tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The one WSW of ABI is developing nicely. Went from nothing to 30k+ ft in a few scans. Already showing midlevel rotation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Huh? Looks like a few of those cells are now 25-30kft. I was looking at 40 dbz isosurface. But yeah the echo top product is 20-30k now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 131843Z - 132045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WHETHER THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REQUIRE A WATCH...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WEST OF WICHITA FALLS...ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THIS REGION APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AS REFLECTED BY APPARENT 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AS COMPARED TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS. DESPITE CURRENT TRENDS...THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH 21-22Z REMAINS UNCLEAR. A BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THIS OCCURS...SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SEEMS MORE PROBABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR... WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RICHER. ..KERR/HART.. 04/13/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Tornado watch: Central OK/ N Central Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Pretty easy to see the cold front dropping south from KFDR, currently in the Willow/Sentinel, OK area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Supercell in Nolan County about to split...right-turning will likely have a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Cell also trying to fire near Corn, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Cell also trying to fire near Corn, OK. Those storms are getting undercut by the cold front and thus won't have tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 NWP fail on dryline CI today. Heading S on 35 to see whether the stable air wins over the next few hours invof the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Latest HRRR fires an intense cell with strong UH and tracks it along the Red River from ~21z to 02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Hook developing on the southern cell of the ABI pair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 IMO tornado threat is higher in N TX than OK given that initiation has occurred now. The cold front is crashing in OK. Winds are more backed in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 These storm motions to the E should help the storms avoid being undercut with the WSW/ENE orientation of the cold front in western OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Already ongoing storms in E TX expected to strengthen. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0234 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTARKANSASCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 131934Z - 132200ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS INTENSIFICATION OCCURS...LARGEHAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN AN ELEVATED MOISTPLUME ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING SOUNDINGSSUGGEST THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED INNATURE...ORIGINATING ABOVE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTEREDBETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT OVERSPREADINGTHE AREA...AND MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS...A GRADUAL TRANSITIONTO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEWHOURS.THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS UNDERGOINGDESTABILIZATION AS INDICATED BY THE INCREASE IN SBCAPE/MUCAPE TOBETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISEXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KTS AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAKOVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULDSUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGINGWINDS. IF ONGOING CONVECTION CAN TRANSITION TO A MOREDISCRETE...SURFACE BASED MODE...OR...IF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEADOF THE LINE CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF...EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITYVALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.IF A TRANSITION TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BECOMES APPARENT...AWATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY...MARSH/HART.. 04/13/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 If I were chasing today, I probably would have targeted near the Red River in either Gainesville or Sherman. Still thinking the best tornado potential might be there if enough sun is able warm the area up enough, but this morning's rain make me think that might be a difficult thing to do, even with existing storms already firing west of the area. Still though, that's the area I'll be watching with elevated interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 These storm motions to the E should help the storms avoid being undercut with the WSW/ENE orientation of the cold front in western OK. And the low-level winds should back with time (20-01Z) as a secondary low pinches off over the Llano Estacado in ern NM. This trend should increase the low-level shear even as the strongest low-level winds move off to the NE of nrn TX. Storms moving off the dryline would hit the DFW metroplex around 23-00Z if I'm looking at the mean steering flow correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Surprised the tor watch wasn't placed farther south. Tor threat near/north of I-40 in OK is low with the front quickly progressing east towords the unfavorable environment in E. OK/AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 There's ~155-165 n mi between the cells firing on the dryline and the back edge of the precip now in E TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows significant destabilization occurring rapidly between the two convective masses over a several county wide corridor and that's expected to continue through the afternoon. I say all systems go in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Surface wind backing is actually pretty good in advance of the dryline in Texas, but I don't think dewpoints below 60*F are going to get the job done, especially if they continue to mix out to the east like they are right now in the clearing. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=abi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 There's ~155-165 n mi between the cells firing on the dryline and the back edge of the precip now in E TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows significant destabilization occurring rapidly between the two convective masses over a several county wide corridor and that's expected to continue through the afternoon. I say all systems go in TX. Temps increase pretty rapidly in the clearing. Sun has been out off and on now near DFW airport since about 2:45 or so. We shall see if too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I'm all in on Texas at this point. The storms moving off the dryline are mostly isolated and running into an air mass that is backed and increasingly moist. It looks like it's been taking about 2 hours for an area to go from saturation (near 70°F) to the low-mid 80's and they have 2 hour window to do that. Close, but just enough I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 That cell near Breckenridge is going to move into the DFW metro later on its current heading, assuming it sustains itself. It will be moving into stronger LL shear and increasingly low LCL heights as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 It's obvious the anvil level SR winds are quite strong by the way the tops are blowing off to the ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 OKC TDWR showing decent rotation about 6 miles east of Edmond, but it's not all that consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 OKC TDWR showing decent rotation about 6 miles east of Edmond, but it's not all that consistent. Those storms are being undercut by the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 It's obvious the anvil level SR winds are quite strong by the way the tops are blowing off to the ENE. Yep, those storms are right pretty much right in the core of the upper jet streak. *Edit: Assuming you're talking about the Texas storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Despite the storms being undercut, I do see what SouthernNJ is talking about. Looks sort of like there was a spin-up signature on velocity S of Arcadia, but it could be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Definitely a tail end Charlie meso going on over Moore. RFD = Cold Front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Despite the storms being undercut, I do see what SouthernNJ is talking about. Looks sort of like there was a spin-up signature on velocity S of Arcadia, but it could be something else. 4warn Chopper 4 was showing gustnado's in those area's. They are watching the Moore area pretty close right now on the live feed. http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Yeah that area in S OKC/Moore isn't exactly undercut, at least judging by Doppler velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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