BuffaloWeather Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Nice pics Rich Thanks Scott! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The 30th anniversary of this outbreak coming up soon. This year marks the 30th anniversary of May 31st 1985 tornado outbreak that affected parts of Ohio (OH), Pennsylvania (PA) and Western New York (WNY) producing 43 tornadoes. This event was fueled by a very unstable atmosphere favorable for tornadic activity as storms formed along and ahead of a potent late spring cold front. Tornado activity across WNY was confined to Southern Chautauqua County with multiple reports of large hail and wind damage all across WNY with the frontal passage. A total of two tornadoes were produced as the cold front swept across WNY producing an F3 and F4 and were part of the worst outbreak in this area since 1944. The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri (now the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)) issued Tornado Watch #211 prior to the severe weather outbreak across the region. Later that evening, the first of the two tornadoes (F4) entered Chautauqua County. The tornado passed by to the south of the town of Clymer and then moved northeast before dissipating near Panama, NY. This tornado covered a total of 28 miles with most of the significant damage occurring towards the end of the path. The tornado had winds in excess of 200 mph at times as it traveled across the area. Along its path, this tornado averaged 250 yards wide and briefly expanded to a quarter mile wide as it moved over the rough terrain of Chautauqua County. The second tornado (F3) formed near Busti, NY and moved northeast before dissipating near the town of Poland. Eye witness accounts of the tornado detailed several smaller vortices circling about the main funnel. There were multiple accounts noting an anticyclonic rotation (clockwise). Damage from the tornado was estimated at over 3 million dollars to structures, excluding the damages to vehicles, livestock, a church (which was reduced to rubble), several businesses and personal property. In addition, thousands of trees were destroyed. There were no deaths associated with this tornado outbreak in WNY but there were several injuries. Following the tornado several eyewitness reported some interesting accounts and stories: Report of U.S Government Saving Bonds falling from the sky in Olean, NY (Cattaraugus County) with an Ohio address. Papers from Albion, PA falling over Bemus Point on Chautauqua Lake. Tree debris (leaves) falling out of the sky over Jamestown, NY. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Buffalo, NY used radar, spotter reports and upstream tornado history to issued timely warnings. During the course of the evening hours, 7 additional warnings were issued across Buffalo’s area of responsibility. Numerous reports of large hail (up to 2 inches), high winds, down trees, and power lines were also reported. It was noted that at least 90% of those that were interviewed during the storm survey heard either the Watch or Warning issued by the NWS. –One individual in the hard hit village of Busti stated: the warning may have saved her life and her children because they knew it was coming and took shelter in the interior room. Furthermore, she stated that the low injury and zero deaths might largely be due to the advanced warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Here is a pretty cool video I got of the glaciers at Niagara Falls last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Tornado warning just south of me. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... CENTRAL WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT* AT 1029 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF HAMBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Tornado warning just south of me. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... CENTRAL WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT* AT 1029 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF HAMBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Beat me to the punch - was just about to post this. Looks pretty wild down that way on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Beat me to the punch - was just about to post this. Looks pretty wild down that way on radar. Slight risk tomorrow for our region. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...ON 30-50 KT WESTERLY 850-500 MB FLOW...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNING EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE NARROW PLUME OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING...THOUGH STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AIDED BY A FOCUSED AREA OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...PERHAPS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STORMS MAY PRIMARILY INITIATE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OR CLUSTERS...BEFORE CROSSING TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO/NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVETROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACERIDGING AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL HELP QUICKLYBOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY MIDDAY.BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A 50KTLOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATINGAND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASEDTHREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1000-2000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEARFORECAST AT 40-50 KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACEAHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM FIRING BEFOREMAXIMUM SEVERE INDICIES DEVELOP. SOME STORMS WILL THEN BE TRIGGEREDALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UNTIL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVESWITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FROMBUFKIT ARE MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WHICH SUGGESTS A STORM MODE OFMULTICELL LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAINTHREAT. SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING OF THE WINDS MAY LEAD TO STRONGERUPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO SHOULD ANY NOTCHESDEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks like an elevated chance for severe weather today including the continued mention of an isolated tornado... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 FWIW, the 12z and 18z NAM show an environment supportive of tornadic supercells in the Mohawk/Hudson valleys tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 FWIW, the 12z and 18z NAM show an environment supportive of tornadic supercells in the Mohawk/Hudson valleys tomorrow. EF0 yesterday near Rochester. 