Looking Ahead - Past Ninos

[Deck Pic]

Not sure if people have seen, but Nino absolutely blew up over the past week...Region 4 is pretty much full blown nino state at this point...so might as well look ahead

 

If you don't like my designations, tough...Keep in mind the pre-satellite data is reconstructed...I am very familiar with the data and have done my best with it, making the necessary adjustments...

 

El Ninos - DC Winters (strength)

 

The Snowy

 

Cold

 

1904-05 (weak)

1911-12 (mod)

1939-40 (weak)

1957-58 (mod)

1963-64 (mod)

1977-78 (weak)

2002-03 (mod)

2009-10 (mod)

 

Average

 

1899-00 (strong)

1913-14 (weak)

1965-66 (mod)

1986-87 (mod)

1987-88 (weak)

 

Warm

 

1905-06 (mod)

1923-24 (weak)

1982-83 (strong)

 

The Average Snow

 

Cold

 

1968-69 (weak)

1969-70 (weak)

1976-77 (weak)

 

Average

 

1888-89 (strong)

1896-97 (mod)

1914-15 (weak)

1925-26 (strong)

1940-41 (mod)

1941-42 (mod)

1994-95 (weak)

2004-05 (weak)

2006-07 (weak)

 

Warm

 

1951-52 (weak)

1953-54 (weak)

 

The Awful Snow

 

Cold

 

None

 

Average

 

1902-03 (mod)

 

Warm

 

1918-19 (mod)

1930-31 (strong)

1972-73 (strong)

1991-92 (mod)

1997-98 (strong)

 

 

 

[Ji]

Hard not to be excited for next season. 6 awful of 31. Wonder what Happened in 1902-03

[Deck Pic]

Hard not to be excited for next season. 6 awful of 31. Wonder what Happened in 1902-03

 

This isn't an exact science, especially using old data..I think it was an 8" winter which isnt a shutout at least...looks like the pattern was simply hideous

 

[weatherCCB]

Great stats Matt. Thanks for sharing. Out of the 36 nino's you listed I only counted 8 strong ones. Seems based off of that a weak to moderate is most likely next year. Any thoughts ? Thanks .

[mitchnick]

hot off the presses from today

 

[Deck Pic]

hot off the presses from today

 

I think we are going to torch pretty early...screw weak...let's go high end moderate/low end strong and roll the dice..we're good at KU's these days

[SLPressure]

Okay. A weenie like me (and others I presume) want to know / understand more about the El Nino weather phenomena.

 

Broad brush understanding of the El Nino:  Basically I know it has to do with the temperature of the ocean off the coast of Peru. When it is warm we have an El Nino and it effects the weather in many ways. One way is to bring warmer and wetter conditions to the southwest USA, including southern California, and a wetter / colder regime to the SE USA, including the DC metro area. Also a reduction in the tropical weather activity in the Atlantic Ocean.  I realize there is a lot more detail than this basic description of the El Nino. So, is this the forum / thread the right place to ask more questions about the El Nino, since we have a long season ahead of us and seemingly time to digest all this information, or should I look elsewhere? If the latter ( or in conjunction with this forum) where is there good  information available?

Thanks in advance.

[mitchnick]

I think we are going to torch pretty early...screw weak...let's go high end moderate/low end strong and roll the dice..we're good at KU's these days

considering NINO's normally peak around Christmas and that graph only goes to August.....well.....mod-strong it should be

[StudentOfClimatology]

Next winter should be El Niño/-QBO/Solar Max. Based on the data available, I think we can begin a weighting process, mainly reducing the carry of years like 1982-83, 1987-88, 1997-98, and 2004-05, which diverge in the stratosphere: (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index)

Looking at the ECMWF site, I think 1965-66, 1968-69, 1994-95, and 2009-10 look fairly representative of the boundary conditions in 2014-15..

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat?1394097536

[Fozz]

Okay. A weenie like me (and others I presume) want to know / understand more about the El Nino weather phenomena.

 

Broad brush understanding of the El Nino:  Basically I know it has to do with the temperature of the ocean off the coast of Peru. When it is warm we have an El Nino and it effects the weather in many ways. One way is to bring warmer and wetter conditions to the southwest USA, including southern California, and a wetter / colder regime to the SE USA, including the DC metro area. Also a reduction in the tropical weather activity in the Atlantic Ocean.  I realize there is a lot more detail than this basic description of the El Nino. So, is this the forum / thread the right place to ask more questions about the El Nino, since we have a long season ahead of us and seemingly time to digest all this information, or should I look elsewhere? If the latter ( or in conjunction with this forum) where is there good  information available?

Thanks in advance.

 

I think this is the perfect place to ask these questions... heck even I wanted to understand strong Ninos better, especially how 97-98 screwed our winter so much.

[mitchnick]

Next winter should be El Niño/-QBO/Solar Max. Based on the data available, I think we can begin a weighting process, mainly reducing the carry of years like 1982-83, 1987-88, 1997-98, and 2004-05, which diverge in the stratosphere: (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index)

Looking at the ECMWF site, I think 1965-66, 1968-69, 1994-95, and 2009-10 look fairly representative of the boundary conditions in 2014-15..

