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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Can we just have spring please this is totally disgusting. But there is a storm showing up on the 240 hr GFS tonite so all is not lost! Geez what a wretched excuse of a winter this has been.

 

Probably won't have Spring until sometime after mid-March. 

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00z Euro is like the 12z run except a bit farther west and north with the heavier precip, and there's more precip. North AR into E OK would still get the most. There might still be mixing issues in OK. 

 

No follow up system so whatever you get Sun/Mon is it.

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00z Euro is like the 12z run except a bit farther west and north with the heavier precip, and there's more precip. North AR into E OK would still get the most. There might still be mixing issues in OK. 

 

No follow up system so whatever you get Sun/Mon is it.

Thanks Jomo. Could have been worse.

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In the short term (Sunday) it looks like Missouri really could get 1/2" to 2" of snow. This may not be the BIG ONE you guys keep looking for.  NWS Springfield:

 

 

The forecast remains murky Sunday through next Wednesday. Following
in the footsteps of yesterday`s 12Z and 18Z model iterations, last
night`s 00Z model suite continues to support the idea of an initial
shortwave dropping south from the northern High Plains on Sunday,
bringing with it a quick but potentially intense burst of snow for
the region Sunday and Sunday night/early Monday. Model QPF is respectable
with this system, with temperatures certainly cold enough to support
all snow. That said, this wave will be moving into a very dry low
level airmass, and will need to make some effort before snow will be
able to make it to the surface. In addition, much of the heavier
QPF with this system is tied to a well-developed frontogenesis band
that, at least in "model world", develops more or less across the
central portion of the CWA. The eventual location of this f-gen
band will be KEY in determining snow location and amounts,

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Tulsa's writeup states a few inches of snow at best for round 1, though they are highly uncertain as to where the freezing rain line will be. Said monday night into tuesdays second part looks less likely now and remains too far south, probly lol. I'd really love to see at least a 4-5" snow event before winter is over plzzzzzzzzzzz haha

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We are really stuck in a bad pattern. Persistence forecasting (when it comes to precip) is the way to go for our area right now.

 

We've basically been on the southwest edge of a positively tilted trough since fall of 2012 now and it does not seem to be changing anytime soon. 

 

I could care less about snow, let's have some rain - anything - before summer.

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Lol at the donut!! That's just our year....

That's the truth. I saw a map in one of the severe weather threads where there were hardly any storm reports in 2014 in almost the exact spot also.

In other news, the 0z gfs appears to have started it's habit of shifting back to the northwest. Let's hope it continues for a run or 2.

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