When Will SNE See The First

[weatherwiz]

With severe weather season quickly approaching us it's time to start having some fun and making some predictions.  If anything, we can start to get in the mind set of severe weather.  

 

What does complicate things is how the SPC will be going to a new format with more risks categories (marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high) but for now we'll just stick with the old stuff.  

 

Vote away!

 

 

[ice1972]

Yeah SVR!!!!

[weatherwiz]

I went Mod risk between June 1st and 15th b/c if I take Calc II over the summer the possible dates are from June 1st until the first week of July....so I would expect something big in that time

[ice1972]

I went Mod risk between June 1st and 15th b/c if I take Calc II over the summer the possible dates are from June 1st until the first week of July....so I would expect something big in that time

Lol only a would say that....so true though...gotta say shoveling this pack is a pleasure....sorry OT

[weatherwiz]

Lol only a would say that....so true though...gotta say shoveling this pack is a pleasure....sorry OT

 

I'm so glad I don't have to shovel anymore (except my girlfriend's parking spot out)...that's how I REALLY further hurt my back...during that January stretch in 2011. 

[ineedsnow]

we should go chasing sometime this year 

I went Mod risk between June 1st and 15th b/c if I take Calc II over the summer the possible dates are from June 1st until the first week of July....so I would expect something big in that time

[weatherwiz]

we should go chasing sometime this year 

 

I would love that!

 

I should have my license by then too...eligible for it late May!

[ice1972]

I'm so glad I don't have to shovel anymore (except my girlfriend's parking spot out)...that's how I REALLY further hurt my back...during that January stretch in 2011. 

 

My back is bad too but I go slow and enjoy it.....and that 2011 pack in Jan was epic.....I keep checking my photos from that year and compare the current pack to that to gauge where we're at.....can we keep going?

 

Oh looking forward to May......SVR season while supposedly lame in SNE is epic compared to the San Francisco Bay Area which is zero SVR season....or snow season for that matter...lol

[weatherwiz]

My back is bad too but I go slow and enjoy it.....and that 2011 pack in Jan was epic.....I keep checking my photos from that year and compare the current pack to that to gauge where we're at.....can we keep going?

 

Oh looking forward to May......SVR season while supposedly lame in SNE is epic compared to the San Francisco Bay Area which is zero SVR season....or snow season for that matter...lol

 

Unfortunately with the time of year we're getting into we'll probably lose it fairly quickly.  

[weatherwiz]

I actually had a dream last night we were in a high risk 

[weatherwiz]

Really?

 

No slight risks being issued?  

 

That would certainly blow

[TalcottWx]

None for all 3

[dendrite]

What about enhanced and marginal risks?

[weatherwiz]

What about enhanced and marginal risks?

 

I was going to throw that in but I wasn't 100% sure if they actually are going ahead with that.  I know there was the thread on the main side and it was mentioned in the May 1st countdown thread but I was looking at SPC site and couldn't really find anything confirming it.

[dendrite]

None for all 3

Drizzle days: 34

Thunder days: 2

[TalcottWx]

Drizzle days: 34

Thunder days: 2

If were talking Logan drizzle days might reach 80

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

If we're talking Logan drizzle days will probably exceed 80

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I can't even remember the last time we had hail here lol. Severe weather has been weak here for a while.

[ineedsnow]

thats awesome I can drive I dont care I get to take days off when I want!! Met you once during Earl and had alot of fun a severe event I feel would be even better though

I would love that!

 

I should have my license by then too...eligible for it late May!

[IsentropicLift]

At least down this way moderate risks seem to usually bust. Slight risks are a dime a dozen.

[weatherwiz]

thats awesome I can drive I dont care I get to take days off when I want!! Met you once during Earl and had alot of fun a severe event I feel would be even better though

 

That was such a great time!  

[weatherwiz]

Time to bump...we're getting close to May

[Tornadomachine]

I was going to throw that in but I wasn't 100% sure if they actually are going ahead with that.  I know there was the thread on the main side and it was mentioned in the May 1st countdown thread but I was looking at SPC site and couldn't really find anything confirming it.

I believe that it will be implemented in November.  I asked the SPC lead when I visited OU in January, he said they would be implementing by the end of the year.  I'm certain it will be after the majority of this severe season.

[weatherwiz]

I believe that it will be implemented in November.  I asked the SPC lead when I visited OU in January, he said they would be implementing by the end of the year.  I'm certain it will be after the majority of this severe season.

 

That makes more sense...doesn't make much sense to implement that during the heart of the season.

[andyhb]

A high risk in SNE?

 

Considering 6/1/11 was only a slight and 6/9/53 likely wouldn't have been a high either...pretty much impossible.

[CT Rain]

A high risk in SNE?

 

Considering 6/1/11 was only a slight and 6/9/53 likely wouldn't have been a high either...pretty much impossible.

 

5/31/98 featured high risk in the western counties of SNE.

[weatherwiz]

A high risk in SNE?

 

Considering 6/1/11 was only a slight and 6/9/53 likely wouldn't have been a high either...pretty much impossible.

 

In order for it to happen you have to be looking at a setup which has strong potential to produce a very strong derecho with widespread destructive winds...we aren't going to get a high risk for tornado setups

[andyhb]

5/31/98 featured high risk in the western counties of SNE.

 

True, although it was mostly a NY/PA deal.

 

In order for it to happen you have to be looking at a setup which has strong potential to produce a very strong derecho with widespread destructive winds...we aren't going to get a high risk for tornado setups

 

Considering high risks for derechos are quite rare, there would likely have to be a severe one in progress and then moving into SNE in order for an upgrade. For tornadoes, yeah that seems almost impossible that you would ever get one that far NE. 5/31/85 was an incredibly rare event and even it was only into PA and western NY.

[weatherwiz]

True, although it was mostly a NY/PA deal.

 

 

Considering high risks for derechos are quite rare, there would likely have to be a severe one in progress and then moving into SNE in order for an upgrade. For tornadoes, yeah that seems almost impossible that you would ever get one that far NE. 5/31/85 was an incredibly rare event and even it was only into PA and western NY.

 

Part of the issue too in this part of the country is the land mass is much smaller than that out west.  It would be incredibly difficult to really verify high end moderate or high risk's in this part of the country b/c it would be very difficult to verify the number of severe weather reports you'd like to see.  

 

IMO, seeing a high risk in New England would mean an outbreak much worse than what you would see out west b/c that would mean pretty much every single town/city has some sort of damaging weather event (hail, damaging winds, or tornado damage)

[weatherwiz]

Well we might see our first SEE TEXT tomorrow at least