Snowstorms Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 TWN and Farnell are saying 1977-78 at 81 days but per the EC climo page the old record was 85 days in 1969-70. I forget if the March 2011 snowstorm had a warning or not. If not, then yeah. There was WS watch for the April 2-3, 2005 storm that was never upgarded and a WS warning for the April 2003 icestorm but that was mostly for PL/ZR. Was 1969-70 >1cm everyday for those 85 days? How many days did 1970-71 and 1971-72 have? If i remember correctly, both Winters were extremely cold as well. As it stands, 1970-71 remains as Canada's coldest Winter on record. And March 2011 didn't have any warning as far as I can remember. Just special weather statements. Given what went down last week, its going to take a lot to get a warning out of EC this time around. Especially considering how narrow the swath of heavy snow will be with this system, forecast uncertainty will be higher than usual. True. Its still 3-4 days out so anything is possible atm. We'll know for sure once we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How is the Saturday event looking? I'm thinking maybe 2-5 cm of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Was 1969-70 >1cm everyday for those 85 days? How many days did 1970-71 and 1971-72 have? If i remember correctly, both Winters were extremely cold as well. As it stands, 1970-71 remains as Canada's coldest Winter on record. And March 2011 didn't have any warning as far as I can remember. Just special weather statements. True. Its still 3-4 days out so anything is possible atm. We'll know for sure once we get closer. Was 1969-70 >1cm everyday for those 85 days? .... YES How many days did 1970-71 and 1971-72 have? 77 and 65 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 How is the Saturday event looking? I'm thinking maybe 2-5 cm of wet snow. SREF mean a little over an inch. My bad for starting the thread. Since I started posting on these BBs in 2006 not a one has worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 SREF mean a little over an inch. My bad for starting the thread. Since I started posting on these BBs in 2006 not a one has worked out. I started a Toronto Blue Jays thread in May 2009 at Eastern after their hot start to the season at 27-14. Needless to say, that backfired as the Jays struggled to a 75-87 record. That's why I'll never start a thread again. The new 00z NAM is still north, but it's slowly inching south with the wintery precip. The 18z GFS shows around an inch of snow for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 I started a Toronto Blue Jays thread in May 2009 at Eastern after their hot start to the season at 27-14. Needless to say, that backfired as the Jays struggled to a 75-87 record. That's why I'll never start a thread again. The new 00z NAM is still north, but it's slowly inching south with the wintery precip. The 18z GFS shows around an inch of snow for the GTA. lol, I remember. Cito was already planning the parade route. I'll take the inch. Get's downtown to over 150cm for the season. 150cm has always been the threshold for me between a marginally snowy winter and a truly snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Lambasted by wind, which was probably gusting a good 60kmh, and snow while walking home. Nice slap in the face after the last 2 days of stellar temps (which really aren't that good, but anything 0-5 feels warm and fuzzy after a miserable temp winter). I love this time of year when people are out in tshirts because it's just a hair above zero. Once autumn rolls around anything below 15 is coat weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 0z euro has us on the southern end of the accumulating snow swath with 2-4" for the GTA assuming there are no thin warm layers above 850mb. 4-7" accums are up towards YOW/YUL. On the GEM it starts as a thump of SN and then goes over to ZR. We would probably be talking 0.2-0.4" of ZR on this run if you took the GEM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 0z euro has us on the southern end of the accumulating snow swath with 2-4" for the GTA assuming there are no thin warm layers above 850mb. 4-7" accums are up towards YOW/YUL. On the GEM it starts as a thump of SN and then goes over to ZR. We would probably be talking 0.2-0.4" of ZR on this run if you took the GEM verbatim. Looks like the NAM finally came south a bit. I think if we contain the discussion to this thread my storm thread hex will be neutralized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Was 1969-70 >1cm everyday for those 85 days? .... YES How many days did 1970-71 and 1971-72 have? 77 and 65 respectively. The 70s featured some of the best Winters of the 20th century. Would be great if a decade like that could be repeated. And it looks like 101 days will be the final count. YYZ came in with 1cm yesterday. From Dec 9 to March 19th, amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 GFS yields 3-4" now for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 SREF mean which had been stuck at slightly more than an inch for the longest time jumped to 2.5" at 15z. 12z EURO came south some with its snow band as well. Looks like we may have some late minute luck with this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Unless we can nab a major weather event (anything exciting or 8"+ of snow) I'd much rather warm and dry at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Unless we can nab a major weather event (anything exciting or 8"+ of snow) I'd much rather warm and dry at this stage. I'll be back for this (assuming