others in specific sub-forums. The great lakes portion has people who average 250+ inches of snow per year in the upper peninsula of Michigan to those that average 15-20 inches a year in Southern Ohio. Toronto/Cleveland/Erie are connected to the lakes that make up this region and figured they would be a good group to join or combine with in terms of similar weather. Maybe not so much on the mesoscale side of things, but definitely on the synoptic side. We have had some very active weather this year so far in regards to severe. Erie county has been under a Severe T-storm warning at least 4-5 times so far this spring/summer. We've also had tornado warnings across the area with 2 confirmed touchdowns south of Rochester and Syracuse, with little talk of severe. I love talking about weather all year long and would be nice to have some summertime discussions of it, even though it is rare here compared to the plains. I've been quite active in the Great Lakes section and its fun learning about severe and the lively discussions they have. Hopefully more posters respond. Thanks for the input WNash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I could see a merger making sense but we would have to be able to create our own discussion of LES events separate from co-occurring synoptic events, and we would also need a running WNY/CNY/North Country discussion for patterns and conditions. My fear is that mods would try to merge a local lake enhanced event with a broader synoptic storm discussion, even if the local conditions and effects in our area are very different from the rest of the area. With absolute guarantees that we could maintain local autonomy in our discussions during LES season without moderator interference, I would be ok with a forum merge. But if they start merging our LES discussions, forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Hey everyone! I was talking with some mods of these forums about possibly joining another sub-forum or combining with ours. As we can see this forum is totally dead from April to October. Even in the prime winter months there is less then 10 active posters, if that. Would you guys be up to joining another forum if it came to it? We were discussing about combining with the Ontario posters which have similar weather to ours or even Northeast Ohio/Northwest PA? They wanted me to post this to see if anyone here agrees or disagrees with joining them. Any input would be appreciated! I'd rather go in the other direction drop the Quebec, Canadian, Vt connection we have. This should be a WNY, CNY, and North Country forum. Just because things aren't happening doesnt mean we have to force a conversation. When there is exciting weather, we will post about it. When there isnt, we won't. Who cares if the forum is dead for 6 months, it's not like its wasting someones money or something. I have little to no interest in discussing weather that doesnt directly impact our area. When I see a post pop up in here, I want to know that it involves our area, not somewhere 600 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'd rather go in the other direction drop the Quebec, Canadian, Vt connection we have. This should be a WNY, CNY, and North Country forum. Just because things aren't happening doesnt mean we have to force a conversation. When there is exciting weather, we will post about it. When there isnt, we won't. Who cares if the forum is dead for 6 months, it's not like its wasting someones money or something. I have little to no interest in discussing weather that doesnt directly impact our area. When I see a post pop up in here, I want to know that it involves our area, not somewhere 600 miles away. This^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'd rather go in the other direction drop the Quebec, Canadian, Vt connection we have. This should be a WNY, CNY, and North Country forum. Just because things aren't happening doesnt mean we have to force a conversation. When there is exciting weather, we will post about it. When there isnt, we won't. Who cares if the forum is dead for 6 months, it's not like its wasting someones money or something. I have little to no interest in discussing weather that doesnt directly impact our area. When I see a post pop up in here, I want to know that it involves our area, not somewhere 600 miles away. A good point - why should it bother us if it's quiet in here for six months? If we're honest about it, we have just about the most boring weather in the eastern US for half the year, and just about the most exciting weather for a good part of the other six months. And now that I think about it, I would rather see a forum where we're not lumped in with other areas - our local climate is such that we have little to do with them. For many of us, the lake shadow beats away the severe that they see in other parts of the PA/Upstate forum. I'd be fine with being on our own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 All sub forums get quite when the weather turns tranquil....and our current sub forum has a couple dozen posters vs. a couple hundred or so in the major metro areas....we shouldn't increase our "area" just to have more discourse about the potential for a cumulus cloud to pop, lol! I'd rather have a campaign to recruit other enthusiasts that reside in our area to become active participants....but, nevertheless, Partly Sunny with a chance of showers isn't going to labor the servers ever!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I'd rather go in the other direction drop the Quebec, Canadian, Vt connection we have. This should be a WNY, CNY, and North Country forum. Just because things aren't happening doesnt mean we have to force a conversation. When there is exciting weather, we will post about it. When there isnt, we won't. Who cares if the forum is dead for 6 months, it's not like its wasting someones money or something. I have little to no interest in discussing weather that doesnt directly impact our area. When I see a post pop up in here, I want to know that it involves our area, not somewhere 600 miles away. The Upstate forum is connected to Lakes Erie and Ontario. Cleveland, Erie, and Toronto are connected to both of those lakes and are effected by similar weather including lake effect with just different wind directions. I thought it would be cool to include those who also get hit with similar events on both the mesoscale and synoptic side. Quebec, Vermont, etc... Have a completely different climate than we do. They are all upslope flow, inland Nor'easters, and heavily elevation dependent. Northeast Ohio, Northwest PA, Southeast Ontario has a very similar climate to Western New York and this region as a whole. That's the thing though, we have had some pretty exciting weather this year so far. The crazy rainfall, 4-5 Severe t-storm warnings for Erie county, 2 tornado touchdowns south of major cities and countless severe t-storm warnings throughout the state. It's just it gets very little talk because people are just interested in snow and don't get excited about rain, severe, wind, etc... We have one of the smallest sub-forums in terms of coverage area compared to others. The great lakes forum in which I frequent quite a bit because their weather is similar to ours in governed alot be the lakes has posters that average 250"+ inches of snow a year in the upper peninsula of Michigan and those that average 20" of snow a year in southern Ohio. These locations are separated by hundreds and hundreds of miles. They have so much active discussions and everyone gets along quite well. It's not like they are 600 miles away. Toronto and Erie are an hour away from my location and Cleveland is 3 hours away. Cleveland is only 180 miles away, Erie 92 miles, and Toronto 98 miles. I understand that it doesn't need to be active constantly and you bring up some great points, but to increase our user base in one of the most exciting places to be for weather in the winter would be nice to have. Cleveland/Erie/Toronto get hit by similar synoptic set-ups as we do in Buffalo. They also have some posters that truly enjoy severe, wind, rain, etc...Would be nice to have a somewhat more active spring/summertime weather discussion. If no one wants to change, I'll let the mods know to just keep it as is and continue spamming the great lakes severe weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 A good point - why should it bother us if it's quiet in here for six months? If we're honest about it, we have just about the most boring weather in the eastern US for half the year, and just about the most exciting weather for a good part of the other six months. And now that I think about it, I would rather see a forum where we're not lumped in with other areas - our local climate is such that we have little to do with them. For many of us, the lake shadow beats away the severe that they see in other parts of the PA/Upstate forum. I'd be fine with being on our own. Our local climate is very similar to the places I mentioned above. We are connected to the same lake, just at different ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 All sub forums get quite when the weather turns tranquil....and our current sub forum has a couple dozen posters vs. a couple hundred or so in the major metro areas....we shouldn't increase our "area" just to have more discourse about the potential for a cumulus cloud to pop, lol! I'd rather have a campaign to recruit other enthusiasts that reside in our area to become active participants....but, nevertheless, Partly Sunny with a chance of showers isn't going to labor the servers ever!!! Very true. July is usually the deadest month on weather forums. Severe season is done, hurricane season isn't in full swing yet, and rain is usually sparse. Good points overall, we will just stick to our small tight knit community then. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Back to the weather. Some decent storms about to move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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