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Winter storm threat 2/21 - 2/22


JCT777

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Yeah, the 12z NAM is about as great of a setup as I could hope for (nice thump of snow, followed by not-a-complete-washout).  Let's hope other 12z guidance is at least close to it.

 

We'll find out shortly what the 12z RGEM shows, the 6z was pretty much in line with the 6z GFS and both 12z NAMs. The 12z high resolution NAM looked especially nice :-). Here's hoping!

eta: The 12z RGEM looks a little south of 6z, can only see out to 30 hours, but looks good to that point.

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Based on the GFS run.. I would say eastern PA looking really good for significant snowfall.  At least a 4 to 8 inch snowfall, say for Lancaster, Southeast PA up to Allentown.  Back my way in South Jersey, especially for Salem, Gloucester, Camden and Burlington, 2 to 4 inches.  

 


 

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Hurricane's maps have the snow starting at 4pm and rain by 8pm :huh: that would be a total buzzkill

 

Personally feeling like it will be snow from 2pm to 9pm

Hurricane did say he thought the models were a little slow with the onset of precip -- he thinks it maybe snowing as early as 1pm in the Philly area. He also thinks he may up his accumulations a little in some areas. 

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I'm thinking snow gets into our area tomorrow between 1 PM and 3 PM (SW to NE) and it snows pretty nicely for at least 6 hours before any mixing/changeover.

As modeled now I think that's a solid call. Both the nam and gfs show snow knocking on the door at 1pm and for many of these type events the snow actually arrives earlier than forcast.

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The dew points right now are about -14F and we're due for more cold/dry overnight.  It may take time for the atmosphere to moisten.

 

I saw something this morning, I thought it was in a Mt. Holly AFD, about thinking the atmosphere should moisten up quickly tomorrow due to the southerly flow. I looked for it just now but couldn't find it. Maybe it was my imagination?

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