BuffaloWeather Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Come on lake Erie, gives us some storms tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 We've had some very impressive cumulus clouds towering into the northern sky the last few days here on the lake breeze convergence. Crystal clear blue sky in the lake shadow makes a nice backdrop to the big cumulus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Only a few more weeks until I'm back in Oswego! Hopefully the end of summer is a fun one in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Only a few more weeks until I'm back in Oswego! Hopefully the end of summer is a fun one in upstate NY. It should be. Late August starts the busy season weatherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 It should be. Late August starts the busy season weatherwise. I'll be busy with a lot of stuff- golf tryouts at the end of August, and a lot of meteorology courses taking up time during the day too. As long as it's active weather I'll be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I'll be busy with a lot of stuff- golf tryouts at the end of August, and a lot of meteorology courses taking up time during the day too. As long as it's active weather I'll be happy! That's awesome man. Good luck this semester! I am usually on the warm weather and sunny train until Nov 1st. Around that time I like to see really active weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 I'm back lol. Had out first Lake Effect rain shower move through here around 5 this morning. Well according to Jim Teske on 9wsyr it was Lake Effect. Beautiful 68 degree's right now with a touch of a cool breeze. Day's are getting shorter and loving it. This weekend sun up will be after 6 am and next week sun down will before 8pm whoohoooo. Bring on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Nice article about this upcoming winter. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3058&cm_ven=TW_BLOG_LB_073015_5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Some storms about to move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 We had quiet the flash flood last night over here thanks to lake erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 We had quiet the flash flood last night over here thanks to lake erie! Was not from Lake Erie. From Buf NWS Facebook: Mark, in response to your questions this event would probably not be best categorized as lake effect. As is often the case, a lake breeze boundary left over may have provided a focus for convection and some moisture, but temperatures aloft were too warm to result in lake induced instability. It's a common question to convert summertime rain events into snow, but do keep in mind it is much more warmer and moist in the summer than in the winter so these type of precipitation rates would be unrealistic, even for intense lake snows. This said, the standard water equivalent of snow is typically estimated at 10:1. Most research shows it is a bit higher here, and it can vary widely from event to event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Crazy totals! 7.7 inches in South Pendleton over night. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 From retired NWS met Steve McLaughlin: “Impressive storm! From single cell over s niag county at 11 pm to most intense siege of violent storms in several years over buffalo metro by 2 am…whew! Terrific lightning! It’s those subtle boundaries in these humid air masses and warm August lake fueling overnight storms. It’s amazing how mesoscale we are…the lake protects us during daylight hours in summer but watch out in late summer overnights! 2.35″ here in main/n forest area of wmsvl in about 90 minutes 130-300 am. This is the most in a single day in my 4 yrs here. We were all fortunate in that we had been quite dry for several weeks so runoff was fast and few problems left. Now just sunny and steamy” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 10,568! That's how many lightning strikes (both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground) occurred between 11pm Friday night and 4am Saturday morning across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I'm sure some of you are making the early prediction for winter. Everything I find so far looks at 1957-8 as the best comparable, and comparing it to weather station data I have (I cover Norwich due north to Watertown) it would seem that this is a sound bet; ...still too much static in the NMME, CANSIPS, CFSv2, etc., but if 57-8 is the real analog, this is the graphic that'll fit. Bad news for Tug Hill snowmobilers- too much warmth over the lake from a generally zonal pattern, and the temps are somewhat backloaded into JFM, but normal snowfall and temps across CNY generally. Just for fun at this point in the year, of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Keep in mind 57 58 was a weaker el Nino than this will likely be, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Oh, I know. Working in analogues is always a 'best fit' exercise, and this year is a tough one, but covering everything from ENSO/SST's through the major tele's down to the QBO, only 57-8 was really 'close'. I still think the evolution of SST's in the North Pacific/development (or not, or where) of the Aleutian low will be decisive, with the strange behavior of the Atlantic (historically, relative to the Pacific) being a wildcard for the coastal (or not) track. ...tell you the truth; I'm not even sure analogues 'work' anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I know the weather has been quite boring but found a great read. http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No3/1977v002no03-Dewey.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 70F out and I'm actually a little cold, I don't think I'm prepared for winter yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 70F out and I'm actually a little cold, I don't think I'm prepared for winter yet I'm definitely not. I hope it stays relatively mild in Sep/Oct. Judging by the strength of the El Nino it looks like this winter might start later than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Buf snowfall in strong el nino years. 1957 1958 124.7 1965 1966 98.2 1972 1973 78.8 1982 1983 52.4 1997 1998 75.6. Mean 85.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Buf snowfall in strong el nino years. 1957 1958 124.7 1965 1966 98.2 1972 1973 78.8 1982 1983 52.4 1997 1998 75.6. Mean 85.9 El Nino looks to be strong from now until December, but after that looks to decline. IF anything we might have a late start to winter. Only at a 1.5 Anomaly from January to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 In Moderate El Ninos, Buffalo snowfall has been the following: 86-87- 67.5" 87-88- 56.4" 91-92- 92.8" 02-03- 111.3" 09-10- 74.1" Average- 80.42" So moderate/strong El Ninos are a bad thing for snowfall across WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 El ninos almost always peak in the fall. There's a three month atmospheric lag to the conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 El ninos almost always peak in the fall. There's a three month atmospheric lag to the conditions. Never knew that thanks! Even during strong El Ninos you can get temperatures like this. Each year has its own identity, it only takes 1 Lake Effect Snowstorm to boost KBufs totals towards normal. Courtesy of Jim Cantore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 We're strong super on the weeklies and the last month. Just a question if we break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 We're strong super on the weeklies and the last month. Just a question if we break the record. What are your thoughts on Erika? Any chance it hits the mainland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 lake effect season begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Lake effect is supposed to END!?! I guess no one told Lake Ontario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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