Hurricane11 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 UPTON: "LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE COAST ON TUEAS AM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THEN HEAD NE ANDOUT TO SEA TUE NIGHT-WED. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON AMT OF PHASING OFVARIOUS INVOLVED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUTIN TIME... WITH THE 12Z GFS WEAKER AND SUPPRESSED...WHILE THE 12ZECMWF SHOWS NEAR PERFECT PHASING OF STREAMS...DEVELOPING A INTENSEOCEAN STORM THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH/EAST...PASSING OVER 38N 70W.LACK OF A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING 50/50 LOW SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULDBE PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THE SAME TIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO ITSNORTH WILL BE IN RETREAT AND NOT IN A POSITION TO SUPPRESS THE LOWAS WAS THE CASE WITH THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS. WITH THOSE IDEAS INMIND AND THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN UPPER LEVEL PHASING ANDTHEREFORE STORM INTENSITY...SIDED WITH THE IDEA OF A LOW A LITTLEBIT STRONGER THAN THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND TAKING A TRACKSIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE WESTWARD-LEANING 12Z GEFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FROMLATE DAY TUE INTO WED MORNING. ALSO SIDED WITH COLDER TEMPGUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TUE NIGHT ANDHIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR WED." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro individuals are still all over the place, everything from a whiff, to a close miss, to a Boxing Day redux to one solution which is so far west that we actually get close to being dry slotted. Keep in mind, the Boxing Day storm happened during a huge NAO block, which slowed down the progressive pattern enough to nail most of us. Without a block, that storm would never have happened or would have been OTS. We would need a very amplified setup to allow enough digging for a storm far enough west for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This will truly be a 'perfect timing' scenario if a big storm comes to fruition here. Without Atlantic blocking, everything has to come together just 'right' in terms of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Keep in mind, the Boxing Day storm happened during a huge NAO block, which slowed down the progressive pattern enough to nail most of us. Without a block, that storm would never have happened or would have been OTS. We would need a very amplified setup to allow enough digging for a storm far enough west for us.It's always nice to get a history lesson on something you experienced and already knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This will truly be a 'perfect timing' scenario if a big storm comes to fruition here. Without Atlantic blocking, everything has to come together just 'right' in terms of phasing. and the chances of that happening are very low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It's always nice to get a history lesson on something you experienced and already knew. It goes to show why the Boxing Day outcomes on the ensembles are probably wrong without NAO blocking. Read for context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It goes to show why the Boxing Day outcomes on the ensembles are probably wrong without NAO blocking. Read for context. The Euro phases in another vort as it passed our latitude. We need a quicker phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This looks like a Miller A / phasing potential synoptic set-up on the ECMWF to me. Classic split flow / PNA pattern with the northern stream riding up and over the western ridge, diving southeastward in the Central Plains. Undercutting sub tropical jet enhanced by the likely phase 1 MJO wave. The PNA axis as progged is ideal. There's not a much better look you can find for the PNA / EPO region. The Atlantic, as has been the story this winter, isn't pulling its weight. If we had the 50/50 low (don't even need a Greenland block for this), it'd be screaming MECS potential for me. As it stands, the pattern is very obviously full of potential, otherwise we wouldn't be seeing such wild solutions on some of the guidance. The progression could change to Miller B but right now it looks like a Miller A bomb on the ECMWF/ensembles. The trough axis is conducive for the greatest amount of upper divergence near the east coast as well. Of course it's as progged currently. What we don't want to see is the following: 1. Progressively weaker/de-amplified short wave 2. PNA ridge axis less meridional and/or shifting further east than currently depicted; this would place the cyclogenesis zone offshore 3. STJ becoming a non-player, forcing us to rely solely on northern stream s/w deepening which would more likely favor those NE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The PV is much more elongated this run on the GFS, should allow for more amplification. The EURO did this at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS looks way better at 18z, very similar to EURO at this time frame, I think it may even show a better storm, but thats just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The GFS is actually phasing in the northern branch here...The EURO didn't do that until way late in the run... You can see it @ 135, I imagine this is going to show a superbomb for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Looks like the gfs is trying to develop something ahead of the arctic front similar to what we've seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The northern branch is phasing in, a lot of energy on the backside of the trough means it may slow down here and start to explode in the next 12-15 hours, watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 No complete phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 and somehow it still manages to hit Southern New Jersey the hardest with 6-10 inches of snow. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Honestly, if you ignore the specifics, this was actually a better run than even the EURO IMO. It phased the Northern Branch much earlier than the EURO, but it had issues with setting up a new baroclinic zone (it tried, you can see the inverted trough feature over SE PA)...This was a great run overall. Especially when compared to the crap 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This is trending towards splitting the PV, if that comes to fruition.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 No complete phase. Look at the 250jet yanks, it actually began to phase @ 138 hours, it just had issues with redeveloping the low. Look at yesterdays 12z EURO for an example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Um, yes. This is as close as you can get to a MECS for the area by not exactly showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Classic Banana High structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Huge improvement over past couple runs, I don't mind minor improvements from this point on instead of drastic changes. Hard to believe the threat for this is even out there in late March and it would be snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Um, yes. This is as close as you can get to a MECS for the area by not exactly showing it Those temps are crazy for late March... It's good to see the GFS making steps in the right direction. Very close to something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Those temps are crazy for late March... It's good to see the GFS making steps in the right direction. Very close to something big. The cold air source is sick. The Pacific blocking is enormous and is the key to getting opening the arctic floodgates to spill southward. The only way temps would be even a concern is if this thing phases like crazy and pushes very far north and west, which is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Looks like the gfs is trying to develop something ahead of the arctic front similar to what we've seen this winter. I mentioned before I'd watch that setup at around 108 hours...there is definitely a chance something could happen with that....the 18z NAM at 84 hours is very amped...which is typical but its very amped aside from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I mentioned before I'd watch that setup at around 108 hours...there is definitely a chance something could happen with that....the 18z NAM at 84 hours is very amped...which is typical but its very amped aside from that. so we could be looking at something sneaky developing ahead of the A.F with a rain to snow scenario OTHER than the potential MECS for Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 There are several very nice individual members from the 18z GEFS. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f150.html# http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f156.html# http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f162.html# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I mentioned before I'd watch that setup at around 108 hours...there is definitely a chance something could happen with that....the 18z NAM at 84 hours is very amped...which is typical but its very amped aside from that. Yea i was looking at that too, the problem is if that did happen it would probably change the whole setup for this storm just like it did earlier this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 At least we got something to track. I mean it is spring as of tomorrow but it just doesn't feel it ad I'm happy about that. I wish we have a cool summer with no heat waves. Regarding Sundays frontal boundary it definitely pushed north compared to the previous runs. I wonder if that goes north will our main storm mid week next week go north too? Anybody ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Snow or no snow, the cold currently forecasted is incredible Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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