ma blizzard Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 35/23/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Keep in mind that there will be some air mass modification by sensible heat flux of the land (if there is significant solar radiation tomorrow) so parcels will modify some. However, the low to mid-level clouds that are developing over KABI right now might stay entrenched for a while. The higher resolution guidance is unsure if they clear tomorrow afternoon. FWIW I was on the cold side tomorrow too. Well mixed + low to mid level clouds tonight suggest that the MOS guidance is once again too cold. The ECMWF guidence is particularly warm tonight (26F) and the HRRR was splitting the difference (22F)... In respect of the HRRR and ECMWF which performed best last night, I went in the low to mid 20's. 33/23/18/0 Yeah, I knew 20s were unrealistic, but I figured given the HYSPLIT result, and the fact that almost all guidance overdid highs today for both Abilene and Pratt/Guymon, I decided to lean low. Though only 20 of us went 32, and only 5 went lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Went with 35/23/19/0 Feeling pretty confident with my numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 35/23/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 35/24/20/0. Feeling okay about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Look like today's current low of 27 is in serious danger of falling now. EDIT: Really impressive it didn't break 27 even though it was 28 at 2z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Well, for those of us who went cold on the high, looks like it's sayonara as the clouds are breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Well, for those of us who went cold on the high, looks like it's sayonara as the clouds are breaking. 20Z ob only up to 33. I won't throw in the towel just yet but yeah, clouds breaking up is a bit nerve-wracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 20Z ob only up to 33. I won't throw in the towel just yet but yeah, clouds breaking up is a bit nerve-wracking. I'm surprised the obs. was A) OVC and B ) Only 33F. It should be interesting but I think they'll ultimately get past my 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm surprised the obs. was A) OVC and Only 33F. It should be interesting but I think they'll ultimately get past my 34F. I went 34F too. It'll likely squeak past this afternoon but fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Lol. 21Z ob still stuck at 33F with overcast at 6000 ft. Giving me hope. Stubborn hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 34 degrees at 22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 43/25/15/0 MOS is clearly out to lunch this city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 48/20/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Went 47/24/16/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 46/22/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Welp, I guess I'm little worried about my high and low now judging by forecasts on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 43/25/16/0. Not buying MOS going so low tonight but went cool tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I don't understand why the Euro is so warm tonight with mostly clear conditions. I stuck with the "light winds partly clear" physical argument instead of trusting the models that have done well. Hence: 45/21/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 ^^ agrreed (low t reasoning) 44/21/18/0 could see highs a couple degrees warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 44/25/17/0 Went a bit bold with the low. Basically am throwing out the MOS/NWS and going more with a USL/Euro/RAP blend. It has worked well for me the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 MOS Can anyone help me get archived MOS data from past days/months? Also a good site for grid interpolations of GFS/NAM that would be great, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 http://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/ Maybe this will help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 46/19/15/0 Hoping for a 6z low off 22 and a 11z low of 19, then rocket up to 46. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 45/21/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Thank you @jurg thats exactly what I was looking for. The SREF ensemble mean is right around 26, the lowest member is 24... I went with a SREF/Euro/USL blend. The MOS is clearly in another world with this one. So far I'm about 70 overall hopefully I can keep it up. 45/24/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 44/23/16/0 The high for this city has been killing me. Less than 3 error on low and wind and freaking 11 for high. I hope I can turn it around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 OVC? You gotta be !@#$% kidding me! 43/21/16 :/ having terrible luck here, I just want this semester to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The reason I went warm was because the models showed a layer of high RH air trapped beneath the inversion tonight, so I figured a deck of stratus would develop and keep them warmer. We'll see if they loose anymore, but they're overcast now and up to 28. With WAA developing tomorrow I am hoping the clouds clear by 18z. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I looked at their 900mb temps. from Tuesday and it looked like tomorrow's would be a bout 1C cooler which is why I went 43F tomorrow (they hit 45F Tuesday afternoon). However, that was a CAA regime so I'm probably fooked. As for tonight, I assume only partial cloudiness and light winds would allow for them to radiate before any SE breeze. I'm just poor at forecasting I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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