Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM. Still is still a "gem" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This sounds like it could hit someone pretty good, problem is its too far out for me to buy into anything lol. The way this winter season has been I am not buying into it just yet until saturday haha. Tulsa has high precip chances for a mixed bag, sunday night into tuesday night it sounds. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, it isn't 1-2 days from the event yet. If we are less then 24 hrs with WSW that's when I personally start letting excitement out and quit sleeping! ** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This sounds like it could hit someone pretty good, problem is its too far out for me to buy into anything lol. The way this winter season has been I am not buying into it just yet until saturday haha. Tulsa has high precip chances for a mixed bag, sunday night into tuesday night it sounds. Time will tell I know I'm with you on this.. I don't trust anything this winter's trend is against us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z Euro is out to about 102 and it looks more like the GFS so far. Might be a band of snow across N AR and E OK. Additional energy diving into the west and upper low still sitting over the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z Euro does go south this run. Most everyone would probably get *some* snow, and considering how bad this year has been. A couple of inches wouldn't be too bad. Areas that would get the least are farther NW with the most happening over AR. The farther east you are, the better chance of getting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How does the surface temps look this run? If it's low 30s then I don't see much of anything sticking around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not looking good per latest runs eh, well lets see if it does the usual and heads back north like most storms do and go too far north to be all rain haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How does the surface temps look this run? If it's low 30s then I don't see much of anything sticking around Eh, it's going to be close for you all down south probably. The cold airmass is actually aimed at the eastern US (backdoor front) so the farther SW you go, it's going to get warmer.Also have to worry about a warm nose it looks like, especially in OK. Still too far away right now to get into too many details as it'll probably change. I'll have the Ensembles in about an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not looking good per latest runs eh, well lets see if it does the usual and heads back north like most storms do and go too far north to be all rain haha. I really don't see it being all rain. I would be surprised. Lets see 00z before we get to consered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I really don't see it being all rain. I would be surprised. Lets see 00z before we get to consered. True, especially for night time it looks to be cold enough. Dont mind me Im just overly negative this season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Eh, it's going to be close for you all down south probably. The cold airmass is actually aimed at the eastern US (backdoor front) so the farther SW you go, it's going to get warmer.Also have to worry about a warm nose it looks like, especially in OK. Still too far away right now to get into too many details as it'll probably change. I'll have the Ensembles in about an hour or so. Thanks Jomo for keeping us all up with everything. Especially Euro related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 True, especially for night time it looks to be cold enough. Dont mind me Im just overly negative this season lol Totally understandable. We all are lacking a good snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not liking that the Euro and GFS keep moving it east and south...hoping that was just a bad run. If it goes anymore S and E, we all are in trouble! Dangit..I'm trying not to have a meltdown over one run and being so far out, but this "winter" has been awful for us in NE OK...half an inch of snow in Tulsa is just plain sad! Come on snow gods...let this be our storm! (I mean our thread area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the 12z Euro ensembles are pointing towards Arkansas, and far E OK as having the best shot of frozen precip. There are some members that have the best chances in southern Missouri. There are some members which have very light amounts. Overall, a very large spread still but the current best spot to be is probably in Arkansas somewhere, with the better chances in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keeping a eye on the NWS out of Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keeping a eye on the NWS out of Tulsa. Lol that map they really like to change it a lot. Just an hour ago it had nice amounts everywhere. Of course it will change again in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Latest GFS through 90hrs still south into south central Arkansas with the good stuff. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agree completely with Shreveport's NWS.. WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACHOTHER...THEIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR. INPREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS TRACKED THE SFC LOW GENERALLY ALONG THERED RIVER BETWEEN OK/TX KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTORFOR MOST OF THE EVENT AND DELAYING ANY WINTRY PRECIP UNTIL LATETUESDAY WHEN THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. TODAY...THE MODELS AREDROPPING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.THIS IS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS BUT THE VERTICALPROFILE IS STILL TO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OFTHE EVENT.IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SMALL LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THESEFEATURES CAN RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND LARGEDIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TYPES/AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME FRAME...THERE ISA LOT OF ROOM FOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POORRUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. /09/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not sure if this will show up but St. Louis posted this earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Dick Faurot from KOTV in Tulsa has a good write-up. http://www.newson6.com/story/28096453/dick-faurots-weather-blog-warmer-friday-saturday-wintry-weather-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From what I've read on another blog the Ukie is still a good hit and further north than the other global models. With the poor model performance all winter more big shifts in the models the next 24-48 hrs would not surprise me at all. All cards still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From what I've read on another blog the Ukie is still a good hit and further north than the other global models. With the poor model performance all winter more big shifts in the models the next 24-48 hrs would not surprise me at all. All cards still on the table. UKMET looks more like the GEM that ouamber posted, but with less snow in NE OK/SE KS and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not fond of the 00z NAM, but it's the NAM so it's auto-tossed anyway. 00z GFS starting soon though to crush everyone's hopes and dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not fond of the 00z NAM, but it's the NAM so it's auto-tossed anyway. 00z GFS starting soon though to crush everyone's hopes and dreams.Come on JoMo! Let's have some faith. At least for the next 20 minutes or so until we see. I'm holding out for some good news at least for a few more runs.Edit: see, like I said, give it 20 minutes and then crush our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00z GFS *CRUSH* Still may get a bit of a mix and some light snow on Sunday? now it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00z GFS *CRUSH* Still may get a bit of a mix and some light snow on Sunday? now it looks like. Story of our lives this winter, I had a feeling this would happen lol. Well maybe things will work out on future runs lol?? Not holding my breath again, so sad it has such potential probly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Story of out lives this winter, I had a feeling this would happen lol. Well maybe things will work out on future runs lol?? Not holding my breath again, so sad it has such potential probly too Words of the night " Hokie pokie" one local met used that several times. Hes still not buying the GFS. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00z GGEM goes down in flames as well. Some lighter snows still possible on Sunday/Monday like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Im at a loss of words haha. "Hokie Pokie" lol, havent heard that in a very longgggg time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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