Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Posted 02 October 2010 - 07:52 PM Posted 27 July 2009 - 04:45 PM If you remember this thread I posted back in July 08 predicting a major weather Noreaster on the east coast in the Dec 12-15 period Noreaster The whole concept worked out very well as indeed a major storm affected the entire East coast in that time period. Well after doing some research on the timing of the below Syzygy events, once again I am calling for a major crippling type nor'easter to affect the East coast in the Jan 28th- Feb 2nd period. This year as a further definition so that it is clear I expect more of a severe blizzard type event with the predominant precip type to be snow versus last years mainly storm driven rain. The timing of this tide and the intensity of this low should mean severe coastal issues especially in those areas affected by NE winds. These tidal dates are not voodoo forecasting, they correlate very well with extreme weather conditions over the years. We had a great thread here a couple of years ago with many many examples of such. Put these dates in somewhere and see what happens the next time. Here is a short list of the most extreme tidal events based on the time between perigee and syzygy being less than 5 hours. GINXY"S GALE II Well last year it was the major MA storm on this date This year SNE prepare for.a cold severe KU with all the associated ramifications two days either side of March 19 th 2011 GINXYS GALE 3 3/19/2011 Full 5/6/2012 Full 6/23/2013 Full 8/10/2014 Full 9/28/2015 Full 11/14/2016 Full 5/25/2017 New 1/2/2018 Full 7/13/2018 New 8/30/2019 New 10/16/2020 New 12/4/2021 New 1/21/2023 New Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I guess we can't look at PM's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 <br />I guess we can't look at PM's?<br /><br /><br /><br />What really pisses me off is attachments pics are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I guess we can't look at PM's? Yes we can...I just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Yes we can...I just did. Yeah I just clicked on the little magnifying glass. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> What really pisses me off is attachments pics are gone Are they saved on your own computer? Had you deleted them from your manage attatchments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Posted 02 October 2010 - 07:52 PM Posted 27 July 2009 - 04:45 PM If you remember this thread I posted back in July 08 predicting a major weather Noreaster on the east coast in the Dec 12-15 period Noreaster The whole concept worked out very well as indeed a major storm affected the entire East coast in that time period. Well after doing some research on the timing of the below Syzygy events, once again I am calling for a major crippling type nor'easter to affect the East coast in the Jan 28th- Feb 2nd period. This year as a further definition so that it is clear I expect more of a severe blizzard type event with the predominant precip type to be snow versus last years mainly storm driven rain. The timing of this tide and the intensity of this low should mean severe coastal issues especially in those areas affected by NE winds. These tidal dates are not voodoo forecasting, they correlate very well with extreme weather conditions over the years. We had a great thread here a couple of years ago with many many examples of such. Put these dates in somewhere and see what happens the next time. Here is a short list of the most extreme tidal events based on the time between perigee and syzygy being less than 5 hours. GINXY"S GALE II Well last year it was the major MA storm on this date This year SNE prepare for.a cold severe KU with all the associated ramifications two days either side of March 19 th 2011 GINXYS GALE 3 3/19/2011 Full 5/6/2012 Full 6/23/2013 Full 8/10/2014 Full 9/28/2015 Full 11/14/2016 Full 5/25/2017 New 1/2/2018 Full 7/13/2018 New 8/30/2019 New 10/16/2020 New 12/4/2021 New 1/21/2023 New Well I guess it's time to bump this and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well I guess it's time to bump this and hope for the best. Geez... imagine if??? That would be so cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 1/21/23...something to look forward to...I'll be nearly 2 months beyond my 76th bday. Hope to be alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 1/21/23...something to look forward to...I'll be nearly 2 months beyond my 76th bday. Hope to be alive. You will probably be remembering the walk you took the day you posted the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 There are indications in the guidance of a developing gale on Mar 19-20, just 500 miles NE of New England - near or just south of Newfoundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2011 Author Share Posted March 14, 2011 There are indications in the guidance of a developing gale on Mar 19-20, just 500 miles NE of New England - near or just south of Newfoundland Good one does Rodney Dangerfield write your lines? Perhaps you might want to do some research and then throw out some wisecracks. It is what it is. But with your track record on 12 hour lead times I guess this is why you posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Good one does Rodney Dangerfield write your lines? Perhaps you might want to do some research and then throw out some wisecracks. It is what it is. But with your track record on 12 hour lead times I guess this is why you posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2011 Author Share Posted March 14, 2011 In your fanny. , was up in your area yesterday, near your neighborhood, nice snowcover Go UCONN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Good one does Rodney Dangerfield write your lines? Perhaps you might want to do some research and then throw out some wisecracks. It is what it is. But with your track record on 12 hour lead times I guess this is why you posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Good one does Rodney Dangerfield write your lines? Perhaps you might want to do some research and then throw out some wisecracks. It is what it is. But with your track record on 12 hour lead times I guess this