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Southern Ontario Weather Discussion

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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Well the person who does measure the snow off the Nipher probably lacks basic meteorological and mathematical skills, lol. I think EC needs to understand their Nipher is giving them false readings which can skew the seasonal average.

EC has lost every bit of credibility I had left for them. They could ask volunteers to measure snow during storms so they can stay in line with the other stations and not receive any controversy. Oh well! They probably will never get rid of the Nipher.

 

:facepalm:

 

1. Don't impugn the abilities of someone you know nothing about

2. You say it all the time, but how does the nipher "skew" the seasonal average? It's not like all of Toronto's snowfall totals at the different OBS stations for a season are lumped together and averaged.

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WestCoaster

WestCoaster

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EC does have volunteers: trained weather spotters. During storm events they have people call in and report what they've seen and they are also trained to measure properly. These are people who volunteer their time to weather reporting in often rural areas which are outside the scope of the airports. They have to go in for regular training to make sure their ability to weather spot is up to snuff.

 

Snowstorms, we get it. You don't have any faith in EC, or YYZ. I don't have any much faith in Accuweather, for example, to report my locale's weather accurately; as a result, I don't visit their website and I don't complain about them. You can do the same. If you have an issue that truly brings you pain, then file a complaint--don't clog up this thread with your tireless moaning. 

 

I also find it rich that you're criticizing people for their inability to "simply measure" when you yourself reported 27 cm halfway through the storm, only to cut down that number hours of "full on blizzard conditions" (as you reported) snowfall later. Moreover, with the last storm, you were touting over 34 cm only to edit it back to 27cm once you noticed that no one (again) had your inflated number.

 

I think over reporting is just as shady as under reporting. Please don't dismiss others when you are guilty of similar things. 

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harrisale

harrisale

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I also find it rich that you're criticizing people for their inability to "simply measure" when you yourself reported 27 cm halfway through the storm, only to cut down that number hours of "full on blizzard conditions" (as you reported) snowfall later. Moreover, with the last storm, you were touting over 34 cm only to edit it back to 27cm once you noticed that no one (again) had your inflated number.

 

I think over reporting is just as shady as under reporting. Please don't dismiss others when you are guilty of similar things. 

 

:lol:

 

Of all people to complain about measurement techniques :P

 

For the record though that was me reporting "full on blizzard conditions" and I stand by that claim. For about 45 minutes I had less than 100m visibility yesterday. It was great, maybe I'll upload the video tonight if I can edit something together.

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on_wx

on_wx

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Drove to Kitchener this morning for my Uncle's retirement. The 401 was an absolute disaster! A sheet of ice from Mississauga to Cambridge! Honestly, EC should have issued a winter storm watch at the very least as this would have given sanding/salting crews the heads up to sand the highway beforehand.

My mother said the same thing today after her drive home from YYZ

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harrisale

harrisale

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This is old (from Feb. 27) but I just found it today, thought it was interesting as it pertains to the flood discussion we had before the storm.

 

From GRCA:

 

 

February 27, 2014

High risk of spring floods

After a cold and snowy winter, we could be facing a spring of high water. The possibility of flooding in the Grand River system is the highest it’s been in years, according to flood control staff at the Grand River Conservation Authority.

 

Municipal flood co-ordinators were told recently that the snow pack is higher than it has been in about 30 years. Almost the entire river system is covered in ice, as is Lake Erie.

 

"The overall flood risk is high this spring," Stephanie Shifflett, a GRCA water resources engineer, told the flood co-ordinators. "A rapid melt or a rapid melt in combination with rainfall will result in very high runoff, high river flows and break up river ice," said Shifflett at the meeting held at the GRCA office in Cambridge.

 

The high volume of ice in the river system increases the risk of ice jams, she said. Ice jam flooding can result in a very quick rise in water levels which means there is sometimes little opportunity to issue flood warnings. Communities such as Grand Valley, West Montrose, New Hamburg, Ayr, Paris, Brantford, Cayuga and Dunnville are particularly prone to ice jam flooding.

 

A further complicating factor this year is the debris left behind by the December ice storm. As branches and trees are carried downstream, there is the chance that they will clog bridges and culverts, resulting in localized flooding.

