Mallow Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Congrats to Max and the rest of the high camp. I certainly saw the possibility, but I took a chance the other way and whiffed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yikes at the radar. At this point my big play is still the winds, and I can move up even if it rains half an inch, so maybe that cell will produce a nice gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 21 Oct 11:27 am MDT 43 37 79 33 W 28G46 3.00 TSRA FEW026 BKN039 OVC060 29.79 24.289 0.03 Not too shabby! Let see how much more precip they can pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Wow! 24 knots in the book... KBTM 211730Z AUTO 26018G36KT 1 3/4SM +TSRA SCT026 BKN039 OVC060 06/03 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND 25040/1720 WSHFT 1714 LTG DSNT N AND NW RAB22 TSB21 PRESRR P0007 T00560028 KBTM 211727Z AUTO 27024G40KT 3SM TSRA FEW026 BKN039 OVC060 06/03 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 25040/1720 LTG DSNT N AND NW RAB22 TSB21 PRESRR P0003 T00610028 Edit: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Just got a little windy there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 up to 0.19" this past hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I crushed Souls today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I crushed Souls today lolYou'll be first after today, won't you? Good call(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Max and Matt (ma blizzard) are in really good shape. I will likely drop to around 100th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 You'll be first after today, won't you? Good call(s) Except now I'm wishing I kept my higher precip instead of dropping down. Knew that vortmax meant business. I had .45 originally that probably will be too much but middle of the road like .35 is possible if this keeps up, but then again I can't really know with all the radar beam blockage going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 PWATs actually got up to 0.7" today in the morning. That's pretty high for Butte I would reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 KBTM 211843Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN015 OVC020 05/04 A2986 RMK AO2 P0011 T00500044 I may have been blown away on high temps today but at least I'll easily beat consensus on precip and winds. After an awful start at Butte I'm close to cracking top 100 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 What a crazy day to forecast for this city. My winds and precip will keep me afloat today as long as the low gets down near 30 tonight. Should stick around top 60 if that happens. Great forecast by some in here, especially Max for his overall forecast. Great job sir on a tough day for forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 What a crazy day to forecast for this city. My winds and precip will keep me afloat today as long as the low gets down near 30 tonight. Should stick around top 60 if that happens. Great forecast by some in here, especially Max for his overall forecast. Great job sir on a tough day for forecasting Would have been better if I kept my prelim precipcast earlier in the day yesterday of 0.45", but talking to my old professor scared me b/c he said the moisture return was going to be too little too late and I was arguing that the dynamics were great and PWATs of 0.6" especially with that vortmax and PVA with a little help from upper level diffluence from an AC jet streak even though it was only a 80 knot jet streak nevertheless I should of went with my gut that this was going to be more of a stratiform precip shield over a convective one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Would have been better if I kept my prelim precipcast earlier in the day yesterday of 0.45", but talking to my old professor scared me b/c he said the moisture return was going to be too little too late and I was arguing that the dynamics were great and PWATs of 0.6" especially with that vortmax and PVA with a little help from upper level diffluence from an AC jet streak even though it was only a 80 knot jet streak nevertheless I should of went with my gut that this was going to be more of a stratiform precip shield over a convective one. Eh, don't beat yourself up. You still had a great forecast. I had to do all my research and map viewing on my phone yesterday since I was out all day, so I didn't get the best look that I wanted. I did however make a mistake second guessing myself on the high. i had my prelim forecast at 56 degrees and got scared due to the blanket of cloud cover out west and I thought the speed of the system would have it arrive a bit sooner and keep the temperatures down for the late morning. I also never took into consideration the 6z morning of being one of the warmer times of the day and even that had a temp around 54, so I definitely goofed there. I honestly didn't know why I didn't go higher on the precip with such a strong looking vort max coming into the region with strong PVA and high PWAT values for the area. I got burned one year doing high precip and it ended up not getting anywhere near what I thought and I tanked, so maybe I was a bit gun shy. Either way, that was a good forecast by you and even others in here are doing very well. This has been a interesting city to forecast for. I have to admit though, I hate forecasting