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November 2014 General Discussion


Geos

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Through Nov 21st, the yearly temp at DTW is 49.4F

 

45.7F - 1875

48.1F - 1888

48.3F - 1912

48.5F - 1904

48.5F - 1917

48.6F - 1907

48.7F - 1979

48.9F - 1885

49.1F - 1883

49.3F - 1940

49.4F - 2014

 

So this is the 11th coldest year on record, through Nov 21st. However....it is the 3rd coldest of the last 100 years at Detroit. Only 1940 & 1979 were colder!

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Through Nov 21st, the yearly temp at DTW is 49.4F

 

45.7F - 1875

48.1F - 1888

48.3F - 1912

48.5F - 1904

48.5F - 1917

48.6F - 1907

48.7F - 1979

48.9F - 1885

49.1F - 1883

49.3F - 1940

49.4F - 2014

 

So this is the 11th coldest year on record, through Nov 21st. However....it is the 3rd coldest of the last 100 years at Detroit. Only 1940 & 1979 were colder!

 

Currently the 3rd coldest year on record for Indianapolis.

 

1) 51.8˚ in 1875

2) 51.9˚ in 1885

3) 52.0˚ in 2014 thru 11/21

4) 52.1˚ in 1979

5) 52.7˚ in 1917

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Just noticed Gaylord is at 54" of snow already this year, I wonder if we can make a run at 200+. i guess that all depends on how quickly the lakes freeze up this year.

 

I wish all weeks would be like this during winter! Would have to by a long track sled!

 

mbl92s.jpg

dang! that's a lot of snow for any month, but NOVEMBER?!  Gaylord is hanging with the UP dogs!!

I feel so bad for Alpena... Their snowfall has been lacking for about 5 years running now.

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dang! that's a lot of snow for any month, but NOVEMBER?! Gaylord is hanging with the UP dogs!!

I feel so bad for Alpena... Their snowfall has been lacking for about 5 years running now.

Was in Gaylord Thursday, depth was crazy on the SW side.

Alpena has been screwed for a while now, they live and die by synoptic snows.

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Incredible snow map^! Can definitely see the higher terrain maps a difference in NWL.

 

Up to 50° here, feels downright warm for this month.

 

Been watching the SSW events this month and we have another one taking place over eastern Siberia.

 

temp30anim.gif

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Was in Gaylord Thursday, depth was crazy on the SW side.

Alpena has been screwed for a while now, they live and die by synoptic snows.

Yea, I live over on the SW corner of Otsego County huge difference compared to the South East or North East areas. I could never live in a place like Alpena, knowing that only 50 miles West gets 4x the snow. It would drive me crazy.

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Incredible snow map^! Can definitely see the higher terrain maps a difference in NWL.

 

Up to 50° here, feels downright warm for this month.

 

Been watching the SSW events this month and we have another one taking place over eastern Siberia.

 

temp30anim.gif

When talking LES,, elevation is everything, hence why Gaylord area over the longer term always averages more then others in NWL. If the Leelanau area had higher elevation they would be even better since they get LES from different flows compared to Gaylord area. With a WNW wind we usually get rocked. Looks like early next week may be another prolonged WNW LES event.  :lmao:

 

What does that Map mean??

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When talking LES,, elevation is everything, hence why Gaylord area over the longer term always averages more then others in NWL. If the Leelanau area had higher elevation they would be even better since they get LES from different flows compared to Gaylord area. With a WNW wind we usually get rocked. Looks like early next week may be another prolonged WNW LES event.  :lmao:

 

What does that Map mean??

 

It is well known that stratospheric warming events (SSW) disrupt the polar vortex higher up in the atmosphere. The higher temperatures shown in this animation indictates such a warming events starting off in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere in eastern Siberia. Not all SSW's breakdown or disrupt the polar vortex, but this one seems to be aimed at the Arctic regions again. I think this is the third one that's occurring in the last 6 weeks.

If you have a strong polar vortex in the stratosphere, you're likely to see colder than normal conditions in the Arctic and Canada and not much further south, due to the cold being bottled up and held by the vortex. The SSW acts to split the vortex and forces in down out of the stratosphere. Lobes of it travel around, like what happened last winter and send down Arctic/polar air into the country. In a nutshell a weak polar vortex makes more cold air available and it is more widespread than a winter featuring a strong polar vortex in the Arctic. The dreaded winter of 11-12 featured a strong polar vortex, which didn't relax until February, then if you remember the subforum finally got into some typical winter weather. 

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It is well known that stratospheric warming events (SSW) disrupt the polar vortex higher up in the atmosphere. The higher temperatures shown in this animation indictates such a warming events starting off in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere in eastern Siberia. Not all SSW's breakdown or disrupt the polar vortex, but this one seems to be aimed at the Arctic regions again. I think this is the third one that's occurring in the last 6 weeks.

