snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 EC with the snowsquall watch now. Best guess is that this still falls apart a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Holding steady over the escarpment, winds really picking up ahead of this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Well, that lasted all of 10 minutes. Put it down as DAB, nothing really stuck. Except on existing snow. Not even a car topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Incredible gusts, sustained of 55 km/h with easily 70-75 gusts. SN in north york right now, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Vis down to 400m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Huge fluffy flakes! Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Lasted 20 minutes, dusting on all surfaces , very nice surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 What a morning, I had SN on and off all the way up to 3:30 pm and some gusty conditions. Flake size was pretty good. 1 cm of new fluff by 9:30 am and then 3 cm by 12:30 pm. Now after the latest burst and sadly likely the last, its 3.5 cm of new snow! Pretty good for a forecast calling for less than 1 cm. There did seem to be some convective action going on in the sky during this. At 3:17 pm, we had +SN for 2-3 minutes which is the heaviest I've ever seen for March 25. It became beautiful blue sky as the snowflakes were winding down making for a rare and amazing sight seeing all those flakes with a blue backdrop. Taking a picture wouldn't do justice...it would have to be a super high end camera and a skilled pro to pull a pic off. Well, that lasted all of 10 minutes. Put it down as DAB, nothing really stuck. Except on existing snow. Not even a car topper. Same here, it collected 1 cm on the tops of cars and hoods and literally in 20 seconds once that sun came out, it was droplets of water!! Nothing is collecting on the pavement, even though the sun was blocked by overcast during the morning and the temperature was -5ºC and lower. Going down to -15ºC tomorrow morning with a wind chill of -23C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 OT but does anyone know of any good maps with plotted observations for Atlantic Canada? Would like to track the Nor'easter but NOAA products don't really stretch that far. System is really getting going. The Weather Network just reported a 15mb drop in 6 hours. Baccaro Point, NS winds: 78km/h gust 105 km/h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 OT but does anyone know of any good maps with plotted observations for Atlantic Canada? Would like to track the Nor'easter but NOAA products don't really stretch that far. System is really getting going. The Weather Network just reported a 15mb drop in 6 hours. Baccaro Point, NS winds: 78km/h gust 105 km/h Unbelievable storm for Atlantic Canada. Just brutal for the end of March. Where's spring at? This constant cold and dry weather is getting aggravating now. And this is probably the best link I could find. http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html#goes_east And this; http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Thanks for the links, I guess that'll have to do. Was hoping to find some hourly-updated wind and pressure plots but I guess they just don't exist. Baccaro Point 11am obs Wind: NE 82 gust 116 km/h Sustained tropical storm force winds, gusting oh-so-close to category 1. Man, I would love to be out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 Sarnia, London, and KW all reporting -SN. TD at YYZ around -8. Might get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 -SN here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 A band of +SNPL looks to move through the region along and north of the warm front over the next few hours. Could get interesting briefly before spring returns for a bit this week. The 4/3-4/5 threat still has my interest with that hudson bay block step, -PNA and very strong cut off moving through. Would like to see that high trend stronger over Que for a sig mixing event. Definitely something to watch for some icing around here, although some/mostly rain is probably a good bet given the pac origin of the airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I got SN (high end) during the afternoon on and off like on Tuesday. Everytime I keep thinking I've seen the last of SN or more, it comes. It didn't collect on anything other than trees and the snowpack. Overcast and 0ºC for today. I'm thinking about ENSO analogues and was wondering for my area how the Spring, Summer, and beyond did for temperatures and storms in 1997. 