for the Rockies area haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 My forecast made it out pretty well thanks to precip and winds, but a low of 31-33 would be putting cherry on top with me entering Top 100 again. I think trophy is out of reach now because couple of Cat. 4 forecasters had a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Oh man I got burned on precip. Luckily consensus was .22" and not .62", so a lot of people also got burned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Pretty stable forecast among models so... 55/25/11/0 Really, high has overshoot models few times so that's how I got 55. Low is little tricky, but I'm confident in USL/NAM combo especially with GFS doing bad on low this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 56/26/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 All I can say for now is come on low temp tonight. As for tomorrow... 55/25/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 56/25/12/0 Hopefully I will do better tomorrow. As bad as I did today I still moved up 14 places (so far) lol, guess we all tanked it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 55/26/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The low tonight is tricky... there is a lot of residual moisture hanging around that might make it difficult to radiate as effectively as if it were dry. Dewpoint will need to fall a good 10 degrees tonight which will be difficult with all the residual moisture hanging around. Tomorrow's high is a little easier, we should quickly resume to WAA and mix out, so upper end of MOS guidance seems appropriate. 55/28/17/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Went 57/27/15/0 They've mixed higher than expected almost every sunny day and 700mb temps have generally ran warm most days...if they mix above 700mb tomorrow and the GFS 700mb temps verify closer to reality (around +1-2C as opposed to -1 to -2C on the NAM give or take) they should get into the mid to upper 50's. Went 57 so I was a degree warmer than the 12z GFS MOS. I split the GFS MOS and NAM MOS on the low as I wasn't convinced that dew points would get to 25 or colder like the NAM/USL show. They'll drag the dews down several degrees tonight once they clear (and hopefully that's before 6z for my day 5 low's sake) but I'm not sure if they can loose 10F off of their current dew point. And that's pretty much it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 58/24/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Went 57/27/15/0 They've mixed higher than expected almost every sunny day and 700mb temps have generally ran warm most days...if they mix above 700mb tomorrow and the GFS 700mb temps verify closer to reality (around +1-2C as opposed to -1 to -2C on the NAM give or take) they should get into the mid to upper 50's. Went 57 so I was a degree warmer than the 12z GFS MOS. I split the GFS MOS and NAM MOS on the low as I wasn't convinced that dew points would get to 25 or colder like the NAM/USL show. They'll drag the dews down several degrees tonight once they clear (and hopefully that's before 6z for my day 5 low's sake) but I'm not sure if they can loose 10F off of their current dew point. And that's pretty much it. Except for Day 3. I'm hoping for somewhat of a repeat although I guess there were some high clouds that day that prevented it from getting higher. I guess I'll be hoping for those and maybe the added soil moisture (though that isn't likely to be much of a factor). The low really irked me...couldn't decide if maybe the dews wouldn't drop and the low would be in the high 20s. Ultimately went with the USL/ECMWF combo though. We'll see. 54/25/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Except for Day 3. I'm hoping for somewhat of a repeat although I guess there were some high clouds that day that prevented it from getting higher. I guess I'll be hoping for those and maybe the added soil moisture (though that isn't likely to be much of a factor). The low really irked me...couldn't decide if maybe the dews wouldn't drop and the low would be in the high 20s. Ultimately went with the USL/ECMWF combo though. We'll see. 54/25/13 I think I remember clouds moving in around 18z that day and causing temps to level off. We'll see if that happens tomorrow or not, the NAM showed a few clouds during the afternoon but nothing too long lasting. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 55/24/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I think I remember clouds moving in around 18z that day and causing temps to level off. We'll see if that happens tomorrow or not, the NAM showed a few clouds during the afternoon but nothing too long lasting. We'll see. Yep, day 3 had clouds moving in. I'm a bit concerned about that tomorrow and almost went 55F for that reason, but stuck with my 56F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Yep, day 3 had clouds moving in. I'm a bit concerned about that tomorrow and almost went 55F for that reason, but stuck with my 56F. There's some chance at high clouds moving in as early as 18z, but wanted to gamble on them coming in later. We'll see if I get burned for that or not. Still 39/35, but winds are calm and skies are down to scattered this hour, so hopefully those start going down soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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