 

The GRCA does regular surveys of the amount of snow on the ground at 12 locations throughout the watershed. This gives the flood engineers a good reading on how much water is contained in the snow.

 

This year, many of the snow survey locations are recording two or even three times as much water content in the snowpack as the long-term average. And there’s still several weeks of winter weather ahead before the spring melt.

 

Across the watershed the ground is already saturated with water as a result of the exceptionally wet year in 2013. Much of the ground is frozen. That means that when the spring melt starts, most of the water will run off into the river system rather than soak into the ground.

 

The ice cover on Lake Erie also raises the possibility of ice jam flooding in the Dunnville area. Typically, the snow and ice in the river system melts before the lake ice. Chunks of river ice can build up at river’s mouth at Port Maitland creating a jam that backs water up the river to Dunnville. That last occurred in February 2009, resulting in significant property damage. In the past, the County of Haldimand and the GRCA have called on the Canadian Coast Guard to send an ice breaker to clear a channel in the lake and river. That may be done again this year.

 

To prepare for the spring melt, the GRCA has been lowering the water levels in its reservoirs to create more storage space and allow the reservoirs to capture as much water as possible in order to reduce downstream flows. The reservoirs can sometimes cut flows by 50 per cent. However, there are limits to the amount of water they can hold, so sometimes it becomes necessary to release water from the reservoirs to protect the dams from overtopping.

 

GRCA staff are also keeping a close eye on weather conditions and testing the flood warning system to ensure that it’s working properly. Meetings have been held with municipal and emergency service personnel to ensure they’re ready for the spring melt.

 

In the event of a flood, the GRCA provides flood warnings to municipal flood co-ordinators and emergency services who then carry out the local flood response.

 

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DAFF

DAFF

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EC problem is they rather sit back and issue no warnings. This way they will never be scrutinized for making a not needed warning or statement.  I find NOAA for DTX handles warning criteria almost perfectly, never hyped and used a very monotone voice when describing upcoming events. Severe or not. When they do get bullish everyone knows to take action......

 

I hate social medias twist on the weather, absolutely used for ratings rather than needed information.

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on_wx

on_wx

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A spotter in Kitchener estimated 16cm on Wednesday, but the airport came in at 10.6cm. I think the airports number is more accurate, but there was no way to measure at my location due to blowing snow. It reminds me of that Feb 2013 snow storm when 3 spotters and the university came in between 30-40cm+ in town, but the airport was 19.6cm. Does YKF use nipher? (out of general curiosity)

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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North York, Buttonville, and Downtown all came in with almost exactly the same amount of snow for the March 12 storm (~18cm). Here's the updated seasonal totals. About the hierarchy you'd expect:

 

Buttonville...177.2cm (69.8")

North York...169.4cm (66.7")

Downtown...148.7cm (58.5")

East York.....144.4cm (56.9") 

Pearson.......133.4cm (52.5")

 

13-14 is now the snowiest winter since 08-09. Would need to add about 20-30cm to most of these numbers to surpass 08-09. At this point, that's probably a long shot. Downtown is the exception. Because of the sharp N-S gradient in snowfall in 08-09, they've blown past that winter's total and are good for the snowiest winter since 07-08. No chance of competing with 07-08 this season though.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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A spotter in Kitchener estimated 16cm on Wednesday, but the airport came in at 10.6cm. I think the airports number is more accurate, but there was no way to measure at my location due to blowing snow. It reminds me of that Feb 2013 snow storm when 3 spotters and the university came in between 30-40cm+ in town, but the airport was 19.6cm. Does YKF use nipher? (out of general curiosity)

 

No idea. Only know Pearson does because of that Chris Scott of TWN clip that showed up on their website during the Feb 8, 2013 storm. I have a strong suspicion Hamilton Airport uses a nipher as well. You can make a circumstantial case if:

 

1. The climate station in question is an airport

2. The snowfall numbers consistently come in as less in comparison to nearby, non-airport obs. 

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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North York, Buttonville, and Downtown all came in with almost exactly the same amount of snow for the March 12 storm (~18cm). Here's the updated seasonal totals. About the hierarchy you'd expect:

 

Buttonville...177.2cm (69.8")

North York...169.4cm (66.7")

Downtown...148.7cm (58.5")

East York.....144.4cm (56.9") 

Pearson.......133.4cm (52.5")

 

13-14 is now the snowiest winter since 08-09. Would need to add about 20-30cm to most of these numbers to surpass 08-09. At this point, that's probably a long shot. Downtown is the exception. Because of the sharp N-S gradient in snowfall in 08-09, they've blown past that winter's total and are good for the snowiest winter since 07-08. No chance of competing with 07-08 this season though.