is why you posted this. I thought he was being supportive of your idea but I guess you didn't have that impression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 To be honest, this forecast doesn't look as if it will work out. Unfortunately. Some of the long-range models had a storm in this time frame but they all lost it, and now we're faced with another very mild period. The models have all been much too aggressive in bringing back the -NAO block and colder conditions since February, especially the GFS. We keep seeing a semblance of blocking around Day 10-15, but then it never verifies and we get screwed again. I'm not going to believe in a Greenland block and associated cold/stormy conditions until I see it actually happen, since everything seems to be slipping as we approach the time frame of forecasted blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Posted 02 October 2010 - 07:52 PM Posted 27 July 2009 - 04:45 PM If you remember this thread I posted back in July 08 predicting a major weather Noreaster on the east coast in the Dec 12-15 period Noreaster The whole concept worked out very well as indeed a major storm affected the entire East coast in that time period. Well after doing some research on the timing of the below Syzygy events, once again I am calling for a major crippling type nor'easter to affect the East coast in the Jan 28th- Feb 2nd period. This year as a further definition so that it is clear I expect more of a severe blizzard type event with the predominant precip type to be snow versus last years mainly storm driven rain. The timing of this tide and the intensity of this low should mean severe coastal issues especially in those areas affected by NE winds. These tidal dates are not voodoo forecasting, they correlate very well with extreme weather conditions over the years. We had a great thread here a couple of years ago with many many examples of such. Put these dates in somewhere and see what happens the next time. Here is a short list of the most extreme tidal events based on the time between perigee and syzygy being less than 5 hours. GINXY"S GALE II Well last year it was the major MA storm on this date This year SNE prepare for.a cold severe KU with all the associated ramifications two days either side of March 19 th 2011 GINXYS GALE 3 3/19/2011 Full 5/6/2012 Full 6/23/2013 Full 8/10/2014 Full 9/28/2015 Full 11/14/2016 Full 5/25/2017 New 1/2/2018 Full 7/13/2018 New 8/30/2019 New 10/16/2020 New 12/4/2021 New 1/21/2023 New Well, maybe a coating to an inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Well, maybe a coating to an inch... Rabbit out of a hat Thurs?, maybe too far North? Nice Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Rabbit out of a hat Thurs?, maybe too far North? Nice Miller B It's coming... you'll be skiing in fresh mashies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 It's coming... you'll be skiing in fresh mashies Tuesday AM should be sweet, delayed but not denied, maybe an unfail Ginxy gale Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The blizzard of 93' happened 4-6 days after the strong perigee then. Don't give up yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 The blizzard of 93' happened 4-6 days after the strong perigee then. Don't give up yet! OK dude I am hanging on, shaken not stirred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 To be honest, this forecast doesn't look as if it will work out. Unfortunately. Some of the long-range models had a storm in this time frame but they all lost it, and now we're faced with another very mild period. The models have all been much too aggressive in bringing back the -NAO block and colder conditions since February, especially the GFS. We keep seeing a semblance of blocking around Day 10-15, but then it never verifies and we get screwed again. I'm not going to believe in a Greenland block and associated cold/stormy conditions until I see it actually happen, since everything seems to be slipping as we approach the time frame of forecasted blocking. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 HM, whatcha thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 HM, whatcha thinking? I am thinking that if the coastal doesn't nab you up there, the norlun will get someone. What a cold...cold air mass behind this thing. The question is: what storm will be the "end of pattern storm" when the -NAO block becomes absorbed into the PNA ridge? There are some nice candidates showing up in the extended range through early April. Climo is going to keep people more hesitant to predict accumulating snow but in a pattern like this...well what I should say is, this is the pattern you need this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 salivating... just salivating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 I am thinking that if the coastal doesn't nab you up there, the norlun will get someone. What a cold...cold air mass behind this thing. The question is: what storm will be the "end of pattern storm" when the -NAO block becomes absorbed into the PNA ridge? There are some nice candidates showing up in the extended range through early April. Climo is going to keep people more hesitant to predict accumulating snow but in a pattern like this...well what I should say is, this is the pattern you need this time of year. Yea exactly, climo is a real b**ch on the CP. NNE high els are still favored around here but sweet look today. Chances is all we can ask for. Interesting trifecta of Teleconnections. As sad as it is, seeing snow in Japan peaked my interest, also the crazy QPF in LA usually translates. Should be a fun week to ten days. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 At first glance, it may appear that the 3/23-25 storm is going out to sea given the pattern in place. However, with the PV stretching back into Ontario/Quebec opening up some recovery in the heights and ascent, I can't see why this doesn't trend NW in the next couple of days. Think about the last system that was modeled to be well out to sea, only to end up west of the Appalachians. It is spring now; new rules apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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