If you have a strong polar vortex in the stratosphere, you're likely to see colder than normal conditions in the Arctic and Canada and not much further south, due to the cold being bottled up and held by the vortex. The SSW acts to split the vortex and forces in down out of the stratosphere. Lobes of it travel around, like what happened last winter and send down Arctic/polar air into the country. In a nutshell a weak polar vortex makes more cold air available and it is more widespread than a winter featuring a strong polar vortex in the Arctic. The dreaded winter of 11-12 featured a strong polar vortex, which didn't relax until February, then if you remember the subforum finally got into some typical winter weather. 

Thank You fro the explanation, makes good sense, usually the warming will take a few weeks before we will feel the effects though correct? Mainly having pieces of the PV breaking off have heading down into the states.

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Thank You fro the explanation, makes good sense, usually the warming will take a few weeks before we will feel the effects though correct? Mainly having pieces of the PV breaking off have heading down into the states.

 

Yes, there is a lag time of 2-3 weeks. These events have been ongoing for awhile now, so the cold air is already here as we all know!  :lmao:

 

Get the lights up Geos??? It was a nice break for my skin to have the DP up today....however, given ground temps and the elevated DP, i watched my 3 and 6 year olders bail on the "sweaty" garage floor about half a dozen times...almost made them put on their bike or hockey helmets lol

 

Almost there. I had to take some time and clean the gutters again. I'm hoping tomorrow morning is mainly dry like the models are hinting at. I need about 2 hours to finish.

Yeah nice to have the air more moist. There was actual smells outside today with the dampness. Haha, were they helping with the lights!? Saw a few neighbors taking advantage of the mild weather and putting up lights, but not as many as I thought would.

 

Put my rain gauge back out for this system, but will pull in back in Monday morning once it starts snowing.

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Almost there. I had to take some time and clean the gutters again. I'm hoping tomorrow morning is mainly dry like the models are hinting at. I need about 2 hours to finish.

Yeah nice to have the air more moist. There was actual smells outside today with the dampness. Haha, were they helping with the lights!? Saw a few neighbors taking advantage of the mild weather and putting up lights, but not as many as I thought would.

Put my rain gauge back out for this system, but will pull in back in Monday morning once it starts snowing.

Nice geos....the older boy helped and the younger one didn't provide much more than some good laughs.

Ground certainly got squishier as the day went on....despite no precip falling

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A balmy and foggy 37 this morning.  Feels so nice.  Some melting has taken place but snowpack still over 2'.  worried about the rain and the snowpack on the house absorbing it and freezing up so have lots of work today :snowing:

I had same worries, so roofed raked my house for a second time already on Thursday. 2 x already and not even December yet pretty incredible. Our snow pack is down to less then a foot now, the warm temps and high humidity are eating the pack away at a good clip. When the rain moves in probably wont have much left which is amazing in its own right.

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I had same worries, so roofed raked my house for a second time already on Thursday. 2 x already and not even December yet pretty incredible. Our snow pack is down to less then a foot now, the warm temps and high humidity are eating the pack away at a good clip. When the rain moves in probably wont have much left which is amazing in its own right.

my snowpack is mostly from a heavy wet storm and not LE.  It will sustain thru the warm and wetness and probably absorb the rain more than melt but I expect to be less than 15" when the snow moves back in.

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Does anyone have any links for the parallel GFS? I had been using the tropical tidbits site but that hasnt worked for a few days.

 

Snow completely gone here...was a nice white week for November.

Tropical tidbits has been down for a few days now because  of a massive DDoS attack on his server. I got to believe someone didn't like his site and all the attention it was getting. Its a shame because I loved his site. 

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Does anyone have any links for the parallel GFS? I had been using the tropical tidbits site but that hasnt worked for a few days.

 

Snow completely gone here...was a nice white week for November.

 

Weatherbell has it.  NCEP used to show parallel versions in the past, but I can't find any info on where it is.  The last time NCEP made parallel versions available was with their previous model site layout as far as I know.

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Well you got your grill back Bo!

Now you'll probably have to reclaim it again after tomorrow.  :D

 

51° now. Any other November this wouldn't feel like anything that abnormal, but after the last 10 days it feels way above normal. 

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The stretch or 7 consecutive days of 1"+ snowcover at Detroit ties for 3rd longest stretch in November since 1906.

 

9 days – Nov 15-23, 1932

8 days – Nov 23-30, 1956 (ended up 10 days in a row, thru Dec 2nd)

7 days – Nov 8-14, 1921

7 days – Nov 16-22, 2014

6 days – Nov 25-30, 1950 (ended up 7 days in a row, thru Dec 1st)

6 days – Nov 25-30, 1996

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DVN...

 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED FOR CST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
411 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014


...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT MOLINE IL...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.57 INCHES WAS SET AT MOLINE IL TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.49 SET IN 1927.


ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

 

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