IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Boston went from being on the southern fringe on Sunday morning at 06z to the bullseye on 12z to the northern fringe on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Real light sleet or freezing rain possible here on Sunday. Then looks like a chance of snow Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Anyone from Sandy hook North is light to moderate snow by late Sunday afternoon. South of that is pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hrs 57 looks to.be snow in north Jersey and sw ctrl Nyc ice to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Boston went from being on the southern fringe on Sunday morning at 06z to the bullseye on 12z to the northern fringe on 18z. where's the bulleye in this run? RI northern CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Then the mid-levels warm again. The 850mb freezing line keeps going South and then North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 where's the bulleye in this run? RI northern CT? Western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Freezing rain by 06-09z Monday for most areas here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hr 62 surface to Ttn...850 by BDr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The surface low actually makes it a bit North of the 12z run. And it's 1mb or so stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hr 66 surface south of ewr 850's northern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hr 69, tight temp gradient near MMU, south of 80 is rain, Northern areas are snow. Ice or sleet in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 wow-this could really be a big mess for alot of areas-mixed bag of everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 This run is definitely warmer at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The surface freezing line goes North of NYC early Monday morning, but there is definitely at least one layer that hangs longer. Could be sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Sw conn and lower Hudsons valley are close to all snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hopefully that's not the final outcome. A lot of hours of freezing rain, sleet, snow and even some plain rain in there. It was a trend towards the snow coming in faster on Sunday. That needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I saw it many times +FZRA can bring surface temps up 1-3 degrees for a short window but they'll fall right back down when it decreases in intensity. The way he phrased it though didn't sound correct I think your clarification of my point is better of course, but my comment was not wrong and certainly not worthy of that reaction (not yours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12z had the low south of acy 18z bump up to Phl. It did seem colder for areas north of nyc. Again sne gets 6-12...while we ride the line. Ice to rain in the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Boston area is the snow magnet this year. Need major changes the next few runs if there is to be major changes. Still have a chance of some icing with the second part of this (which I'd rather we not have), but the first part of it is not even far out on models and clearly will not set up over our area or bring us more than very light snow, if that. All about expectations. If anyone is expecting us to possibly jackpot or get anything more than a few inches and some icing with this, it's time to reevaluate. For far N and W suburbs, these trends could be the difference between nothing and a few inches+ though, so it's worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12z had the low south of acy 18z bump up to Phl. It did seem colder for areas north of nyc. Again sne gets 6-12...while we ride the line. Ice to rain in the city... in the end, ,and i know there is still some time, but NYC south basically has no snow on any models. Probably not the best sign if that is what you are looking for. 18z gfs wouldn't even been an ice storn for NY IMO, although there would be some early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 in the end, ,and i know there is still some time, but NYC south basically has no snow on any models. Probably not the best sign if that is what you are looking for. 18z gfs wouldn't even been an ice storn for NY IMO, although there would be some early euro GFS and uk have snow. So your incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 in the end, ,and i know there is still some time, but NYC south basically has no snow on any models. Probably not the best sign if that is what you are looking for. 18z gfs wouldn't even been an ice storn for NY IMO, although there would be some early 12z euro was pretty cold but was further south with the low. Gfs just bumped north 30 miles..taking nyc out of a serious ice situation. Hopefully just a burp and 00z comes further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 in the end, ,and i know there is still some time, but NYC south basically has no snow on any models. Probably not the best sign if that is what you are looking for. 18z gfs wouldn't even been an ice storn for NY IMO, although there would be some early 12z Euro had some snow for NYC and slightly to the south of NYC. But I agree, overall the snow threat isn't looking very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is far from the final outcome. Throw it out it's the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is far from the final outcome. Throw it out it's the 18z gfs. it's not, but we're starting to hone in on a consensus of sorts as we're out 48 hours now. South trend *could* be ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ignore all surface projections because we know nobody is ever getting above freezing with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ignore all surface projections because we know nobody is ever getting above freezing with this event Do you think this could go further south to bring NJ/NY Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 it's not, but we're starting to hone in on a consensus of sorts as we're out 48 hours now. South trend *could* be ending Well then we're in for another round of ice because that surface is going to verify much colder yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Do you think this could go further south to bring NJ/NY Snow? Not really, sleet yes, snow I don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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