it happens) so I'll thoroughly enjoy anything that's more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Kind of surprised we made it to 101 days. Thought the streak would end at 99 days, looked like less than 50% snowcover around here with a lot of bare lawns (albeit some snow covered ones too) . I guess it all comes down to who's measuring and where. Gusty winds this afternoon were fun, peak gust of 59km/h at YYZ but I think the sustained 47km/h is more impressive. Love it when the wind gets cranking and you don't have to calculate a windchill! Happy Equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 RGEM looks good for ~6hrs of SN/+SN. Mixing line just south of the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 NAM also in the RGEM/euro camp. Cobb data has a tick over 5" of snow followed by some FZDZ at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 I noticed the 18z NAM text extract showed some convective qpf. Wouldn't be surprised to see some intense rates late tomorrow evening. However, the fast movement of the storm I think is going to preclude anything too impresssive. First call is for 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 With the strengthening vort and nice mid level moisture feed I feel pretty certain that we will see a swath of 5-8" in the core of this band despite the fast movement. Some models(including the euro) are hinting at some big times rates from this thing. Recent meso models have wanted to take this band north of the GTA over the last few runs. If they do trend south just a bit more it could get really interesting around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'll be back for this (assuming it happens) so I'll thoroughly enjoy anything that's more than an inch. Welcome back! Given you haven't seen snow in a while, I can understand that. I would be blindsided if we saw more than 5-6" out of this. My call is 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Thinking main snows will be north. Several models indicating a Collingwood jackpot zone. Going with 4-7cm IMBY for the moment unless there's some last minute wiggles. As for the heavy snow area I'm thinking around 15cm is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Welcome back! Given you haven't seen snow in a while, I can understand that. I would be blindsided if we saw more than 5-6" out of this. My call is 3" Thanks. Just as things were looking good the models all of a sudden shift back north. I'll make a final call after the 12z suite. Anything I can push around with a shovel would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z NAM/RGEM backed off the almost complete whiff they were showing at 6z but still looks like the best snow swath will be to the north. Very tight gradient though. A small shift to the south and we could get a surprise 6" snowfall. A small shift to the north, and we may get virtually nothing. I'll lock in a 1-3" call, with an inch near Lk Ontario and 3" along a Snowstorms-OB line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z NAM/RGEM backed off the almost complete whiff they were showing at 6z but still looks like the best snow swath will be to the north. Very tight gradient though. A small shift to the south and we could get a surprise 6" snowfall. A small shift to the north, and we may get virtually nothing. I'll lock in a 1-3" call, with an inch near Lk Ontario and 3" along a Snowstorms-OB line. I have one SREF member showing nearly 7" and the rest are like 0.25" ... no I am not expecting anything here ... my point is this basically says that the right element will make all the difference. Hope you can cash in on a 'surprise' snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 YYZ came in with 1cm on the ground yesterday. Snow cover days now up to 102 . I thought 100 was going to be the cutoff, but wow! If it survived yesterday, then tonights snowfall would edge us above 105 days possibly. Let's see. Its tough to make a preliminary call for tonights event. Any small shift either way could have huge implications as to how much we see. I'm going for ~4cm. After this, I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 EC just issued a freezing rain warning for Toronto, lol http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on61#768cwto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 EC just issued a freezing rain warning for Toronto, lol http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on61#768cwto Not a bad call IMO considering the razor gradient, heavy rates (for a time) and the fact that much of the public will be unaware after such spring-like few days. Speaking of razor thin gradient, looks like some of you guys may be in for 10cm+ while I could be in for a DAB. Looks like I'll be in for the brunt of the ZR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 18z NAM came south a bit, although the gradient remains really tight with areas in and around barrie cashing in on QPF AOB 1" while the northern GTA only receives about 0.2-0.3" of QPF. Based on the look to the RAP/NAM soundings in and around the GTA, I would expect more of a SN/PL mix as opposed to any ZR accums like EC is suggesting(probably based on the look to the RGEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Latest run of the HRRR looks pretty messy. Whatever P-type it ends up being, rates are going to be impressive with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Currently JUST below zero according to my front yard thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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