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat?1394097536

have to disagree with you on the solar max....this winter, probably, but not next

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

[StudentOfClimatology]

have to disagree with you on the solar max....this winter, probably, but not next

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

I hope the Australians are correct, but the weaker cycles do tend to feature drawn-out maximums will multiple peaks. I guess we'll see. Nothing beats a -QBO/Solar Min/El Niño combination for DC snowfall, if the analogs have anything to say about it.

That said, the Sun is still relatively weak. I wonder if even a somewhat mundane drop in activity relative to the 2011-14 period might give 2014-15 a resemblance to a solar min as far as the upper atmosphere goes?

Years like 1991-92 offer an ugly glimpse of what can go wrong with a raging Sun in a -QBO..definitely don't want that.

[needbiggerboat]

Even tho most only care about their backyard, a potential super niño + waning arctic sea ice + accelerating Greenland melt would make for very interesting times globally.

[Deck Pic]

we are really torching now and models are bullish...hopefully we'll go moderate or strong....

 

One month Ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now

 

[Fozz]

Is it a good sign that the highest anomalies are currently in the western Pacific, or is it too early to draw any conclusions?

[Deck Pic]

Is it a good sign that the highest anomalies are currently in the western Pacific, or is it too early to draw any conclusions?

 

I don't know that it matters at this point, but we def don't want an east based nino..so I think region 4 torching is a good thing...

[needbiggerboat]

Is it a good sign that the highest anomalies are currently in the western Pacific, or is it too early to draw any conclusions?

 

the curren kelvin wave apparently has temp anomolies that are higher than an this stage of the run-up to 97-98.  some of the more focused sites are speculating on super nino potential.

[needbiggerboat]

[Amped]

LMAO that must have been one of his last skits.

[SLPressure]

Don't know if there is any interest in just an El Nino thread anymore now that we are half way through summer and the winter 2014-15 thread is picking up steam, but I copied this from a link posted in the winter thread.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKSNOTE:  FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFINGCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONSATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC BASIN INDICATE THAT A TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUES. THE LATEST WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SST ANOMALIES OF +0.5 DEGREES C ALONG THE EQUATOR FOR MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BASIN EXCEPT FOR BETWEEN 150W AND THE DATE LINE, WHERE ANOMALIES ARE LESS THAN +0.5C.  EAST OF ABOUT 130W, ANOMALIES EXCEED +1.0 C IN PLACES.  HOWEVER, SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY ACROSS THE TROPICS HAS SLOWED THE TRANSITION TO EL NINO IN RECENT WEEKS.. THE CURRENT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH A DEVELOPING EL NINO. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC, EXCEPT FROM 140W-120W, WHERE THERE WERE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE PAST MONTH. THE SOI REMAINED POSITIVE DURING THE PAST MONTH, ALTHOUGH IT DECREASED FROM MAY TO JUNE.THE EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC (POLEWARD OF 20N) CURRENTLY PROJECTS STRONGLY ONTO A POSITIVE PDO PATTERN, THE STRONGEST SUCH PROJECTION IN LATE SPRING IN MANY YEARS. THE STATE OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALSO A BIT DIFFERENT THAN IN RECENT YEARS, WITH THE MOST RECENT INDEX VALUE OF THE AMO BEING JUST SLIGHTLY POSITIVE, THE WEAKEST IN SEVERAL YEARS.PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTSMOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. THE CFS PREDICTS NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO AROUND +1.0 C BY LATE FALL. THE MEAN OF THE STATISTICAL TOOLS IS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DYNAMICAL TOOL MEAN THROUGH THE FALL, WITH BOTH PEAKING JUST BELOW +1.0C DURING THE WINTER. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST PREDICTS THE SST ANOMALY FOR NINO 3.4 TO INCREASE TO +0.9 C BY THE TURN OF THE CALENDAR YEAR.  THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM THE IMME AND NMME ALSO PREDICT SST ANOMALIES INCREASING FROM NEAR +0.5 C IN JUNE TO NEAR +1.0 BY OCTOBER, WITH THE IMME SLIGHTLY COLDER THROUGH SEPTEMBER, THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE NMME AND IMME HAS TIGHTENED, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREDICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE POSSIBLE EVENT. ALTOGETHER, ODDS OF AN EL NINO EVENT OF ANY STRENGTH PEAK AT 78% BY LATE FALL.  THE COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL SST PREDICTION METHODS SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE MODERATE EVENT, ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG EVENT, OR A RETURN TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH LESS LIKELY, CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. IT IS WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG EVENT IS LOWER COMPARED TO LAST MONTH.    

[mitchnick]

Euro seems to be the warmest per my post above from the Aussie site

here are the Euro plumes for ENSO 3.4 just out for July

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201407!/

[Jebman]

It seems like Nino may be affecting our weather some. This month has been downright MILD and we are getting rain after rain.

 

How is the developing Nino now? We are getting cold front after cold front and more rain is forecast for Sunday. I am scrambling to keep up with mowing my lawn, it looks as green as it should look in late April, NOT late July. Last night Baltimore set a new record low temperature, 57 degrees. The old record was 59.