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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Anyone checks out the 12z models? It's like they're toying with us now

12z Euro looks slightly stronger and a bit more south with tomorrow's s/w. There is a bit of an eastward expansion in the qpf. How much is sacrificed to moisten up the atmosphere? Looks like 0.5 to 1.5" of snow for DFW with higher amounts heading NW. Wouldn't take a big shift to get 2-3" into the area but a bad shift leaves looking like today.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I still think winter's not over after tomorrow's event. The cold wave depicted for around March 5-6th looks mighty cold...it looks like a NW flow dry event, but there's energy depicted around Baja, which could make a difference, as the flow turns NE and moistens. Obviously, that's way out, but the overall pattern is well modeled, it's the detail on the pattern that would make the difference.

We need the Baja energy to play along this time. We have had a really hard time getting something negative tilted this winter and this could be last chance with legit cold in place.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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00z NAM is another slight shift, DFW is close to really getting in the game.  DFW is b/w 0.20 and 0.25 qpf before switching to sleet or rain, that could be pushing the 3" range with the ratios FWD is talking.  However, ratios will start to deteriorate as we move into Friday evening and warm air aloft starts  pushing in.  So maybe 2 - 2.5" on the NAM? 

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

I'm guessing Dan saw the 00z NAM but isn't totally buying in just yet:

 

Regarding my snowfall forecast map. Those totals are not "etched in stone". A small change in track may shift totals North or South.

 

probably being extra conservative considering how Dan was the first tv met to go upwards with the snow Wed

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

FWD not bumping totals just yet, going to let the night crew make the call:

 

B-zfZAlUEAAP2BF.jpg

 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 270417 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST IN PLACE REGARDING TIMING AND EXACT
LOCATION WHERE SNOW BANDS SET UP FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE DECIDED THAT
CONFIDENCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
CANNOT RULE SNOW POSSIBLY ENTERING FAR WESTERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB ON TONIGHT/S
FWD SOUNDING TO OVERCOME AND DECIDED IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS OF THE HRRR, WRF, AND NAM MODELS
DO SHOW ABOUT A 1-2 HR SOONER ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR FROM THE DFW METRO AND POINTS NORTH...AS THE BAND SETS UP
IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

AT THIS TIME...THE MORNING RUSH SHOULD BE `OK`...BUT SNOW WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BY 9 AM...IF NOT BETWEEN 8-9 AM IN THE WESTERN METRO
AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DOES SHOW SOME MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS OR SLIGHT SHIFT
NORTH OR SOUTH COULD HAVE QUITE AN EFFECT ON LOCATION...AMOUNTS
AND IMPACTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON FRIDAY.

00Z MODELS ARE JUST NOW FLOWING IN...SO WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN LOCATION...AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Low DPs are worrisome.

 

We are certainly going to lose some qpf to the saturation process.  It can be maddeningly slow at times and surprisingly quick at other times.  From my time in DC, I prefer the waiting on saturation vs. waiting on change over.  This past system was a perfect example, just watching hour after hour of rain fall that could have been glorious snow totals.  

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

We are certainly going to lose some qpf to the saturation process.  It can be maddeningly slow at times and surprisingly quick at other times.  From my time in DC, I prefer the waiting on saturation vs. waiting on change over.  This past system was a perfect example, just watching hour after hour of rain fall that could have been glorious snow totals.

I agree. My motto has always been "let's get the cold here first, then worry about the precip." Anytime the mid to lower levels are warm, we have to worry about latent heat release putting the screws to us. It's tough around here to get the entire column sub freezing AND have enough moisture to work with. That said, I think short waves dropping down from north of west are our best bets for that to happen. The west and southwest have too much opportunity for warm air to get involved. Let's hope it's dynamic enough overcome the dry air at the surface and jogs enough to get that 2-4" line into our neck of the woods. We're not to far away, but FWD has made some good calls this week.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Odessa schools closed out west, so it looks like perhaps they got more snow than expected....at least it looks like they upgraded amounts overnight. That may mean this is tracking more south. Seems to be on radar to my very untrained eyes. But, would rather see it further south slightly still....and the area of snow is still quite narrow.

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