REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Will make it to FB Saving that map just for giggles since that has a slim chance at verifying at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 1040mb high overhead hour 216, think it will keep the miller A suppressed this run. Going to look like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Lower single digit 2m temps over NYC hour 216. Below zero NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah because people like you posted it here. It can easily get in the wrong hands. Yes I`m the Edward Snowden of WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yes I`m the Edward Snowden of WB BAN PB GFI!! kids that post this stuff are a shame to the weather community. Weather is like a woman, think you have it all figured out and nope you get a reality check and you dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro ensembles are suppressed with the ladder threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 If that's off by 10 degrees , that prob still breaks some records . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 NWS has really backed off the cold as we approach the possible storm early next week (likely bc of that storm). Sunday now showing snow and mid 30s as opposed to clear and low 20s. Looks like the only rough patch is going to be Friday with a low that morning in the teens and high in the 20s. I can take that. Nationals first spring training game against the Mets is Friday. SPRING IS COMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 If that's off by 10 degrees , that prob still breaks some records . I want to see the algo that puts the center of the cold over NYC proper. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 EPS Euro control run snow through day 10 since someone will post it if I don't anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 NWS has really backed off the cold as we approach the possible storm early next week (likely bc of that storm). Sunday now showing snow and mid 30s as opposed to clear and low 20s. Looks like the only rough patch is going to be Friday with a low that morning in the teens and high in the 20s. I can take that. Nationals first spring training game against the Mets is Friday. SPRING IS COMING. Not with the MJO in Phase 8-1 in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 If that's off by 10 degrees , that prob still breaks some records . IMO, there is almost certainly a problem with the algorithm used in generating those maps. If one recalls, back in January, those maps were showing -15° cold for the NYC area. The actual ECMWF output showed lows as low as -3°. The final outcome was a 4° minimum temperature. NYC has never had a subzero low temperature in March since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. Overall, though, the signal for severe cold is there. If NYC can get into the single digits, that would be notable cold. Since 1900, NYC has had only 6 days on which the temperature fell below 10° in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's cool to see the cold air not modifying much since the most of the Great Lakes are frozen over. The 4km cuts off at 6z Friday, but you can see how having Erie, Huron, and Superior frozen will keep the temps colder than they would be otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 IMO, there is almost certainly a problem with the algorithm used in generating those maps. If one recalls, back in January, those maps were showing -15° cold for the NYC area. The actual ECMWF output showed lows as low as -3°. The final outcome was a 4° minimum temperature. NYC has never had a subzero low temperature in March since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. Overall, though, the signal for severe cold is there. If NYC can get into the single digits, that would be notable cold. Since 1900, NYC has had only 6 days on which the temperature fell below 10° in March. I think he uses the sounding to create those maps, the problem is the Euro is just too cold in the urban areas . It was too bullish all winter at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not with the MJO in Phase 8-1 in March Uh, yes Spring is coming, regardless of the MJO (which might stay in 7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Uh, yes Spring is coming, regardless of the MJO (which might stay in 7). No the MJO will stall in 7 until next week then it will move into Phase 8/1 in Mid-March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's cool to see the cold air not modifying much since the most of the Great Lakes are frozen over. The 4km cuts off at 6z Friday, but you can see how having Erie, Huron, and Superior frozen will keep the temps colder than they would be otherwise. temp60.gif 140224-frozen-great-lakes-jsw-741a_bd68ed3c2bcb470b4b30207895d62700.nbcnews-ux-1280-1000.jpg Yea and the ice cover is increasing again... it jumped 10% in a day. Some of the ice that opened back up in the last few days will help it freeze even more now. We could see 90% over the next couple of weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Uh, yes Spring is coming, regardless of the MJO (which might stay in 7). Don't you know that the MJO is the miracle cure for all your weather ails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Don't you know that the MJO is the miracle cure for all your weather ails? he missed that part of the lesson when he skipped class that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yea and the ice cover is increasing again... it jumped 10% in a day. Some of it opening back up the last few days will help it freeze even more now. We could see 90% over the next couple of weeks The trajectory for us will be mostly over the frozen parts of the Lakes coming up so a WNW wind wont modify as much as it normally does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The trajectory for us will be mostly over the frozen parts of the Lakes coming up so a WNW wind wont modify as much as it normally does. gfsNE_sfc_temp_066.gif Yea exactly, and the coldest 850s will be over us at night unlike in January. It would be funny if the Park somehow gets below freezing in March after this long streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think he uses the sounding to create those maps, the problem is the Euro is just too cold in the urban areas . It was too bullish all winter at KNYC Why would he do that given that the 2 meter temperatures are available? IMO, one should try to produce maps that fairly represent what the model is indicating. The problem is that such maps could again show up in the social media. One could hear reports that the Euro is forecasting a significant