0150 2 ENE PADELFORD ONTARIO NY 4295 7728 EF0 TORNADO 60-70 MPH ... HALF MILE LONG PATH NEAR SHORTSVILLE RD AND CR 28 INTERSECTION. (BUF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Another potential for severe winds, hail, and tornado this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 With an effective warm front moving into central New York, a remnant outflow boundary to the south and locally backed winds, this appears to be a climo setup for a tornado or two this afternoon. Particularly in the Mohawk Valley east to the Capital District. SPC just jssued a mesoscale discussion mentioning a possible to probable Tornado Watch coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 From KBUF... THE SECOND THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VISIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RECEIVEABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORTSBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WHILE A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILLNOT ONLY HELP TO TRANSPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THEREGION...BUT WILL GENERATE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS.THIS MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE REGION BEINGUNDER THE `FAVORED` JET ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120KT H25 JET OVERQUEBEC. A SURFACE LOW WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONESUPPORTING LOCALLY ENHANCED 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF200 M2/S2 OR SO IN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KNOTS 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER BULKSHEAR AND A LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLEOF GENERATING TORNADOES WILL EXIST...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDAND HAIL. A STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50 KTS ACROSS THE INITIATINGBOUNDARY WILL FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR REAR INFLOW JETS/CONVECTIVEAUGMENTATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUCH THAT AN EVOLUTION TOWARDBOWING SEGMENTS SEEMS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Concerned with the area on either side of I-90 from the Syracuse area back to Albany. Warm front has lifted and dew-points are rising through the 60s. Winds strongly backed. KSYR 121754Z 06006KT 10SM SCT060TCU SCT200 27/19 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP096 TCU NW T02720194 10272 20167 58030 That gets your attention in this type of a setup that far north with ENE winds, a dew-point of 67 and 2m temps cracking into the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Concerned with the area on either side of I-90 from the Syracuse area back to Albany. Warm front has lifted and dew-points are rising through the 60s. Winds strongly backed. KSYR 121754Z 06006KT 10SM SCT060TCU SCT200 27/19 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP096 TCU NW T02720194 10272 20167 58030 That gets your attention in this type of a setup that far north with ENE winds, a dew-point of 67 and 2m temps cracking into the 80s. 84 degs with 65 dew at KBUF. Cells look good ahead of the front, I like areas from Rochester to Elmira to Albany, exactly where the 5% tor. box is with SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Cell headed towards Tully is getting its act together quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Tornado and Severe t-storm watch. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY EXPECTED TO MOVE / DEVELOP EAST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE A SEPARATE LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WESTERN NEW YORK. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK TO 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLENS FALLS NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 That line is getting its act together before it hits WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 tornado warning just hit my phone for madison county from the cell moving thru from tully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Tornado Warning for a cell about 18 miles south of Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Definitely some decent mid-level rotation with this cell. Also a hint of a ZDR arc, though the signature is a bit elevated from the ground at ~60 km from KBGM at 0.9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Definitely some decent mid-level rotation with this cell. Also a hint of a ZDR arc, though the signature is a bit elevated from the ground at ~60 km from KBGM at 0.9 degrees. Low level shear probably isn't quite strong enough yet for tornadoes, which should change later. Should also note that despite the paltry mid level lapse rates, the low level lapse rates in this area today are quite impressive. There appears to be some more isolated cells west of Syracuse that should track into this environment later as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Was going to head up but ran late, andy do you think there is a legit chance for a few weak TORs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Low level shear probably isn't quite strong enough yet for tornadoes, which should change later. Should also note that despite the paltry mid level lapse rates, the low level lapse rates in this area today are quite impressive. Yeah, it will be interesting to see how much surface-based instability hangs around as the shear increases. It seems like any cell that forms now and traverses the frontal boundary may continue to feed on the unstable air while experiencing increased low-level shear. Depending on how quickly the low-level environment stabilizes, these boundary-crossing cells may have the best chance at producing a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Was going to head up but ran late, andy do you think there is a legit chance for a few weak TORs? Yes. Looks like 40-55 kts of effective shear present with the storms around Syracuse, which bodes well for continued supercellular storm mode given spotty capping present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Only two hour drive to Syracuse wish I didn't work until 7 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Rotation intensifying on the original discrete cell again from KBGM. Storm is generally heading towards the capital region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Observations from ALB show backed SSE low level flow and mid 60s dewpoints with that supercell approaching from the west, heading in the direction of Schenectady. Also seeing some consolidation of the updraft via echo tops from both KBGM and KENX. Should add that KBGM shows strong rotation aloft on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Menacing-looking circulation near Sloansville on the Albany supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Ontario County Tornado write-up http://www.weather.gov/buf/StormSummaryOntarioTornado20150611 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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