 

My numbers are basically in line with the North York station. Too bad Nipher couldn't portray a reasonable number. It will forever be the lowest among all the stations, lol. Hopefully one day the Nipher will be retired, haha. Would be nice if we got a rare April Snowstorm as its been years since we've had one. Early indications do show a cool start to April before it begins warming up around mid month to potentially above average temperatures. 

 

There is some potential around next weekend for some snow but thats a long way out. If the storm prior to it can create a pseudo -NAO, it can help funnel in some cold anomalies but lets see!  Certainly a more active pattern is starting to take shape which is better than Sunshine all day long. I would rather have that in the summer! 

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Torchageddon

Torchageddon

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I'm glad you guys enjoyed the video as much as I did.

 

Yesterday I got over 5 cm of snow from lake effect snow and flurries. It was moderate about 20% of the time and blowing. At first it started off as a wet and sticky snow and then as it became colder it got fluffy and larger. It just stopped 2 hours ago but it looks like 10 cm was within reach which is very decent for March 15! 2 years ago yesterday, I had a severe thunderstorm in the middle of the night with 1 cm hail just to put all this in perspective. There was very little snow left on the ground, just some small patches in heavily shaded areas with all grass elsewhere. This morning's wind chill will be around -26 to -29C. UV index says 4 or moderate for Wingham ON while at those temperatures...never seen that.

 

Not EC's forecast, but TWN has 10" of snow in the 7 day with above 0 temps. That's something to look forward to!

10" on one day or total through 7 days for whatever location? And above 0 at once? I don't believe the latter.

 

There was a strong streamer last evening near or over Barrie ON:

 

2u75zzc.png

 

The latest GL ice coverage map shows 90-99% ice concentration where 95% of the streamer was over on water and 70-90% ice where the most northern tip of the streamer was. Must have come from far north Lake Huron where there was more break-up because moisture originating from cracked ice alone couldn't produce this.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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With March 2014 1/2 way over, and with another cold shot possibly coming next weekend/early next week, it's time to start taking a look where this month fits into the record books temp. wise at YYZ:

 

1. 2014: -6.1c *

2. 1960  -6.0c

3. 1940  -5.2c

4. 1984  -4.6c

5. 1972  -4.3c

6. 1950  -4.2c

 

* through 3/15.

 

With the mild up this week we'll need a GFS like cold shot to compete with 1960. That being said, a top 5 finish seems to be a lock.

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on_wx

on_wx

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No idea. Only know Pearson does because of that Chris Scott of TWN clip that showed up on their website during the Feb 8, 2013 storm. I have a strong suspicion Hamilton Airport uses a nipher as well. You can make a circumstantial case if:

 

1. The climate station in question is an airport

2. The snowfall numbers consistently come in as less in comparison to nearby, non-airport obs. 

 

If there are any differences between events at YKF and UW they are usually minor, or the seasonal total balances out.

 

First I heard of this, but there was an 18 car pile-up near Arthur yesterday. Seems like this is the winter of pile-ups

http://www.therecord.com/news-story/4415101-poor-weather-blamed-for-18-car-crash-south-of-arthur/

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on_wx

on_wx

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I can't remember if I brought this up, but Woolwich Township in Waterloo Region has installed a new state-of-the-art tornado siren with a 1-2km sound radius in the community of Breslau on the outskirts of Kitchener. Also, township officials will also be re-commissioning the old fire department siren in St. Jacobs to be used for tornado warnings, with both new sirens joining the 3 sirens that have been in Elmira for 10 years. After Goderich, Woolwich is taking tornadoes seriously and has a master plan for tornado sirens in all villages in the township.

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