April 13-15 Snow Threat

[michsnowfreak]

12z RGEM has two stripes/areas of 0.40-0.60" "liquid equivalent" snowfall. We'll see.

 

4:13 12z rgem snowfall.gif

The RGEM has finally caught onto the potential the NAM and GFS have had for a while. It IS mid-April, but trend is our friend...

[michsnowfreak]

Spring (and Fall) is a time of year ESPECIALLY when guidance temps are often too warm or cold depending on the situation. Usually they will be too climo influenced with the rapid fluctuations that can occur in transition seasons. Ie, often times abnormally warmth is often shown as too cool on guidance, and abnormal cold is shown too warm on guidance. So I am very intrigued that all models show most of the snow falling with temps below freezing, most of it in the 20s. This is very rare for this time of year if that happens.

[Powerball]

Just for the lulz (and old time sake), the SREF plumes for DTW show a mean of 3.8"

 

 

[Chicago WX]

As Powerball said, just for fun. 9z SREF plumes snowfall for FWA, IND, and LAF. Some big dogs in there.

 

 

 

[Powerball]

NMM shows only backside flurries at best.

 

An outlier perhaps, but's hard to get excited about these type of threats when all of the Hi-Res models aren't on board.

[Hoosier]

As Powerball said, just for fun. 9z SREF plumes snowfall for FWA, IND, and LAF. Some big dogs in there.

 

4:13 9z sref fwa.png

 

4:13 9z sref ind.png

 

4:13 9z sref laf.png

 

 

A lot of members below the mean for us.

[michsnowfreak]

NMM shows only backside flurries at best.

 

An outlier perhaps, but's hard to get excited about these type of threats when all of the Hi-Res models aren't on board.

it shows a bit more than flurries, but its by far the driest outlier

[Brewers]

We most likely get dry slotted tomorrow morning but the hi-res models show the snow cutoff just to the west.

[Powerball]

it shows a bit more than flurries, but its by far the driest outlier

 

I will feel most comfortable when we get 100% consensus on the setup (in terms of seeing a fair amount of accumulating snow).

 

It's a very marginal setup, as is always the case with these anafrontal snows.

[Hoosier]

Parameters would support some lake effect snow off of southern Lake Michigan overnight Monday into Tuesday, but they don't become that great so wouldn't expect it to add much.

[michsnowfreak]

I will feel most comfortable when we get 100% consensus on the setup (in terms of seeing a fair amount of accumulating snow).

 

It's a very marginal setup, as is always the case with these anafrontal snows.

I do agree....but I also have to admit the setup in general is looking as best as possible for mid-April. Temps dropping comfortably BELOW freezing and the snow being ENTIRELY a nighttime event. Being just 1.9" way from the record heading into April, with a very-aware public, I thought it entirely feasible to have one of those situations where April snows look like less because of how fast they melt (look at the squalls on Mar 25th....DTW had 1.0" on the day...but it was a product of 0.2" of snow early...that then melted...another 0.2" in the afternoon...then that melted...then 0.6" after the sun went down. So you have 0.6" of fresh snow on the ground, but 1.0" fall on the day). Though most Aprils do see measurable snow (74% since 1881), most of the time its these flash in the pan snows that melt sometimes in hours, and usually in less than a day. There are exceptions of course (a full snowcovered week in early to mid April 1982), but again, those are exceptions.

[Stebo]

I am starting to think this might be a close call for the record here. 1.9" is needed and at this junction I think a 1-2" snowfall call for Detroit isn't a bad call especially considering it should be starting overnight.

[snowstormcanuck]

Mother's Day dusting of snow last year and the potential for significant (by mid-April standards) snow on Tuesday. Just as the public was starting to think springs like 2010 and 2012 were going to be the norm.

[Powerball]

Mother's Day dusting of snow last year and the potential for significant (by mid-April standards) snow on Tuesday. Just as the public was starting to think springs like 2010 and 2012 were going to be the norm.

 

lol.

[dmc76]

I am starting to think this might be a close call for the record here. 1.9" is needed and at this junction I think a 1-2" snowfall call for Detroit isn't a bad call especially considering it should be starting overnight.

Over/Under set at 1.9" for DTW. Im going weenie and going to take the over....

[snowstormcanuck]

lol.

 

People were jarred about the March 12th storm. There's a perception floating around recently that springlike weather starts at the beginning of March.

[Stebo]

Over/Under set at 1.9" for DTW. Im going weenie and going to take the over....

I just can't take the over yet, though it will be close.

[michsnowfreak]

Over/Under set at 1.9" for DTW. Im going weenie and going to take the over....

A majority of models would say over...a few under...all would say at least some measurable snow. If it was winter Id take over in a heartbeat...I am just a bit leary as its mid-April. To clarify, Im not saying that snow wont stick with temps below freezing during the night...because it will...I dont care if it was 90F the day before....but Im just saying even with decent agreement theres a lot that can mess things up (ie arrival of the cold air as powerball stated).

[Powerball]

DTX's getting more bullish.

 

Calling for 1-3" across the board.

[Whitelakeroy]

A majority of models would say over...a few under...all would say at least some measurable snow. If it was winter Id take over in a heartbeat...I am just a bit leary as its mid-April. To clarify, Im not saying that snow wont stick with temps below freezing during the night...because it will...I dont care if it was 90F the day before....but Im just saying even with decent agreement theres a lot that can mess things up (ie arrival of the cold air as powerball stated).

With t-storms today and tonight being the primary action I totally agree.  Once the convection goes through we will be able to see how thing actually set up tomorrow.  Very cliche-sh but if too much convection over TN valley can steal the moisture we need.

[Hoosier]

IWX going 1-3", heaviest southeast.

[stormtrackertf]

Interesting setup... especially as we sit at 77 degrees currently. Crazy Midwest weather.

[Powerball]

NAM backed off drastically on snow amounts (not surprised), mainly because the best QPF no longer aligns with the cold air in time. 

[Geos]

18Z NAM

 

 

Enough to break the DTW snowfall record it looks like.

[Powerball]

So the net result with the 18z run has been an increase in QPF, as the NAM shows 0.50"+ of QPF here.

 

That's good news.

 

The 18z RGEM has 0.40"+ QPF that's snow for Detroit.

[Hoosier]

00z NAM

 

 

[Boogieman]

FNT needs 0.3 for the record? If the P&C holds at 1-3", we should do it.

[Stebo]

00z NAM

 

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_048.gif

Models all going toward a consensus of a solid 1-4" snowfall for SEMI. I know this is surprising to say this but if this holds into tomorrow afternoon, I could see most, if not all of SEMI in an advisory.

[Hoosier]

Models all going toward a consensus of a solid 1-4" snowfall for SEMI. I know this is surprising to say this but if this holds into tomorrow afternoon, I could see most, if not all of SEMI in an advisory.

 

 

Might be able to make a case for it with those amounts given the non-wintry weather of late and the possibility that it's still snowing for morning rush hour there.

[Brewers]

Numerous locations in NC WI have already switched over to snow. If the snow lasts for as long as the RAP and HRRR are showing there will be some surprise amounts.