Weathergun Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 It's looks transient. But the 0z GFS last night had 80s next Wednesday into New England with 850mb temps 14-16C. The GEFS have has above normal temps next Friday. We have to watch how models handle strong the blocking and trough to our north and east, will be late next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 The Great Lakes and Midwest are usually cooler during the summer when we get developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific. I think our pattern will come down to the strength and placement of the Western Atlantic Ridge. The long range forecasts have us on the western extent of the ridge so far. m.02.t.gif Being on the western edge of the ridge should keep us in a continues southwest flow with warm temperatures and also a steady a stream of moisture out of the gulf. It should keep the gulf open for business severe wise down in the south and also favor a TC track from the western Caribbean into the eastern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Getting 80s this time of year is no longer as big of a deal then if it were earlier in the season. I had 80 yesterday and many places in nj saw 80 as well. Now 90 is a different story so I'm starting to wonder if 90 is possible next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Being on the western edge of the ridge should keep us in a continues southwest flow with warm temperatures and also a steady a stream of moisture out of the gulf. It should keep the gulf open for business severe wise down in the south and also favor a TC track from the western Caribbean into the eastern gulf. Hot and humid summer incoming. Oh wait, that's every summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Hot and humid summer incoming. Oh wait, that's every summer. I just hope that you're here complaining when we have a week straight of pouring rain in July. It will give me some incentive to log in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Hot and humid summer incoming. Oh wait, that's every summer. It's so easy to create a summer forecast if you think about since almost every summer is similar. The question is always whether it will be an even hotter summer than a typical hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I just hope that you're here complaining when we have a week straight of pouring rain in July. It will give me some incentive to log in. LMAO, good luck with that. Our wettest month EVER didn't even feature that ridiculousness, get out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 It's so easy to create a summer forecast if you think about since almost every summer is similar. The question is always whether it will be an even hotter summer than a typical hot summer. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 LMAO, good luck with that. Our wettest month EVER didn't even feature that ridiculousness, get out of here. We've had plenty of summer where it rained everyday for long stretches. Maybe not constantly but with at least some measurable rain. We had that last July. It would be awesome if it was in the 40's with pouring rain for Memorial Day weekend. I might make a special trip to Mid-town just to see the look on your face for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Please verify one time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 We've had plenty of summer where it rained everyday for long stretches. Maybe not constantly but with at least some measurable rain. We had that last July.Last year had that June nor'easter with a full day washout, it was really strange and felt like April. I doubt we've ever seen week long washouts in July. A few 3-4 hour MCS's will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Last year had that June nor'easter with a full day washout, it was really strange and felt like April. I doubt we've ever seen week long washouts in July. A few 3-4 hour MCS's will do the trick. All you need is to have the western atlantic ridge setup in a favorable position and you'll get into a pattern where you destabilize everyday by early afternoon and rain until the sun sets. Again, maybe not total washouts for a week straight, but I've had plenty of summer vacations ruined as a kid where we had say 4 washouts in seven days at our shore house in Pomona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 It's so easy to create a summer forecast if you think about since almost every summer is similar. The question is always whether it will be an even hotter summer than a typical hot summer. 8 out of the last 9 summers with above normal temperatures here is quite a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 All you need is to have the western atlantic ridge setup in a favorable position and you'll get into a pattern where you destabilize everyday by early afternoon and rain until the sun sets. Again, maybe not total washouts for a week straight, but I've had plenty of summer vacations ruined as a kid where we had say 4 washouts in seven days at our shore house in Pomona.I'd love to have a favorable western Atlantic ridge in September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I'd love to have a favorable western Atlantic ridge in September Get some good blocking this summer and the rest of the pieces will fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 8 out of the last 9 summers with above normal temperatures here is quite a run. Screen shot 2014-05-02 at 12.13.18 PM.png Isn't the highest average temperature for the year at NYC 84 degrees? I remember seeing that somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 True of false, Central Park will not record a high of 90 degrees or greater before July 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Isn't the highest average temperature for the year at NYC 84 degrees? I remember seeing that somewhere. Very close to the warmest day on average. 7-21 85 70 77 104 1977 55 1890 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Very close to the warmest day on average. 7-21 85 70 77 104 1977 55 1890 Is that for KNYC or KLGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 True of false, Central Park will not record a high of 90 degrees or greater before July 15th? False - there will be at least a few 90 degree days before July 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 True of false, Central Park will not record a high of 90 degrees or greater before July 15th? False of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I'm going with true. In fact I think KNYC will reach 90 degrees or higher less than ten times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 GFS now looking like the Euro. Delicious pattern upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Where was this all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 can some one help me understand the above map? Is this saying warmer air from the south is on the way in for Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I'm going with true. In fact I think KNYC will reach 90 degrees or higher less than ten times this year. that I might agree with. Doubt they go to 7/15 for the first one...there's always a fluky day here or there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 can some one help me understand the above map? Is this saying warmer air from the south is on the way in for Long Island? Here is the corresponding surface map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Becoming more confident that late next week, possibly Friday 5/9, could feature widespread temperatures of 85-90F across the region, save for the immediate coast. Still think that period could produce an intense blast of warmth. Global teleconnections argue for a very warm period May 8-12th. The NAO / AO trend positive in concert with a falling PNA and rapidly rising EPO, which should all work simultaneously to produce an expansive area of higher than normal heights in the Eastern US for late next week. PNA EPO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I like +1 or so for a May temp departure in NYC. Analogs and pattern progression support this. Here is the aforementioned heat surge on the 00z ECMWF ensembles valid 5/9: Thereafter, we probably enter a back and forth regime with FROPAS followed by cooler than normal temps, then back to above yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 We've had plenty of summer where it rained everyday for long stretches. Maybe not constantly but with at least some measurable rain. We had that last July. It would be awesome if it was in the 40's with pouring rain for Memorial Day weekend. I might make a special trip to Mid-town just to see the look on your face for that one. I'll be the **** out of here if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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