smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How much is it showing? 18z RGEM map, still snowing in north Indiana / all of Ohio / SEMI at 48hrs so you can add more to it in those areas. but it is on the far northern edge of all models so I don't know how much I would trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 2-3" (more across IN/OH). But keep in mind the GEM has been the most bullish of all of the models. It's probably still playing catch up with the suppressed solution. I'm hoping for 2". Enough to freshen up the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is juiced to say the least.... Looks good in the cold sector FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0Z NAM looks to be coming north a bit, not surprising since it was the most southern outlier the last couple runs, might be good for some of you OV guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Dynamite consistency, NAM. 12z run snowfall: 0z run snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Dynamite consistency, NAM. Lol I was thinking maybe this whole extreme south shift was a bit too extreme, might be another correction north or 2 yet, that was just a super crazy south shift the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks more like the 18z RGEM. Keep it coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How do you go from a track where it looked as if even YYZ could get precip issues to a track (>)200 miles further south within one day is beyond me. This has been a horrible year for the models. This Winter's a cruel joke. This record cold is nice to a certain point, but this is getting ridiculous now. i just hope March is wetter because its been way too dry. We should get a more clearer consistent track from all the models by 12z tomorrow. Storm should be partially sampled tonight. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 BTW, this was the 18z RGEM 48 hour total QPF. More to come further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How do you go from a track where it looked as if even YYZ could get precip issues to a track (>)200 miles further south within one day is beyond me. This has been a horrible year for the models. This Winter's a cruel joke. This record cold is nice to a certain point, but this is getting ridiculous now. i just hope March is wetter because its been way too dry. We should get a more clearer consistent track from all the models by 12z tomorrow. Storm should be partially sampled tonight. Correct me if I'm wrong. With the sesonal heating coming on in march, the baroclinic zone should go north, I think it may be a good month for us northern subforum members as long as it doesn't torch too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z 4km NAM total QPF through 0z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hopefully we can keep the northward shift coming. Some of us were all but out of it at one point today! Its been quite interesting, humorous, and frustrating at the same time watching the models shift back & forth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z 4km NAM total QPF through 0z Sunday. hires_t_precip_mw_16.png Let's keep up the good trends. Even without really high ratios, could be looking at a high end advisory situation...at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z RGEM is a nice hit for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z RGEM is a nice hit for many Tracks near columbus on that run, nails people just south of chicago to INDY and north in indiana, and most of the northern 2/3 of ohio, with some ok snow into SEMI also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On the 0z NAM, the PV lobe is slightly north compared to 18z giving the pac vort a little more breathing room/opportunity to strengthen as it pulls NE. Notice how the posterior jet streak is a little more amped. 0z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z RGEM is a nice hit for many Yeah, looks like about .75" as snow at IND. Tries to flip to rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z RGEM Snow Map: still snowing in north Ohio and east of there for a couple more inches or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Will be interesting to see what the 12Z GFS shows. Seemed to me (I'm still a cold weather semi-virgin obviously) the 18Z was a tad North, held on to the low a little longer before shredding it, but more importantly trended colder allowing for more over running. I don't want to see it much stronger. Don't think there's a lot of room for a Northward shift, but another 50 miles, I'll be like Mike Ryan at KIND and blow my top. Sick of frozen petrified mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Will be interesting to see what the 12Z GFS shows. I think most of us are interested in seeing what the 00z and 06z GFS show first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z GFS coming in juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0Z GFS a bit stronger with the surface low at 30h, with more ridging out front, looks to go a lil bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think most of us are interested in seeing what the 00z and 06z GFS show first... Like I said, I can't even tell time lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z GFS 2mb stronger and north so far at 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z GFS 2mb stronger and north so far at 42h. Yeah a bit further north through 51 hours. Precip shield is more juicer on the northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS took a step in the right direction as it followed the UL trends that the NAM had between 18 and 0z. The trend is clear but I would't trust it too much with the details considering the mesoscale nature of the system. The NAM/RGEM should handle the energy better overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Look at this change in qpf on the 00z run at 33 hours compared to 18z at 39 hours The model runs tonight should have more credence as better sampling is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z GFS has a more closed low at 1008mb near cleveland at 48h vs more open weaker waves in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z GFS shows around 3-4.5" for the GTA. Pretty much in line with the 0z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS took a step in the right direction as it followed the UL trends that the NAM had between 18 and 0z. I would't trust it too much with the details considering the mesoscale nature of the system. The NAM/RGEM should handle the energy better but the trend is clear. As long as we don't go above freezing. YYZ has a chance to go an entire month without a day above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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