subzero Arctic outbreak for NYC in March and its nearby suburbs. The problem is not just that one is dealing in the long-range where there's a lot of uncertainty. The problem also is that the Euro is very cold, but not nearly that cold. Those producing the inaccurate maps bear some degree of responsibility for what's mistakenly disseminated through the social media. Similar issues also arise where freezing rain, for example, is included in the snow accumulations on numerous maps. IMO, fewer, but more accurate maps would be preferable. Quality should take precedence over quantity of maps. To simply lump freezing rain in as snow, not differentiate between snow/sleet (a fairly widespread issue), and to use a proxy for 2 meter readings when that proxy clearly is flawed isn't very constructive. One must wonder what the ECMWF would think if it knew how its model was being represented. Previously, the NWS and also NBC's Glenn Schwartz pushed back hard against the social media information. I empathize with them, as their work is complicated by what's being disseminated, particularly when some of the maps are not entirely representative of what the underlying model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think he uses the sounding to create those maps, the problem is the Euro is just too cold in the urban areas . It was too bullish all winter at KNYCthey make outright incorrect maps to make money off of weenies who don't know any better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 they make outright incorrect maps to make money off of weenies who don't know any better Besides their snow maps the low temps the Euro shows on wb are usually way to cold during arctic outbreaks. I don't understand what they are using to come up with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 they make outright incorrect maps to make money off of weenies who don't know any better This is just outright ignorant and arrogant Bistardi doesn't make these maps Ryan Maue who came out of the naval jet lab created them and is as bright as they come I'm sick of this crud. You haven't a clue about what they do as to why they so it. If you hate then so much write t you're own algo create you're own business and website and see if anyone pays you for you're constant dismissive nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Why would he do that given that the 2 meter temperatures are available? IMO, one should try to produce maps that fairly represent what the model is indicating. The problem is that such maps could again show up in the social media. One could hear reports that the Euro is forecasting a significant subzero Arctic outbreak for NYC in March and its nearby suburbs. The problem is not just that one is dealing in the long-range where there's a lot of uncertainty. The problem also is that the Euro is very cold, but not nearly that cold. Those producing the inaccurate maps bear some degree of responsibility for what's mistakenly disseminated through the social media. Similar issues also arise where freezing rain, for example, is included in the snow accumulations on numerous maps. IMO, fewer, but more accurate maps would be preferable. Quality should take precedence over quantity of maps. To simply lump freezing rain in as snow, not differentiate between snow/sleet (a fairly widespread issue), and to use a proxy for 2 meter readings when that proxy clearly is flawed isn't very constructive. One must wonder what the ECMWF would think if it knew how its model was being represented. Previously, the NWS and also NBC's Glenn Schwartz pushed back hard against the social media information. I empathize with them, as their work is complicated by what's being disseminated, particularly when some of the maps are not entirely representative of what the underlying model is showing. I'm curious. When Glen Schwartz pushed back against WB fir the over the top map. Why didn't he admonish ncep for there cfsv2 snow map that had 20 inch snow depths as well. We get it the maps are over the top and the fact that is was on social media irked sone people. But the day that anyone wants to thwart free speech is a day we should all never Wana see Sorry don not directed towards you. I have tremendous respect for you. I just had to get that off my chest mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Besides their snow maps' the low temps the Euro shows on wb are usually way to cold during arctic outbreaks. I don't understand what they are using to come up with those temps. I notice a similar error that also shows up on the wunderground maps when there is snowcover in the area. It must be some type of processing error which was really obvious back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is just outright ignorant and arrogant Bistardi doesn't make these maps Ryan Maue who came out of the naval jet lab created them and is as bright as they come I'm sick of this crud. You haven't a clue about what they do as to why they so it. If you hate then so much write t you're own algo create you're own business and website and see if anyone pays you for you're constant dismissive nature Since you speak to JB , can you politely ask if he knows why the low temps are usually too cold on the wb models during arctic outbreaks? I know Maue is the one who's involved with the model part of wb, but maybe JB knows. Forget the snow maps..I don't pay attention to any of them to begin with whether is be wb, sv or anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I notice a similar error that also shows up on the wunderground maps when there is snowcover in the area. It must be some type of processing error which was really obvious back in January. Screen shot 2014-02-25 at 6.10.41 PM.png Thanks for the response. In January it was very obvious with low temps in our area (Nassau) being 10-20 degrees too cold when I was looking at the Euro. And I'm not complaining about wb, I was kind of just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is just outright ignorant and arrogant Bistardi doesn't make these maps Ryan Maue who came out of the naval jet lab created them and is as bright as they come I'm sick of this crud. You haven't a clue about what they do as to why they so it. If you hate then so much write t you're own algo create you're own business and website and see if anyone pays you for you're constant dismissive nature agree with this JB can get carried away sometimes but overall is still pretty good in my book and has nailed this pattern starting January and ive heard lots of things about how smart that guy ryan maue is as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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