1997 had a super Nino and things are on track for one thus far for 2014. March was way warmer than this current one, but snowy. April starting out was similar to 2010 but average overall. May was much colder than normal, especially the lows where using the Hanover station, it got down to -0.5ºC as late as May 24 overnight. It was a very up and down month which might indicate it was stormy. My prediction is this May will also be very active severe wise. A ton of rain. It started getting warmer by the end of May to average. I think we'll get a way above average end of May. These months may be a good guide for this Spring with an added coolness factored in. Looking closely at June which is my favorite month, 1997 had a great June in my region. I'd take it without complaints as its miles better than June 2013. It was amazingly constant with every single day having a high above 20ºC without too much flux. The lows near the start of the month were a bit cool but got right up there by the 20th. Had above normal rains but I believe thunderstorms caused the highest totals. A staggering 21 days had a temperature 25ºC or above and 2 days 30ºC or above. The last thing I'd change is more 30ºC+ days. Overall a much above average June which is my type. I really hope 2014's June is like 1997. While I'm at it, I'll list my favorite months for weather (and general) starting from the best to worst: June July August May April September March October December January February November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Huge snowflakes came through with the front late tonight which were the size of golf balls. Dave P says the flakes in Elora were 5-6cm, and EC met Rob Kuhn said he saw orange-sized flakes from Kitchener to Guelph. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Huge snowflakes came through with the front late tonight which were the size of golf balls. Dave P says the flakes in Elora were 5-6cm, and EC met Rob Kuhn said he saw orange-sized flakes from Kitchener to Guelph. Crazy! For real? I saw some big flakes up here a bit around 10:00 pm but nothing that didn't already happen yesterday. I haven't ever seen flakes larger than 1.6 inches personally so 6 cm+ would be over 2X larger than that...hard to imagine. That should have made the news, and I want pics and/or video pronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 What are the chances the GFS scores a coup for tomorrow night? 1%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 What are the chances the GFS scores a coup for tomorrow night? 1%? The euro ENS mean slp track goes from E KY through DCA and off the delmarva. ~7 members get significant snows up into our area in addition to several graze jobs w/ WNY hits. Most members have a very sharp NW cutoff of precip, so it's likely that the accumulating snow swath is very narrow and concentrated where the best banding and evapo cooling sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 The euro ENS mean slp track goes from E KY through DCA and off the delmarva. ~7 members get significant snows up into our area in addition to several graze jobs w/ WNY hits. Most members have a very sharp NW cutoff of precip, so it's likely that the accumulating snow swath is very narrow and concentrated where the best banding and evapo cooling sets up. Nice new avatar. The ice storm I presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I got SN (high end) during the afternoon on and off like on Tuesday. Everytime I keep thinking I've seen the last of SN or more, it comes. It didn't collect on anything other than trees and the snowpack. Overcast and 0ºC for today. I'm thinking about ENSO analogues and was wondering for my area how the Spring, Summer, and beyond did for temperatures and storms in 1997. 1997 had a super Nino and things are on track for one thus far for 2014. March was way warmer than this current one, but snowy. April starting out was similar to 2010 but average overall. May was much colder than normal, especially the lows where using the Hanover station, it got down to -0.5ºC as late as May 24 overnight. It was a very up and down month which might indicate it was stormy. My prediction is this May will also be very active severe wise. A ton of rain. It started getting warmer by the end of May to average. I think we'll get a way above average end of May. These months may be a good guide for this Spring with an added coolness factored in. Looking closely at June which is my favorite month, 1997 had a great June in my region. I'd take it without complaints as its miles better than June 2013. It was amazingly constant with every single day having a high above 20ºC without too much flux. The lows near the start of the month were a bit cool but got right up there by the 20th. Had above normal rains but I believe thunderstorms caused the highest totals. A staggering 21 days had a temperature 25ºC or above and 2 days 30ºC or above. The last thing I'd change is more 30ºC+ days. Overall a much above average June which is my type. I really hope 2014's June is like 1997. While I'm at it, I'll list my favorite months for weather (and general) starting from the best to worst: June July August May April September March October December January February November For Toronto: September August June May July October January December February November March April For West Coast: July August September June October May December January April November February March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Nice new avatar. The ice storm I presume? You guessed right. A much needed change... Regarding tomorrow's storm threat, the 12z GEFS ensembles have a much more interesting look then the 6z run, with every member showing at least a minor hit for the horseshoe. The Euro ENS package is still loaded with graze jobs, although that healthy defo-band is not too far away and has plenty of atlantic moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 You guessed right. A much needed change... Regarding tomorrow's storm threat, the 12z GEFS ensembles have a much more interesting look then the 6z run, with every member showing at least a minor hit for the horseshoe. The Euro ENS package is still loaded with graze jobs, although that healthy defo-band is not too far away and has plenty of atlantic moisture to work with. The 15z SREF looks intriguing bringing between 0.25 and 0.50" qpf in the GTA. A slight shift 50 miles further N will mean the difference between getting ~5cm or just a few flurries. Long range isn't very pretty for those wishing for some warmth in the region. With the GOA warm pool intact, the -EPO/PNA + looks to continue for the foreseeable future. The latest Stratospheric temperature analysis shows some decent warming across the atmosphere which points towards a more -AO/NAO regime developing. Whats your take? The warmth in the ENSO regions continues to be impressive with the 30 day avg SOI at -12.00 and the MJO staying within El Nino Phases. However, I'm reluctant to push towards any strong El Nino event like some people are hyping. Atmospherically speaking, we haven't seen any huge responses towards a strong El Nino event. And climatology doesn't favour a strong El Nino. On average we see one every 8-10 years and the last time we saw one was back in 2009-10. The Sun is also key. We saw a huge spike in Sunspots/Solar Flux last month though its calmed down a bit of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Latest GFS went south/narrower snow. I think that's the nail in the coffin as it was holding onto the idea of 3-4" for us until now. NAM follows a similar track, which is a shame as it dumps over a foot along the south shore of Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The 15z SREF looks intriguing bringing between 0.25 and 0.50" qpf in the GTA. A slight shift 50 miles further N will mean the difference between getting ~5cm or just a few flurries. Long range isn't very pretty for those wishing for some warmth in the region. With the GOA warm pool intact, the -EPO/PNA + looks to continue for the foreseeable future. The latest Stratospheric temperature analysis shows some decent warming across the atmosphere which points towards a more -AO/NAO regime developing. Whats your take? The warmth in the ENSO regions continues to be impressive with the 30 day avg SOI at -12.00 and the MJO staying within El Nino Phases. However, I'm reluctant to push towards any strong El Nino event like some people are hyping. Atmospherically speaking, we haven't seen any huge responses towards a strong El Nino event. And climatology doesn't favour a strong El Nino. On average we see one every 8-10 years and the last time we saw one was back in 2009-10. The Sun is also key. We saw a huge spike in Sunspots/Solar Flux last month though its calmed down a bit of late. Yes we have seen a pretty impressive upper PV split, along with a 1-30mb +u wind reversal. Not sure this is what is bringing down the NAO/AO as we haven't seen enough downwelling so far... it is more correlated to the arhchembault progression that is going on as we speak. Regarding the el nino, it doesn't really matter if its climatologically favoured or not. We are currently seeing one of the most impressive OKW's in modern history, on par with '97 in terms of march sub-sfc anomalies. We should see upwelling relax over the next 6-10 days as the MJO moves through the eastern IO/maritimes continent. This look favours +CHI over the tropical pacific with mean easterlies in the low levels. Once the uplift can edge further east, were going to see the sfc anomaly reflection spike rapidly. Am feeling pretty confident on strong nino departures(+1.5c or more for at least two months), whether it is classified as an official strong nino or not. LR Models along with -PDO/+AMO climatology would favour a drop off in SST's on the ENSO front as we get into the fall and winter. Specifics with timing, etc are obviously going to be difficult to nail down and will have huge implications on next winter for S On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Wonder if the SREF mean can finish on a strong note this winter. 2.7" for tonight but every other model is showing bupkis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Wonder if the SREF mean can finish on a strong note this winter. 2.7" for tonight but every other model is showing bupkis. The HRRR is actually coming in with a better look. Nice looking band moves through between 01-04z. Maybe we can pull off a trace-2"? KBUF looks like its going to get hammered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 The HRRR is actually coming in with a better look. Nice looking band moves through between 01-04z. Maybe we can pull off a trace-2"? KBUF looks like its going to get hammered again. hrrr_ref_toronto_14-1.png Misses to the south and north lately have been a bit demoralizing. Would be nice to cash in on at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Wonder if the SREF mean can finish on a strong note this winter. 2.7" for tonight but every other model is showing bupkis. BAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Misses to the south and north lately have been a bit demoralizing. Would be nice to cash in on at least something.Gradient of doom showing up on the RAP with well over an inch of QPF through the heart of buffalo and barely a trace of QPF over here. Tough to complain after a well above normal winter in the snowfall department, but it is a major tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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